Middle East and Terrorism: 2024-10-20

Saturday, October 26, 2024

'Days of Repentance': Israel hits multiple targets across Iran in retaliatory strikes - Yuval Barnea, Corrine Baum

by Yuval Barnea, Corrine Baum

The attack occurred in three major waves, with the second and third waves targeting Iranian drone and missile production sites, hitting over 20 targets.

Explosions seen near Tehran, amid an Israeli attack on Iran, October 26, 2024

(photo credit: SOCIAL MEDIA/VIA SECTION 27A OF THE COPYRIGHT ACT)

Israel confirmed it had struck numerous military sites during its retaliatory strikes on Iran on Saturday in an operation later named "Days of Repentance."

The attack was declared over by 5:45 a.m., just as the sun began rising over Tehran, according to public broadcaster KAN11.

The attack occurred in three major waves, US and Israeli officials said. The second and third waves targeted Iranian drone and missile production sites, hitting over 20 targets, according to Axios and the New York Times.

Iran told AFP that it had not received any reports of injuries from the strikes.

The IDF later announced early Saturday morning that it had completed its reactive operation against Iran.

The IDF said that the strikes were conducted in response to the continuous attacks on the State of Israel and its citizens.

The IDF confirmed the operation was over and that all mission goals had been achieved, with all planes returning safely home.

The IAF struck missile manufacturing sites that produced the missiles Iran fired at Israel over the last year.

Simultaneously, the IDF struck surface-to-air missile arrays intended to restrict Israel's aerial freedom of operation in Iran.

"The State of Israel reserves the right to defend its citizens if the Iranian regime continues attacks against the State of Israel and its civilians," the IDF said.

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant was directing the attacks from a secure complex in IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv, according to Israeli media.

"The IDF is currently attacking precise targets in Iran," IDF Spokesperson Daniel Hagari said in a statement. "This is in response to persisting attacks by the Iranian regime on the State of Israel.

A second wave of airstrikes was reported following blasts heard in Shiraz later on early Saturday morning.

Strikes in Tehran as part of the Israeli response, October 26, 2024. (CREDIT: SOCIAL MEDIA/VIA SECTION 27 OF THE COPYRIGHT ACT)

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant seen following the attack on Iran, October 26, 2024 (credit: Avi Ohayon/GPO)

"The IDF is completely prepared in attack and in defense. We are following the developments from Iran and its proxies in the region."

In response to months of continuous attacks from the regime in Iran against the State of Israel—right now the Israel Defense Forces is conducting precise strikes on military targets in Iran.

The regime in Iran and its proxies in the region have been relentlessly attacking… pic.twitter.com/OcHUy7nQvN
— Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) October 25, 2024

No change in Home Front Command orders was announced. Israel's Security Cabinet also convened in order to approve the strikes.

Over 100 planes were involved in the 2000 k.m. attack, including the cutting-edge F-35, according to Walla.

The United States was notified by Israel ahead of its strikes on targets in Iran but was not involved in the operation, a US official told Reuters.

“We understand that Israel is conducting targeted strikes against military targets in Iran as an exercise of self-defense and in response to Iran’s ballistic missile attack against Israel on October 1," said Sean Savett, White House National Security Council spokesperson, in a statement. "We would refer you to the Israeli government for more information on their operation."

Sites in Iran

Israel reportedly attacked the location of the headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps in Iran.

“We’re targeting things that might have threatened us in the past or could do in the future,” NBC News quoted an Israeli official saying. The official further stated that Israel is not striking Iranian nuclear facilities or oil fields and is focusing on military targets.

There were reports of widespread internet outages across Iran as the attacks continued.

Several of the strikes in Tehran targeted military bases across southern and southwestern Tehran, according to Iranian media.

A video obtained by @IranIntl_En shows an explosion near the grave of Rouhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic, in Kahrizak, south of Tehran. pic.twitter.com/MHimo2XD2Z
— Iran International English (@IranIntl_En) October 26, 2024

Karaj, one of the cities where explosions were heard, contains one of Iran's nuclear power plants.

The Tasnim news agency said that "nothing has been reported about hearing the sound of rockets or airplanes in the sky of Tehran so far."

