Saturday, November 30, 2024

Ceasefire collapsing? IAF aircraft strike deep in Lebanon - Israel National News

 

by Israel National News

Throughout Saturday, IDF operating against targets in Lebanon that threatened the State of Israel and violated the ceasefire agreement.

 

Over the course of Saturday, the IDF acted against activities in Lebanon that posed a threat to the State of Israel, violating the ceasefire understandings.

In one case, armed operatives were observed loading a vehicle with RPGs, boxes of ammunition, and other military equipment.

A short while later, the IAF struck the vehicle.

Hezbollah terrorists were also identified approaching Hezbollah structures in southern Lebanon. The IAF struck the terrorists.

IDF forces subsequently located weapons, including grenades and guns, on the terrorists.

In addition, a short while ago, terrorist activity in a Hezbollah facility with rocket launchers was identified in the area of Sidon in southern Lebanon.

The IAF struck the launchers.

During an additional incident, the IAF conducted an intelligence-based strike on a military vehicle operating in the area of a Hezbollah rocket manufacturing site.

"The IDF is deployed in the southern Lebanon area, operating against any threat to the State of Israel and enforcing any violation of the ceasefire agreement understandings," the IDF stressed.


Israel National News

Source: https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/399990

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IDF reveals military achievements of Operation Northern Arrows after Lebanon ceasefire - Amir Bohbot

 

by Amir Bohbot

Extensive air, naval, and ground campaigns dismantled Hezbollah’s capabilities over 14 months of fighting.

 

IDF operational activity in Lebanon (Illustrative.) (photo credit: Canva, IDF SPOKESPERSON'S UNIT)
IDF operational activity in Lebanon (Illustrative.)
(photo credit: Canva, IDF SPOKESPERSON'S UNIT)

The IDF released detailed data of Operation Northern Arrows against Hezbollah on Friday, following the ceasefire agreement with Lebanon, which took effect early Wednesday morning.

According to the data, at least 2,500 terrorists were killed. This number includes Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah and 14 senior members of the group’s leadership, including Fuad Shukr, the organization’s chief of staff. In addition, four division commanders, 24 brigade commanders, 27 battalion commanders, 63 company commanders, and 22 platoon commanders were killed during the campaign.

Ground operations were a key element in the campaign, with 14 brigade combat teams participating in over 100 special operations missions and 24 divisional raids. These operations, combined with the aerial and naval components, dealt a severe blow to Hezbollah’s Radwan Force and its operational infrastructure.

The IDF’s air and naval units played a central role in the campaign. Fighter jets logged approximately 14,000 flight hours, including 11,000 sorties (quick military strikes) targeting Hezbollah assets across Lebanon. Naval forces, meanwhile, conducted around 25,000 operational hours at sea to secure maritime zones and prevent arms smuggling.

More than 12,500 Hezbollah targets were struck during the operation, including 1,600 military headquarters and over 1,000 weapons storage facilities. The campaign also targeted infrastructure deep within Lebanon, with 360 sites struck in Beirut and approximately 1,000 sites neutralized in the Bekaa Valley, a known Hezbollah stronghold.

 Statistics of the IDF's operational activities in Lebanon over the past 14 months. (credit: IDF Spokesperson’s Unit)Enlrage image
Statistics of the IDF's operational activities in Lebanon over the past 14 months. (credit: IDF Spokesperson’s Unit)

Hezbollah’s firepower capabilities were also significantly reduced. The IDF estimates that the group now retains less than 30 percent of its pre-war fleet of drones.

The campaign also saw the confiscation of over 155,000 weapons and pieces of military equipment. This includes approximately 12,000 explosive devices, drones, and other explosive weapons, more than 13,000 anti-tank missile launchers and rockets, and anti-aircraft missiles. Over 121,000 communication devices, computers, electronic equipment, and documents were also confiscated.

Maintaining security on the northern border

Brig.-Gen. Yiftach Norkin, Commander of Division 146, praised the operation’s accomplishments, emphasizing that the IDF remains deployed along the northern border to maintain security and preserve the hard-won achievements of recent months.

“Over the past year, you have pushed Hezbollah back and cleared the areas from which the group directly threatened the residents of the north,” he said, addressing soldiers and reservists. “Your achievements are inspiring and have created a stable foundation for decisions aimed at security. We are determined to uphold the agreement and enforce any violations.”


Amir Bohbot

Source: https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-831293

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IDF's Home Front Command loosens guidelines in North following ceasefire with Hezbollah - Jerusalem Post Staff

 

by Jerusalem Post Staff

A partial return to normalacy

 

The IDF's Home Front Command has loosened guidelines for civilians in the North on Saturday following the implementation of the ceasefire with Lebanon on Wednesday.

Following an assessment with IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, the activity in the north will transition from limited to partial activity, whereas in the rest of the country, full activities are allowed except for gatherings of up to 2,000 people.


Jerusalem Post Staff

Source: https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-831387

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Hamas may drop key demands in push for Gaza ceasefire - Shir Perets

 

by Shir Perets

Following Sinwar's elimination and the new Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, Hamas officials signal readiness for hostage negotiations.

 

Palestinian fighters from the armed wing of Hamas take part in a military parade to mark the anniversary of the 2014 war with Israel, near the border in the central Gaza Strip, July 19, 2023. (photo credit: REUTERS/IBRAHEEM ABU MUSTAFA)
Palestinian fighters from the armed wing of Hamas take part in a military parade to mark the anniversary of the 2014 war with Israel, near the border in the central Gaza Strip, July 19, 2023.
(photo credit: REUTERS/IBRAHEEM ABU MUSTAFA)

Some leaders in Hamas are considering a Gaza hostage-ceasefire deal, in which the IDF would remain temporarily in the Philadelphi Corridor in the Gaza Strip, the New York Times reported on Thursday. 

According to the Times, Palestinian and US officials believed that Hamas’ political leadership was ready to make a deal after the elimination of Yahya Sinwar last month.

Because of this belief that Sinwar was the primary obstacle to a deal, the Hostage Families Forum released a statement Thursday evening calling on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, saying, “The time is ripe for a deal. A one-shot deal to return all the hostages home.”

The Times noted that Iran also seems keen on avoiding another direct round with Israel, particularly after its air defense systems were significantly damaged in the Israeli strike in October and given the more recent victory of President-elect Donald Trump.

After over a year of war, Hamas reportedly no longer has total control over Gaza, with more and more Gazans turning on the group, blaming them for provoking Israel with the October 7 massacre.

