by Yoram Ettinger
The following
interlinked assumptions are divorced from reality: the rising tide of
the Islamist forces on the Arab Street is led by politically pragmatic
and moderate Islam; the surging Islamic forces aim to eschew violence,
moderate the Arab Street, focus on economic growth rather than the
spread of Islam and engage the U.S. strategically; the Arab Street is
experiencing an "Arab Spring" whereby democracy-seeking youth,
independents and moderate Islamists collaborate in the effort to topple
despotic regimes.
In Iraq, in the
aftermath of the U.S. withdrawal, and irrespective of the U.S. campaign
of democratization, the al-Maliki regime is increasingly dominated by
Iran, the fiercest enemy of the U.S. Baghdad has become the most
critical channel of Iranian military supply to the Assad regime, and
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard is gaining control over Iraq’s domestic
affairs.
In Egypt, contrary to
Western delusions, President Morsi is significantly influenced by the
Muslim Brotherhood’s supreme guide, Mohammed Badie, and the
Brotherhood’s first choice for president, Khairat el-Shater, the former
deputy supreme guide. Thus, Morsi’s proposed constitution would
transform Egypt into an increasingly Shariah state. It would upgrade the
authority of Muslim clerics over civil rights, provide for a
Saudi-style “morality police,” impose 7th century punishments for
adultery and theft, etc. Muslim Brotherhood thugs incite violence,
purposely, to bring the opposition to submission.
In Libya, Western hopes
for an Arab Spring have been shattered by the murder of the U.S.
ambassador and three State Department officials and by an unprecedented
civil war. Following 42 years of Gadhafi's dictatorship, Libyans are
afflicted by tribal, ethnic, ideological and religious fragmentation,
violence and terrorism. For instance, the Arabs of the town of Misrata
slaughtered the black African residents of the neighboring town of
Tawargha. The country has become an arena for daily battles among armed
militias, terrorists and Islamists.
In Yemen, al-Qaida
suicide bombing has increased since the toppling of the 33 year regime
of President Saleh, targeting military and government officials as well
as tribal leaders and U.S.-bound airliners. Al-Qaida of the Arabian
Peninsula has leveraged Yemen’s intensified tribal warfare, benefiting
from Yemen’s inherent instability and weak central government.
In Bahrain — home to
the U.S. 5th Fleet — the 22 month old uprising by Bahrain's 70 percent
Shiite majority, seeking to weaken the powers of the kingdom's Sunni
monarchy, is supported by Iran.
In Lebanon — which is
severely impacted by Hezbollah terrorism and the Syrian civil war — a
former prime minister, a former deputy prime minister, the current
deputy speaker of Parliament and the mufti of Tripoli are all out of the
country for "security" reasons.
The same goes for
several members of Parliament and a handful of former cabinet ministers.
Other prominent politicians are confined to their homes until further
notice, also due to concerns for their safety.
In Syria, more than
40,000 fatalities have been recorded in the war between the Iranian,
Iraqi and Russian-supported Assad regime and the Saudi Arabia and
Qatar-supported ethnic, religious and political opposition.
Unprecedented destruction of entire towns and suburbs, aerial bombings
of civilians, summary executions and deadly sniper fire have plagued the
country since March 2011.
The growing unrest in
Algeria, Jordan and Kuwait, the simmering environment in the Persian
Gulf and the actual fragmentation and fragmentation-in-process in Sudan,
Iraq, Yemen, Syria and Libya, suggest that more lava is expected to
erupt from the seismic Arab Street.
The dramatic alteration
of the Middle East reality — independent of the Palestinian issue and
Israel’s policy — requires an equally dramatic reassessment of U.S.
Middle East policy.
The dramatic
intensification of violence, unpredictability, instability, treachery
and unreliability on the Arab Street — which highlight the tenuous
nature of Middle East partners and agreements — requires a dramatic
reassessment of Israel’s security requirements.
The exacerbated
anti-U.S. sentiment on the Arab Street, the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq
and the expected cuts in the U.S. defense budget warrant enhancement of
the mutually-beneficial U.S.-Israel strategic cooperation.
Yoram Ettinger
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=3054
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
No comments:
Post a Comment