by Yoram Ettinger
On March 21, U.S.
President Barack Obama stated at the International Convention Center
that "given the demographics west of the Jordan River, the only way for
Israel to endure and thrive as a Jewish and democratic state is through
the realization of an independent and viable Palestine."
Obama has been
misinformed by his advisers. The suggestion that Israel should concede
Jewish geography to secure Jewish demography ignores demographic trends
in Israel, in the Muslim world in general and west of the Jordan River
in particular. These trends reaffirm that time is working in favor of
Israel's Jewish demography.
Currently, in sharp
contrast with the demographic establishment's projections, there is a 66
percent Jewish majority (6.3 million Jews) in the combined area of
pre-1967 Israel (1.65 million Arabs) and Judea and Samaria (1.66 million
Arabs), compared with a 40% Jewish minority in 1948 and a 9% Jewish
minority in 1900. The Jewish majority enjoys a robust tailwind of high
fertility rates and immigration, which could produce an 80% Jewish
majority by 2035.
These 6.3 million Jews
(including 350,000 new immigrants not yet recognized as Jews by the
rabbinate) expose the systematic errors made by leading demographers. In
1898, the leading Jewish demographer/historian, Simon Dubnov, projected
a meager 500,000 Jews in the Land of Israel by the year 2000. In 1944,
the founder of Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics and the guru of
contemporary Israeli demographers and statisticians, Professor Roberto
Bacchi, projected only 2.3 million Jews in Israel by 2001, a 34%
minority. In 1987, Hebrew University demographer Professor Sergio Della
Pergola told Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth that no substantial aliyah
(immigration to Israel) was expected from the USSR, but a million Soviet
immigrants then arrived.
In a September 2006
article, Professor Arnon Sofer projected that by 2011 there would be 4.5
million Arabs in Judea and Samaria, almost double the actual number
issued in 2011 by the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics — 2.6
million. And, in fact, the Palestinian number was severely inflated: It
included 400,000 overseas residents and a double count of 300,000
Jerusalem Arabs, who are counted both as Israeli Arabs and as West Bank
residents.
In defiance of
demographic projections, Israel's Jewish fertility rate of three births
per woman is higher than any Arab country's other than Yemen, Iraq and
Jordan. The modernity-driven downward trend of Muslim demography is
highlighted by Iran's fertility rate of 1.8 births per woman, Saudi
Arabia's 2.3 and Syria's and Egypt's 2.9. The Westernization of the
Muslim fertility rate was triggered by the unprecedented expansion of
education among women, urbanization and family planning. The surge of
Israel's Jewish fertility rate was triggered by high levels of optimism,
patriotism, collective responsibility, the stable economy and
attachment to roots.
In contrast with
conventional wisdom, Israel's Jewish-Arab fertility gap has been reduced
from six births in 1969 to half a birth in 2012. Moreover, the
fertility rates of Jewish and Arab women in their 20s and 30s — in
Judea, Samaria and pre-1967 Israel — has converged at three births per
woman, with the Jewish rate trending above — and the Arab rate trending
below — three births. Furthermore, the fertility rate of Israeli-born
Jewish women is already above three births per woman.
In defiance of the
demographic profession, the annual number of Israel's Jewish births has
surged by 62.5% from 80,400 in 1995 to 130,000 in 2012, while the annual
number of Israeli Arab births has been sustained at around 40,000
annually. In 1995, there were 2.3 Jewish births for one Arab birth; in
2012 there were 3.2 Jewish births for one Arab birth.
In 1995 Jewish births
amounted to 69% of total births and in 2012 to 77% of total births. In
2013, the Jerusalem Jewish fertility rate is currently 4.2 births,
compared with the 3.9 Arab fertility rate.
Contrary to political
correctness, Israel's Jewish fertility rate is surging at a time when
the fertility rate of the ultra-Orthodox sector is in decline, due to
its growing integration into the employment market and military service.
The surge in fertility is produced by Israel's secular Jews, and mostly
by the yuppies around Tel Aviv and the immigrants from the former USSR.
"The stronger the
Jewish commitment, the more likely Jews are to have children. Living in
the Land of Israel is one of the strongest manifestations of Jewish
commitment ... As unique as the Jews are among the world's people, their
fertility in Israel is also unique among the nations, and cause for
optimism about the future of the Jewish people," David Goldman, author
of "How Civilizations Die," wrote (in Focus, Spring 2013, the Jewish
Policy Center).
Anyone suggesting that
Jews are doomed to become a minority west of the Jordan River is either
dramatically mistaken or outrageously misleading.
Yoram Ettinger
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=3913
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.