 Soldiers from the Kfir Brigade operate in Beit Layiha in the Gaza Strip, November 20, 2024. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON'S UNIT)Enlrage image
Soldiers from the Kfir Brigade operate in Beit Layiha in the Gaza Strip, November 20, 2024. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON'S UNIT)

Hamas wants to end 'aggresion' on Gaza

Shortly after the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire went into effect on Wednesday morning, Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri told Reuters the group "appreciates" Lebanon's right to reach an agreement that protects its people, and it hopes for a deal to end the war in Gaza.

"Hamas appreciates the right of Lebanon and Hezbollah to reach an agreement that protects the people of Lebanon, and we hope that this agreement will pave the way to reaching an agreement that ends the war of genocide against our people in Gaza," Abu Zuhri told Reuters.

While some anonymous American officials told the Times that Hamas might drop its demands and move forward on a ceasefire agreement acceptable to Israel’s government, Israel did not appear to be interested in concessions.

"We are committed to cooperating with any effort to reach a ceasefire in Gaza, and we are interested in ending the aggression against our people," Hamas said to Reuters.

“We have informed mediators in Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey that Hamas is ready for a ceasefire agreement and a serious deal to exchange prisoners,” an additional Hamas official told AFP.

According to the Times’ sources, the current main point of contention revolves around the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza and what role Hamas will play in the Strip.

“There will ultimately need to be elections,”  Salah al-Din al-Awawdeh, a member of Hamas, told the Times.

“There are different factions and balances of power. All this makes it hard to predict.”

President-elect Trump

Additionally, the Times noted that Netanyahu may be waiting for Trump to take office before shifting his position on talks with Hamas.

Although Trump has pushed for Israel to “finish up” the war in Gaza, experts believe he is unlikely to apply pressure by threatening to withhold military aid.

 
Shir Perets

Source: https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-831179

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Netanyahu: 'Conditions to bring hostages home have improved' - Israel National News

 

by Israel National News

Prime Minister stated that the threat on the northern border has been removed and the residents of northern Israel will return 'when they feel it correct.'

 

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu                                                       Itai Bar-On/GPO

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu estimated on Thursday that the residents of northern Israel would be able to return to their homes once they understand that the calm on the border is stable and the ceasefire deal is enforced.

"The threat in the north has been removed. We will work to convince not just our enemies, but also our residents. They will return gradually when they feel it correct," Netanyahu said in an interview with Channel 14.

He noted that since Yahya Sinwar's elimination and the disconnection between the Gazan and Lebanese fronts, the conditions for a hostage deal have changed. "I think the conditions have changed for the better, not just because of the disconnection between the fronts, but also because of Sinwar's elimination."

"Hamas hoped that Iran would come to rescue it; that didn't happen. It hoped the Houthis would come to rescue it; that didn't happen. But above all, it hoped that Hezbollah would come to rescue it, and indeed Nasrallah said already on the second day, when he attacked, that 'we would continue until Israel stops its attacks on Hamas.'"


Israel National News

Source: https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/399941

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JISS senior research fellow says attacks in Aleppo 'ostensibly good news for Israel' - Jerusalem Post Staff

 

by Jerusalem Post Staff

Rakov is known in the JISS for being an expert on Russian policy in the Middle East and is also a reservist Lt. Colonel in the IDF.

 

Rebels led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham drive along a street in al-Rashideen, Aleppo province, Syria November 29, 2024. (photo credit: REUTERS/Mahmoud Hasano)
Rebels led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham drive along a street in al-Rashideen, Aleppo province, Syria November 29, 2024.
(photo credit: REUTERS/Mahmoud Hasano)

The Islamist attack on Aleppo is "ostensibly good news for Israel," Daniel Rakov, a senior research fellow for the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS), said in a post to X/Twitter on Saturday.

Rakov is known in JISS for being an expert on Russian policy in the Middle East and is also a reserve Lt. Colonel in the IDF. In his post on X, he said, "The fall of northern Syria to the rebels damages the infrastructure of the Iranians and Hezbollah there and will make it difficult for them to work to restore Hezbollah."

"Assad will be more defensive, and as he fights for the survival of his regime, ostensibly helping Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon are of secondary interest," implying that Israeli freedom of action in Syria will likely expand.

He also said that the attacks were "very embarrassing for Moscow, the Russians were surprised by the rapid advance of the rebels from Idlib, and that the few military sources Russia has in the country will also "serve its best interests, as opposed to assisting Iran and Hezbollah." 

He added that Russian forces in Syria "have tried to make moves that they are used to making - attacking from the air, applying diplomatic pressure on the Turks to restrain the rebels, and spreading information that minimizes the incident and exaggerates Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's ability to deal with it."

 Syrian opposition fighters stand in front of University of Aleppo, after rebels opposed to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad said they had reached the heart of Aleppo, Syria November 30, 2024.  (credit: REUTERS/Mahmoud Hasano)Enlrage image
Syrian opposition fighters stand in front of University of Aleppo, after rebels opposed to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad said they had reached the heart of Aleppo, Syria November 30, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/Mahmoud Hasano)

Rakov also claims that Russia is not addressing recent reports that Assad met with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Moscow to ask him for help, and then cites another report saying that glide bombs have been transferred to the Russian-operated Khmeimim Air Base in Syria.

The Israeli researcher also stated that Russian state media is largely ignoring the conflict in Aleppo, while claiming that Russian commentators on global conflicts said that Moscow is not responsible for the defense failure of the Syrian city, saying that Russia had very few forces there and the incident was a huge failure for the Assad regime.

Rakov notes that Russian commentators have said that Turkey is not responsible for Aleppo's security failure and that the security arrangements in northern Syria were based on agreements between Russia and Turkey but that the latter country had been distancing itself from the former.

Additionally, Ukraine, while fighting against Russia and its invasion of the country, reportedly sent aid to Syrian rebels in recent months, but that it was difficult to determine how significant that aid was, Rakov noted.

An opportunity for Israel to strike Syria?

Rakov then entertains the idea of Israel having the opportunity to attack Syria due to the weakness demonstrated by the Assad regime. He also says that the regime could be prone to attacks by Kurdish forces, rebels in southern Syria, or ISIS, due to what he claims is Syria's newfound vulnerability, with all this being terrible timing for Russia as they have their sets sighted on Ukraine, Rakov argues.

"Assad's loss of Aleppo damages Russia's image as a power capable of projecting influence outside the post-Soviet space and threatens an important strategic asset of Putin's, which the bases in Syria," he wrote. "This also reflects negatively on Russia's image in the region.

The Russians, as we can learn from the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk, are in no hurry to get hysterical, but the speed with which Aleppo fell will require them to respond quickly," he continued.

The JISS researcher concluded his post by saying that the unstable situation in Syria may cause Assad and the Russians to open the gates more strongly for the entry of Iranian military forces but that the collapse of the Assad regime may create a scenario for the growth of significant military threats against Israel.


Jerusalem Post Staff

Source: https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-831388

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Mexico, Canada cozy up to Trump amid trade war threats while China goes it alone - Ben Whedon

 

by Ben Whedon

Canada Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called Trump immediately after his tariff-increase promise, then flew Friday night to Florida to talk with him.

 

Claudia Sheinbaum
Newly elected President of Mexico Claudia Sheinbaum.
Getty Images

The United States' neighbors seem eager to avoid a major trade-and-tariff standoff with Washington as Donald Trump returns to the White House, but Beijing is readying for round two after trading blows with the Republican president during his first administration. 

Though Trump has long expressed support for tariffs, he set off an international firestorm this week with his Day One plans to shake up trade relations with key economic partners.

"On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States, and its ridiculous Open Borders," Trump announced this week.

Trump overthrew Republican free trade orthodoxy during the 2016 primary, criticizing foreign trade practices for which he blamed the outsourcing of American jobs. 

His first administration witnessed the renegotiation of key trade deals with neighboring nations, notably the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) that replaced the old North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

He also attempted trade negotiations with China and imposed tariffs on several major industries, though his efforts did not result in the same sort of landmark trade agreement as with Mexico and Canada.

On the 2024 campaign trail, Trump made tariffs a central fixture of his economic pitch, vowing to win back American jobs and bolster domestic production through taxes on foreign imports. He also promised to use them as leverage to secure cooperation from other nations on key issues like immigration. Here’s a look at how America’s trade partners are responding to his plans.

Mexico

While there appears to be some disagreement between Trump and his Mexican counterpart over the state of their negotiations, both have deemed their recent talks as productive and indicated that they were prepared to work closely with one another.

Despite Trump’s support for strict immigration and tariff policies during his first term, he generally enjoyed a strong relationship with former Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. 

Current Mexican leader Claudia Sheinbaum, however, initially expressed skepticism about Trump’s tariffs plans and suggested they would lead to a direct trade war.

“One tariff would be followed by another in response, and so on until we put at risk common businesses,” she said earlier this week. But the pair spoke privately within days and both suggested there was room for discussion.

Trump posted Thursday on Truth Social: “Just had a wonderful conversation with the new President of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo. She has agreed to stop Migration through Mexico, and into the United States, effectively closing our Southern Border. We also talked about what can be done to stop the massive drug inflow into the United States, and also, U.S. consumption of these drugs. It was a very productive conversation!”

Sheinbaum disputed that she had made any material commitments but that the pair had discussed immigration and drug trafficking and that tariffs had come up in that context.

"It was a good conversation and we are going to keep having conversations,” she said. "Mexico's stance is not to close borders, but to build bridges between governments and their peoples.”

Canada

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Friday night unexpectedly flew to Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort home in Florida to talk with him, amid the tariff threat.

On Tuesday, Trudeau quickly called Trump after the tariff post to discuss his plans. 

Trudeau’s government has faced abysmal polling numbers amid widespread economic discontent and frustration over his immigration policies. Some surveys have suggested his Liberal Party faces an electoral wipeout when voters go to the polls and a trade war with the United States could see its prospects fade even further.

"We obviously talked about laying out the facts, talking about how the intense and effective connections between our two countries flow back and forth," Trudeau said Tuesday.

Though not typically viewed as a major factor in the United States’ immigration surge, Canada shares with America the largest undefended border in the world. Ottawa’s own lax immigration policies have contributed, moreover, not just to Trudeau’s low polling numbers, but the security situation for the U.S.

During fiscal 2024, U.S. Customs and Border Protection reported a record 198,929 encounters with and apprehensions of illegal border crossers along the Canadian frontier. Among those apprehended were individuals from 97 different countries.

Though border security is a significant factor in Washington’s relationship with Ottawa, Canada’s economy is not without some industrial weight of its own and Trump’s primary concern with tariffs seems to be foreign imports.

Earlier this year, Trudeau embraced tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle imports, as well as steel and other goods. His move followed the U.S. imposing a similar tariff and could signal a willingness from Canada to cooperate with Trump on his oriental efforts.

China

While Canada and Mexico appear at least willing to engage with Trump on his trade and border initiatives, China, the main object of Trump’s ire, is evidently adopting a more bellicose approach to the Republican’s return.

"Imposing arbitrary tariffs on trading partners will not solve America's own problems,” Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesperson He Yadong told reporters.

China is already subject to some import tariffs, as Trump’s trade policy pivot carried over to the Biden administration to a degree. In announcing the tariffs this week, Trump further singled out Beijing for additional scrutiny if it did not crack down on the export of fentanyl and other drugs.

“Until such time as they stop, we will be charging China an additional 10% Tariff, above any additional Tariffs, on all of their many products coming into the United States of America,” Trump declared, observing that his move followed failed discussions with China to convince them to crack down.

Chinese state-linked media has roundly criticized Trump’s tariff plans, with some suggesting they would backfire and hurt U.S. companies that do business with China.

"U.S. politicians need to pay attention to and respect the evident willingness of American businesses for economic and trade cooperation by tailoring suitable policy environments for enterprises," wrote the state-controlled Global Times.

China has become an industrial superpower in recent decades, drawing in American companies across all industries, in part due to lower operating and labor costs.

Trump’s first tariff efforts against China saw Washington scrutinize Chinese state-linked firms such as TikTok operator ByteDance, which he attempted to ban.

Hawkish attitudes toward Chinese firms gradually permeated throughout Capitol Hill and Congress ultimately approved a so-called “TikTok ban” that faces legal challenges. The fate of the popular social media app is likely to prove one of the first flashpoints in a renewed trade war.


Ben Whedon

Source: https://justthenews.com/nation/economy/wkdmexico-canada-cozy-trump-amid-trade-war-threats-while-china-goes-it-alone

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Surge in antisemitism must be a global wake-up call - JPost Editorial

 

by JPost Editorial

One example of a country taking swift action is The Netherlands.

 

Demonstrators hold Palestinian and Israeli flags as they gather in front of the National Holocaust Museum on the day of its opening, in Amsterdam, Netherlands, March 10, 2024. (photo credit: REUTERS/PIROSCHKA VAN DE WOUW)
Demonstrators hold Palestinian and Israeli flags as they gather in front of the National Holocaust Museum on the day of its opening, in Amsterdam, Netherlands, March 10, 2024.
(photo credit: REUTERS/PIROSCHKA VAN DE WOUW)

After an Iranian plot to assassinate Canadian human rights activist Irwin Cotler was revealed in late October, he called it “a wake-up call for the community of democracies.” Since then, antisemitic and anti-Israel assaults and threats have escalated further around the world, from the murder of Chabad emissary Rabbi Zvi Kogan z”l in the United Arab Emirates on November 21 to incendiary leaflets in London this week.

GB News reported on Wednesday that leaflets reading “Zionists, leave Britain or be slaughtered” were distributed in Hendon, a neighborhood with a large Jewish population. “We are witnessing a troubling trend of redlines being repeatedly crossed,” said Isaac Zarfati, executive director of StandWithUs UK. “This is not just another wave that will pass if we remain passive.”

What can be done to counter this hateful phenomenon? One example of a country taking swift action is The Netherlands. Following the antisemitic attacks on Israeli soccer fans in Amsterdam on November 8, the Dutch government unveiled a five-year national strategy for combating antisemitism in pursuit of what it called “Netherlands without antisemitism.”

According to a cabinet statement, the Dutch Jewish community, numbering some 50,000, “lives in great insecurity.” The cabinet earmarked 4.5 million euros ($4.7 million) annually for the plan to be coordinated by the Justice and Security Ministry, advised by the National Coordinator for Combating Antisemitism, focusing on stepping up security at Jewish sites.

The new strategy calls for the establishment of an antisemitism task force, tougher laws on “glorifying terrorism,” and a probe into violence during protests in the streets and in soccer stadiums, where fans will be targeted in a bid to eradicate antisemitic chanting.

 Dutch police patrol after riots in Amsterdam, Netherlands, November 11, 2024. (credit: Mizzle Media/Handout via REUTERS)Enlrage image
Dutch police patrol after riots in Amsterdam, Netherlands, November 11, 2024. (credit: Mizzle Media/Handout via REUTERS)

“With the current strategy, the government makes it clear that the fight against antisemitism concerns all Dutch people,” the cabinet said. “We all have a responsibility, as a society, to combat antisemitism and the insecurity of Jews. The Netherlands stands for an open, reasonable, and tolerant society. Jewish life is a very explicit part of that.”

Asked for his view of the situation, French philosopher and writer Bernard-Henri Lévy, who authored a new book titled Israel Alone, told The Jerusalem Post

“The situation is clearly not good. Look at the Amsterdam pogrom—the hostile protests before the France-Israel soccer match at the Stade de France. There have been countless authoritarian, even totalitarian, countries or nations involved in terrible wars that have played at the Stade de France without any issue. Yet now it’s Israel’s turn, a true democracy, attacked on seven fronts and targeted in its very existence – and there’s a widespread boycott! Isn’t that strange? Doesn’t that trouble you?”

In a recent op-ed in Post, Fleur Hassan-Nahoum and Lahav Harkov suggested that Israel take the leading role in combating global antisemitism. “While the State of Israel cannot eradicate the world’s oldest hatred, it must take effective action to mitigate it,” they wrote, arguing that Israel “must provide support to Jewish communities confronting antisemitism.”

They proposed that the government form an inter-ministerial committee for Israel-Diaspora relations to coordinate the international battle against antisemitism.

For his part, Cotler, who was appointed Canada’s first antisemitism envoy and is also the founder and international chair of the Raoul Wallenberg Centre for Human Rights, outlined his position clearly in the Annual Antisemitism Worldwide Report published by Tel Aviv University and the Anti-Defamation League. 

“The explosion of antisemitism is a threat not only to Jews but is toxic to our democracies, an assault on our common humanity, and a standing threat to human security – in a word, the bloodied canary in the mineshaft of global evil,” Cotler wrote. “Jews alone cannot combat it, let alone defeat it. What is required is a constituency of conscience – a whole-of-government, whole-of-society commitment and action to combat this oldest and most lethal of hatreds.”

Cotler’s daughter, Michal Cotler-Wunsh, appointed Israel’s special envoy for combating antisemitism just a few weeks before October 7, 2023, said this is a time for everyone who cares to stand up and speak out. “To me, this tsunami of antisemitism is a call to action and responsibility, and not just for Jews, but for anyone who understands the importance of this existential moment in time.”

 
JPost Editorial

Source: https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-831229

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Tocqueville and America’s Spending Problem - Stephen Soukup

 

by Stephen Soukup

Entitlement reform is the unavoidable challenge of our time—ignoring it risks economic upheaval, while addressing it demands resolve and compromise.

 

 

In the aftermath of Donald Trump’s reelection as president, conservatives have spent a great deal of time and have spilled a great deal of digital ink discussing the need to cut government spending and the most effective means for doing so. A big part of the problem that reformers face is that the vast majority of American spending is largely untouchable, which is to say that it can’t—or at least won’t—be cut. Some of this is defense spending. Some of it is the increasingly punitive interest on the national debt. The biggest part of the nation’s spending problem, however, is “entitlements”—Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid—programs that collectively constitute the “third rail” of government spending.

The simple and inarguable truth of the matter is that the country needs entitlement reform. Third rail or not, it must address the massive budget gaps created by these programs or face serious economic and financial consequences. The good news here is that we have a reasonably good idea of how that reform should be done. The government should harness the power of markets to bolster annual returns on investment of Social Security funds. It should raise the retirement/qualification age for Social Security and Medicare. And it should means test for those same two, ensuring that it is not providing old-age welfare to those who are financially able to live without it.

The bad news is that all these reforms will be met with aggressive and bipartisan resistance. The problem with creating an “entitlement” is that people henceforth feel “entitled” to it. One assumes that this was considered a feature, not a bug, by the great minds who gave us the New Deal and the Great Society. In any case, more sensible and well-read men and women might have foreseen that such a scheme would, in time, cripple the nation.

Alexis de Tocqueville is considered one of the greatest and most perceptive observers of the grand experiment launched by the American Founders in 1776. Before he made a name as the chronicler of “Democracy in America,” however, Tocqueville made a trip to England to examine the operation of democracy there. In 1833—two years before the publication of the first volume of his American magnum opus—Tocqueville traveled to England to study the impact of the previous year’s Reform Act. Specifically, he was interested in the effect on the nation of vastly expanded suffrage, which had been the centerpiece of that law.

In England, he found a people and a nation in the throes of social unrest, unrest that would spread to grip all of Europe within a decade. While the consensus attributed much of that unrest to the newly expanded suffrage, through discussions with various political figures and observers, Tocqueville settled on a different culprit, the nation’s “poor laws.”

Starting in the early 1530s, King Henry VIII and his advisers began the formal separation of the Church of England from Rome and the consolidation of political and religious authority under the English crown. In time, this process necessitated the closing or destruction of Catholic monasteries and religious orders, which had been the source of most private charity in the country, most of the services provided to the poor and indigent to help them cope with the difficulties of late-medieval life. In response, various forms of public charity were instituted (or enhanced) on an informal basis, as needed, throughout the remainder of the century. In 1597 and 1601, Queen Elizabeth I formalized these laws with the Poor Relief Acts, thereby creating the first official welfare state in the world.

Two hundred years later, most of England’s political and economic elites agreed that the poor laws needed to be reformed, although there was little consensus about how best to do so. What had started as an act of decency and the recognition that large institutions can play a significant role in ameliorating temporal human suffering had become a social and economic mess, paradoxically pitting the poor against the very rich, whose wealth and resources were consumed to aid them in their need.

Against this backdrop, Tocqueville examined England’s Poor Laws, studying their impacts on the poor, the rich, and the whole of society. In his often overlooked classic, Memoir on Pauperism, he drew several conclusions that have proven exceptionally shrewd and even prophetic. While governments continue to ignore or deny Tocqueville’s observations, the veracity of his deductions remains largely unassailable.

To be clear, Tocqueville noted that some concession from the rich to the poor through the state—which he termed “public charity”—was unavoidable. Even in 19th-century England, it was clear that private charity was inadequate to address all the addressable needs of society. Public charity would always be perilous and less than ideal, but it inarguably had a role in the modern state.

Additionally, Tocqueville noted that the spirit in which public charity was conceived and employed was quite noble and generous. “At first glance,” he wrote, “there is no idea that seems more beautiful and grander than that of public charity.” It appeared, at least superficially, that public charity could provide the best of all possible worlds, satisfying society’s most desperate concerns in a fair and honorable way: “At the same time that it assures the rich the enjoyment of their wealth, society guarantees the poor against the excessive misery. It asks some to give of their surplus in order to allow others basic necessities. This is certainly a moving and elevating sight….”

As is often the case, however, reality turned out to be much different than the theory. Because the giving and the receiving are made compulsory, the beauty and grandeur are fleeting. Tocqueville wrote that private charity—the willing act of man providing for his fellow man, sharing voluntarily from his wealth to enable and empower his less fortunate neighbor—“establishes valuable ties between the rich and the poor,” a “deed [that] itself involves the giver in the fate of the one whose poverty he has chosen to alleviate.” Moreover, Tocqueville noted, “the latter . . . feels inspired by gratitude.”

Compulsory “giving,” by contrast, severs those bonds and serves only to “inflame society’s sores”:

The law strips the man of wealth of a part of his surplus without consulting him, and he sees the poor man only as a greedy stranger invited by the legislator to share his wealth. The poor man, on the other hand, feels no gratitude for a benefit that no one can refuse him and that could not satisfy him in any case . . . . Far from uniting these two rival nations, who have existed since the beginning of the world and who are called the rich and the poor, into a single people, it breaks the only link which could be established between them. It ranges each one under a banner, tallies them, and, bringing them face to face, prepares them for combat.

In essence, then, the conclusion Tocqueville draws from the English Poor Laws is that compulsory, institutionalized altruism, while seeming noble and representing a real human desire for benevolence, actually causes significant harm. It wrecks the spirit of gratitude in those benefitting from the “altruism.” It fosters bitterness and resentment among those whose property is used to enable compulsory charity. And, perhaps most importantly, it damages the entire, previously functional system, rendering it quarrelsome and, over time, unworkable. The taking or diminishing of one’s property for the purpose of redistribution to other entities can’t help but create enmity and frustration on the one hand and ingratitude and entitlement on the other, all while destroying continuity and unleashing systemic destruction.

How the United States should address these issues now, nearly a full century after creating its entitlement programs and its parallel “entitlement” problem, is debatable. What is not, though, is that it must do so. For decades our best and brightest political and financial minds have pondered the most effective ways to reform entitlements, without giving much thought to making those reforms palatable to a people whose social bonds have been warped and reset by “public charity.”

If we, as a people, do not find a way to deal with the issues about which Tocqueville tried to warn us, we will suffer a prolonged period of economic and financial upheaval. Clearly, the best time to have considered these matters would have been in 1935, when Congress passed (and FDR signed) the Social Security Act. The second-best time is now.

We may not get another chance.

 
Stephen Soukup

Source: https://amgreatness.com/2024/11/30/tocqueville-and-americas-spending-problem/

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Kimberly Gardner was prototype for Soros prosecutors, then ethics and illegality crashed her career - John Solomon

 

by John Solomon

Former St. Louis prosecutor admits misappropriating funds in failed prosecution of GOP governor that boomeranged against her.

 

KimGardner
George Soros-backed prosecutor Kimberly Gardner faces disciplinary hearing over dismissed case against ex-Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens
Getty Images

When she was elected chief prosecutor in St. Louis in 2016 with the backing of far-left megadonor George Soros, Kimberly Gardner was the prototype for a new era of progressive lawfare: unabashedly liberal, the first black female to hold the job and eager to make her mark with headline-grabbing cases. 

Soon, she went big-game hunting by indicting Missouri’s new Republican governor, a Navy SEAL and rising political star named Eric Greitens, by claiming he tried to blackmail his female hairdresser lover.

There was just one problem: Gardner, a Democrat, never had the evidence to back up her charges in 2018. She managed to force Greitens to resign in disgrace before a court called her bluff and she was forced to dismiss the charges.

62 acts of misconduct

As a result, Gardner’s world began unraveling. She was sued by Just the News to provide evidence in the Greitens case and penalized for failing to comply when a judge concluded she “recklessly impeded the judicial process.”

Missouri's chief legal disciplinary officer accused Gardner of sweeping misconduct in the failed Greitens prosecution, concluding she engaged in 62 acts of misconduct that resulted in 79 false representations during the case.

Her top investigator in the case, a former FBI agent named William Tisaby, would eventually plead guilty to a misdemeanor charge of evidence tampering in the case.

Even the basic job of keeping her city safe began to unravel.

A judge freed an accused murderer in St. Louis when prosecutors from Gardner's office repeatedly missed court proceedings, rebuking her office because it “essentially abandoned its duty to prosecute those it charges with crimes.” 

A young star athlete lost her legs last year when hit by a vehicle driven by a speeding motorist out on bond by Gardner’s office in a pending robbery case, despite having violated the conditions of his release many times, creating outrage.

"A rudderless ship of chaos"

Some of Gardner’s staff began resigning, and judges began to pursue contempt charges against her office for failing to stay on top of basic criminal cases. 

“The Circuit Attorney’s Office appears to be a rudderless ship of chaos,” one judge declared in 2022.

Missouri’s Supreme Court also weighed in with a devastating blow, issuing a public reprimand for Gardner’s conduct in the Greitens case, concluding she violated the ethics requirements of her office. By spring 2023 she was so embattled she resigned from office.

But even resignation didn’t end the extraordinary boomerang from her conduct in the Greitens case. 

A few weeks ago, Gardner admitted in a signed federal court document that she misused public funds to repay herself about $5,000 for penalties she was ordered to pay for her missteps in the Greitens case.

Federal prosecutors said in the document she signed that they had enough evidence to charge her with a federal crime for misuse of public funds.

Rather than face conviction, she reached a pretrial diversion deal that will spare her federal criminal prosecution if she repays the monies and stays out of trouble for 18 months.

Federal prosecutors found that Gardner directed her employees to issue a series of checks totaling $5,004.33 from the Contingent Fund Account in the St. Louis Circuit Attorney’s Office to reimburse her for paying the fees and costs assessed against her personally by the Missouri Supreme Court, according to the diversion agreement she signed.

You can read the full agreement here.

Under Missouri law, the Contingent Fund was to be used only to pay such expenses for the “proper and vigorous prosecution of the duties of the Circuit Attorney’s Office,” prosecutors alleged. “The diverted funds were deposited in her personal bank account and used for her personal expenses unrelated to her job duties and the operations of the Circuit Attorney’s Office.”

She was investigated by the FBI and will be under the supervision of a pre-trial office until early 2026.

“The agreement follows a thorough investigation by the U.S. Attorney’s Office and the FBI, during which investigators interviewed all pertinent witnesses and reviewed all available evidence and financial records,” U.S. Attorney Sayler A. Fleming said in announcing the case. “This is a just and fair outcome for a case involving a former official and the misuse of public funds that just met the minimum required under the pertinent federal criminal statute.”

Gardner’s attorney issued a statement saying his client entered into the pretrial diversion program to save the city she once served any more heartache.

“The parties agreed to resolve the matter prior to any criminal action commencing and to spare the district the time and costs associated with defending any claim of criminal wrongdoing,” attorney Ronald S. Sullivan Jr. said.

Greitens said Gardner’s fall from grace and his exoneration were the classic outcomes of a weaponized legal system, when he hopes will come to an end now that Donald Trump has won a new term in the White House he hopes will come to an end now that Donald Trump has won a new term in the White House.

“I’m grateful to have been exonerated, and I’m thankful for the country that the truth about Soros-funded prosecutors is now out,” he told Just the News.  “America can now leave lawfare behind and return to the rule of law.”

Soros' prosecutors failing nationwide

Gardner’s fall from power matches that of several other Soros-backed prosecutors in major cities. Several have been recalled or defeated at the ballot box by voters frustrated by a surge of crime they oversaw, including most recently Los Angeles District Attorney George Gascon.

But Gardner’s flameout was among the most spectacular: She not only lost the trust of her constituents, she was found to have engaged in wrongdoing at multiple levels of the legal system. The failures even led Missouri GOP Attorney General Andrew Bailey to issue a lessons learned report known as the “Kim Gardner Report.”

You can read that report here.

That report summed up the failures of one of Soros’ first local prosecutors with unvarnished language.

“Ms. Gardner created a toxic office environment, and by the time she resigned from office, only a small number of people remained to conduct the work of the office,” the report reads. “Leading up to her departure, workloads had become untenable, attorneys were suffering from extreme stress and resultant medical issues, and cases were not being prosecuted.

“Ms. Gardner’s repeated failures to abide by her oath of office had severely undermined the criminal justice system, ruining countless lives."


John Solomon

Source: https://justthenews.com/accountability/political-ethics/kimberly-gardner-was-prototype-soros-prosecutors-then-ethics-and

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Nir Barkat: Incentives for haredim who enlist, sanctions on those who refuse - Israel National News

 

by Israel National News

Likud minister says October 7 proved there is no avoiding the conscription of haredi men to the IDF, but it must be done with sensitivity and avoid causing fear of 'secularization.'

 

Nir Barkat
Nir Barkat                                                                                        Yonatan Sindel/Flash90

Minister Nir Barkat (Likud) stated that there is no avoiding a more significant conscription of haredi men into the IDF, but called for it to be done with the appropriate sensitivity.

"The concept of a 'small and smart army' that existed until October 6th has failed, the Haredi public understands that it needs to enlist," Barkat said in an interview with Galei Tzahal (IDF Radio).

He emphasized, "We need to understand how to do this without causing fear of secularization - we need to bring incentives for those who agree and sanctions against those who refuse."

Addressing the ceasefire reached this week with the Hezbollah terrorist organization in Lebanon, Barkat said that one of the main achievements of the ceasefire is the creation of a separation between the southern and northern arenas. "Isolating the north from the south is significant. Now we need to focus on Iran - we need to go after them."


Israel National News

Source: https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/399961

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U.S. citizen sentenced for spying for Beijing highlights reach of China’s security service - Steven Richards

 

by Steven Richards

China has emerged as the most prolific intelligence threat to U.S. having engaged in corporate espionage, intellectual-property theft, and personnel information breaches going back decades.

 

Stock photo of cyber hacker with China flag
Stock photo of cyber hacker with China flag
Getty Images

A naturalized U.S. citizen who immigrated from China has been sentenced to four years in prison after conspiring to act as a agent of the Chinese government, highlighting the broad reach of Beijing’s security service and strategy of co-opting immigrants for intelligence gathering, according to the Justice Department. 

The plea agreement and court filings announced Monday show China’s Ministry of State Security – the Communist-run country's intelligence service – used operative Peng Li as a “cooperative contact” in the decades since he moved to the United States while he worked for a major U.S. telecommunications company and an international information technology company, the agency says. 

In recent years, China has emerged as the most prolific intelligence threat to the United States. The country has engaged in corporate espionage, intellectual property theft, and personnel information breaches going back decades. 

The MSS is also noted for recruiting Chinese nationals residing abroad as assets to gather information, keep tabs on dissidents and influence expatriate communities. 

Peng Li, who lived in Florida, reportedly worked for decades at U.S.-based Verizon and subsequently for the Indian company InfoSys, exemplifies the MSS’s strategy of co-opting Chinese residing abroad for intelligence work. 

In his role at the companies, Li, under the direction of MSS officers, obtained information that was of interest to the Chinese government. This included information about Chinese dissidents, members of the minority religious movement known as the Falun Gong, and U.S.-based non-governmental organizations, according to the DOJ. 

His contact in the security service was a former schoolmate with whom he attended high school and college. Li remained friends with the officer after he moved to the United States decades ago, according to the Tampa Bay Times

Li also discussed sensitive cybersecurity and hacking with an MSS during his several trips back to China. 

Recently, the U.S. government discovered that a Chinese hacking group named Salt Typhoon orchestrated a wide-ranging breach of American telecommunications networks that reportedly permits Beijing to listen in on telephone calls and read text messages.

Though much of the information Li provided to the MSS was publicly available, Assistant U.S. Attorney Daniel Marcet says it is impossible to assess the harm to American national security. Some of the information Li forwarded to his contact was related to cybersecurity matters. 

“For more than 10 years, the defendant knowingly and willfully collaborated with a hostile foreign intelligence agency dedicated to undermining the United States’ national security,” the prosecutors wrote. “China’s intelligence activities are widely considered to be among the greatest long-term threats to the United States’ national security, intellectual property and economic vitality.”

In court, Li said that he did not understand what he had done was against U.S. law at the time. 

“Looking back now, I realize how stupid and ignorant I was,” he said. 

But Li is just one of many private citizens working to assist China’s vast espionage effort against its chief rival, the United States, the prosecutors in the case said. 

“The Chinese government doesn’t just have one Mr. Li,” Marcet said, likening Beijing’s long-term strategy against the United States to “death by a thousand cuts.”

An analysis on Chinese espionage since 2000 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) found Beijing frequently employed private citizens or non-Chinese actors to achieve intelligence collection in addition to hacking. 

For the espionage cases in which the organization could identify both the actor and intent, CSIS found that 41% of espionage cases included private Chinese citizens. Another 10% were “non-Chinese actors (usually U.S. persons recruited by Chinese officials).” 

Together, the cases made up just more than half of all espionage recorded espionage incidents, followed closely by cyber espionage, which was involved in 46% of cases. 

In October, the Justice Department charged five University of Michigan students from China after the National Guard discovered them in close proximity to a base hosting exercises. At the time they were let go and claimed to be members of the media. 

However, the DOJ later found the Chinese nationals had planned the trip 200 miles from where they studied at the university to take photos of military vehicles at Camp Grayling. They were charged last month over their alleged attempts to cover up their real reason for traveling so close to the military base. Warrants were issued for their arrest, though the individuals’ whereabouts are unknown, Just the News previously reported. 

Like the Florida case, the Michigan episode, one local expert said at the time, highlighted the United States’ continued vulnerabilities to Chinese Communist Party espionage. 

“This is the third significant case of Chinese nationals charged with espionage by the FBI in the State of Michigan in recent years,” former Ambassador and current Director of the Michigan-China Economic and Security Review Initiative Joseph Cella said in a statement posted to the group’s X account. 

“It shows the massive gaps in our national security and the urgent need for, on a whole of society and whole of government, including the states, to be on the proper footing commensurate to counter these espionage threats,” he continued. 

Cella’s group has long warned of national security threats in the vicinity of Camp Grayling where the China-linked company, Gotion, plans to build an electric vehicle battery plant. 

Their plans have spurred resistance from the local community and its dealings with the local Green Charter Township board are marred by accusations of bribery and conflicts of interest. 

Cella says the charges against these Chinese nationals related to apparent attempts to spy on Camp Grayling vindicates the widespread concerns about Gotion’s proposed plant, which security experts previously testified would almost certainly be used as a launch pad for espionage. 

In a similar case in 2020, two students were arrested in Key West, Florida, after driving on to the Sigsbee Annex Naval Air Station and photographing the property, including military structures.

A recent House Committee on Homeland Security probe into Chinese espionage found that from Jan. 2021 to Oct. 2024 there have been more than 50 Chinese-linked espionage events in 20 states.

“The Chinese Communist Party is not satisfied with destroying freedom and repressing its citizens within its own borders. Beijing has continually encroached upon American sovereignty to spy, intimidate, and harass not only defectors, but even American citizens,” said Rep. Mark Green, the committee chairman.


Steven Richards

Source: https://justthenews.com/government/security/entus-citizen-sentenced-spying-beijing-highlights-reach-chinas-security-service

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Thursday, November 28, 2024

The returning threat: How the IDF disabled Hezbollah's ability to rearm - analysis - Seth J. Frantzman

 

by Seth J. Frantzman

It’s possible the war will start up again, but regardless of what happens, taking out this key Hezbollah capability was a critical play.

 

Smoke billows over Beirut's southern suburbs after an Israeli strike, amid hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as seen from Baabda, Lebanon, November 25, 2024.  (photo credit: REUTERS/THAIER AL-SUDANI)
Smoke billows over Beirut's southern suburbs after an Israeli strike, amid hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as seen from Baabda, Lebanon, November 25, 2024.
(photo credit: REUTERS/THAIER AL-SUDANI)

One of the last acts of the third Lebanon war, which appears to have ended with a ceasefire on November 27, was an IAF strike on a Hezbollah precision-guided missile production site.

This was an important strike, and it was a good way to close the curtain on this two-month war, which began on September 23 with Operation Northern Arrows.

It’s possible the war will start up again, but regardless of what happens, taking out this key Hezbollah capability was important.

Hezbollah has been seeking to acquire more advanced Iranian precision-guided missiles over the last decade. Eventually, over the last five years or so, it sought to move production to Lebanon.

This meant it would have to rely on smuggling via a route that stretches through Syria. Precision-guided munitions, or PGMs, are important because unlike unguided rockets, they can target important sites with precision.

Remains of an Iranian Emad ballistic missile, November 25, 2024. (credit: YONAH JEREMY BOB)Enlrage image
Remains of an Iranian Emad ballistic missile, November 25, 2024. (credit: YONAH JEREMY BOB)

Limiting Hezbollah's ability to return 

Hezbollah has also developed a large number of kamikaze drones that also strike with precision. The IDF has eliminated many senior Hezbollah officers linked to the drone program.

“We degraded Hezbollah’s launch capabilities, struck its strategic assets, eliminated its leadership, and damaged its command and control chain,” IDF Spokesperson R.-Adm. Daniel Hagari said Wednesday. “We have also targeted its ability to rearm and resupply, and we have severely disrupted its ability to carry out its planned infiltration into our territory – a plan it had meticulously prepared to carry out.”

The strike on the PGM site was one of the last acts of this conflict.

“Before the ceasefire came into effect on Tuesday, IAF fighter jets, under the direction of the Intelligence Directorate, struck Hezbollah’s largest precision-guided missile production site in Bekaa’s Janta area,” the IDF said. “The 1.4-kilometer-long underground infrastructure was used to produce surface-to-surface missiles, and components of different weapons, and store a range of precision weapons designated to be used in attacks on Israel.”

The site was “located in an underground compound near the Syrian border,” it said. “Due to its proximity, the site was a central point through which thousands of weapons components and even terrorist operatives were smuggled from Syria and Lebanon.”

Hezbollah’s production capacity for munitions has increased over the last decade with Iranian support, Israel has said.

Iran prefers to move munitions production to Lebanon because Israel has conducted a campaign between the wars to strike Iranian smuggling via Syria.

“In recent years, Hezbollah began building and operating this site with Iranian assistance and cooperation,” the IDF said. “Iranian operatives worked at the site alongside Lebanese Hezbollah terrorists.”

Hezbollah has now lost this site. Nevertheless, it will likely try to increase its PGM production again.

Israel doesn’t want Hezbollah to rearm. The terrorist group will seek to rearm quietly and secretly in the coming months and years.

This means Hezbollah will again be a threat to Israel. The strike on the PGM facility is a setback for it, however, and it provides a window into how it operates.


Seth J. Frantzman

Source: https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-831170

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Trump plans to revive Keystone pipeline, but industry experts say Biden’s damage can’t be undone - Kevin Killough

 

by Kevin Killough

Even with presidential approval, reviving the project would mean restarting all the state, local and federal permitting process, obtaining right-of-ways, and enduring costly litigation from anti-fossil fuel groups.

 

Go oil
President Donald Trump signs an executive order at the White House on Jan. 24, 2017, granting approval of a permit for the Keystone XL pipeline.
(Getty Images)

President-elect Donald Trump will likely reverse President Joe Biden’s cancellation of the Keystone XL oil pipeline, a 1,200 mile project running from Canada to Nebraska. 

Citing unnamed sources, Politico reported that Trump plans to take the action on his first day in office. While the news has been met with excitement over the jobs and economic activity it would bring, experts say Biden’s decision to kill the project has likely destroyed any chance it will ever be built. The decision may also impact large energy projects well into the future. 

Energy analyst David Blackmon, who publishes his work on hisEnergy Absurdities” Substack, told Just the News that Trump’s reversal of the decision will be largely symbolic, but he should still do it anyway. 

“It was really a very damaging thing that the current president did, and so I think it’s really important that Trump does take that action,” Blackmon said. 

Long, costly effort

TransCanada, which is now TC Energy, first proposed the project in 2008. The contested Keystone XL pipeline portion was to be the second half of a pipeline running from Hardisty, Alberta, Canada, to the Gulf Coast, and these two portions are part of a larger pipeline system running through the heart of America. The southern portion, which is now known as the Gulf Coast Pipeline, runs between Cushing, Oklahoma, and Port Arthur, Texas. It was completed in August 2019. 

The second portion of the Keystone XL project would have run from Hardisty to Steele City, Nebraska, but because it crosses an international boundary, it’s required to receive approval from the U.S. Department of State. This gives the president the power to deny, approve or revoke the permits. 

Amid protests, President Barack Obama first rejected TC Energy’s application in 2012 and continued to oppose the project, despite State Department estimates showing it would create 42,000 direct and indirect jobs and add close to $20 billion to the U.S. GDP. After Trump’s first victory, TC energy resubmitted a presidential permit application, and Trump reversed Obama’s rejection with an executive order allowing the project to move forward. 

The Keystone XL segment was more than half complete and on track to be completed by 2022. The project would have transported 830,000 barrels of crude oil per day. As his first act to carry out his campaign promise to “end fossil fuels,” Biden canceled the permit, claiming that it would make climate change worse. 

The cancellation “was a completely unprecedented act of crony politics that should never have happened,” Blackmon said. 

Risky investment

In his second term, Trump could flip the reversal, but resurrecting the project is unlikely to happen. TC energy, Blackmon writes, terminated the project and sold off the assets to South Bow Energy in June. A spokesperson for the company responded to questions from Barron's about reviving the project with no firm commitment. 

After canceling the project, TC Energy removed hundreds of miles of pipe it had already installed to be used in other projects. Also, the right-of-way agreements for the pipeline to pass through private property are nullified, as are other permits for the project. 

“Thus, any effort to revive it by South Bow would necessitate a repetition of the painstaking, years-long process of reacquiring all those miles of rights-of-way and local, state, and federal permits,” Blackmon explained on his Substack. 

The Mountain Valley Pipeline, a $6.6 billion, 300-mile project running from northwestern West Virginia to southern Virginia, will have taken a decade from its announcement to its expected completion date in 2028. The project faced extensive opposition from environmentalists, and litigation against it went all the way to the Supreme Court, which ultimately cleared the way for it to be constructed. Any attempt to resume construction of the Keystone XL would face the same hurdles. 

It’s a tall order to expect investors to risk $8 billion on a decades-long project whose certainty rests on the political whims of the White House. TC Energy’s efforts cost the company $15 billion, according to a lawsuit the company filed to recoup its losses – a request that the courts denied. 

“It's really made it harder not just for companies in the oil industry but for any industry to secure the financing for these big, multi-billion dollar long-term projects related to infrastructure,” Blackmon said. 

Questionable benefits

While environmental groups seeking to block consumers from accessing fossil fuels, like the Natural Resource Defense Council, cheered the termination of the project, the inability for companies with permits in hand to be sure investments are secure also undermines net zero goals, such as transmission lines.  

“I think you're going to see streamlining of permitting processes to be a key focus area in the Trump administration. I don't know how successful they'll be, but they're certainly going to work on that issue,” Blackmon said. 

While environmentalists fight pipelines on the hope the lack of infrastructure will stop consumers from using fossil fuels, the U.S. and Canada have seen record-high production in the time that Biden has been in office, despite the Keystone XL never being realized. Absent pipelines, petroleum products get shipped via rail and trucks, which is much more dangerous and produces more carbon dioxide emissions. 

“So any arguments that this has been better for the environment are, frankly, laughable. Anybody should be ridiculed for even trying to say that,” Blackmon said. 


Kevin Killough

Source: https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/energy/trump-plans-revive-keystone-pipeline-industry-experts-say-bidens-damage-cant

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