Iranian officials and media have been denying that Israeli airstrikes took place, saying explosions were a result of Iranian air defense; an Israeli official strenuously denied this to Ynet, saying, "This is a lie. Total failure - zero interceptions."

Loud sirens were heard in Sadeghiyeh (Aryashahr) neighborhood in western Tehran as Israel started its airstrikes, a video obtained by @IranIntl_En shows. pic.twitter.com/vpagCU5l5Y
— Iran International English (@IranIntl_En) October 26, 2024

Reports of explosions at the Imam Khomeini International Airport in the Iranian capital were also received. However, Iranian officials denied anything was wrong.

Parallel operations

The IDF began an artillery attack on the Al-Bureij refugee camp in the Gaza Strip as part of the broader series of strikes across the region, including both aerial and ground attacks on terrorist strongholds, according to Israeli media.

Israel also attacked targets in Syria, with the Syrian military confirming that the IDF had struck sites across central and southern Syria.

Explosions were also reported in Iraq as part of the series of responses to Iran and its proxy groups throughout the region.

There were no planes flying over Syria or northern Iraq during the time of the suspected attack. Iran closed its airspace following the attack, according to Maariv.

On Friday, a fire was reported at an Iranian Defense Ministry site in Tehran, although the Tehran Fire Department denied any connection.

This is a developing story.

Yuval Barnea, Corrine Baum

Source: https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-826117

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Significant blow or warning shot? What Israel achieved in Operation Days of Repentance - analysis - Amir Bohbot

by Amir Bohbot

The results of Operation Days of Repentance are still unclear, but the burning question is whether it ended the cycle of attacks between the two countries or renewed them.

A photo of an alleged Iranian drone production site hit by Israel in Operation Days of Repentance, October 26, 2024.

(photo credit: SCREENSHOT/X, SECTION 27A COPYRIGHT ACT)

Last night, an Israeli fear barrier was broken. In the intricate dynamics of the Middle East, a second round of Israeli strikes in Iran appears increasingly likely. Rockets, missiles, and UAVs—either Iranian-made or Iranian-funded—are launched almost daily against Israel’s home front.

The critical question now is: What was the purpose of this strike at this particular moment, with the IDF engaged on two fronts—Gaza and Lebanon? Was it intended to degrade Iranian military production capabilities and disable launch systems? Or was it aimed at sending a deterrent message, reducing the cycle of retaliatory actions?

Iran’s response will soon clarify the situation. If Tehran’s reaction is limited to rhetoric encouraging the “Axis of Evil” to align in Lebanon and Gaza, it may signal that the political decision and military action have achieved Israel’s objectives. But if Iran retaliates directly or through proxies in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, or Lebanon, it could mean Tehran perceives Israel’s airstrikes as weak and indecisive. Such a perception, however, underscores a vital point.

One significant takeaway from this strike is a sense of weakness in America. If Israel’s Air Force undertakes additional strikes on Iran, they are likely to differ, as Iran’s defensive and offensive capabilities have been reduced, limiting the threats posed to Israeli aircraft.

This raises a core dilemma: what should the next target be? Further strikes on military sites similar to those targeted last night? Oil infrastructure? The nuclear project?

Explosions in Tehran from Israel's retaliatory strikes, October 26, 2024. (credit: SCREENSHOT/X, SECTION 27A COPYRIGHT ACT)

No containment from the US

Last night’s strike in Iran—and the recent one in Yemen—highlight American weakness. Middle Eastern nations and the world observe Israel as it issues threats and warnings and ultimately takes action.

Meanwhile, the United States appears weakened in its response to emerging threats, attempting to restrain Israel’s political and military leaders from more assertive actions. This perception ultimately strengthens Israel’s position, particularly with Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

In the coming days, undeniable evidence of the damage in Iran will emerge, despite Tehran’s efforts to downplay the extent of the Air Force’s success. Was “the king” exposed, or was this operation a strategic move aimed at preventing a broader escalation?

Amir Bohbot

Source: https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-826153

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Senate Republicans threaten UN funding if global body sidelines Israel - Andrew Bernard

by Andrew Bernard

“A move to downgrade Israel’s status at the United Nations would be a new low, even for an organization that is as rife with antisemites as the U.N.,” said Sen. Tom Cotton.

Pascale Christine Baeriswyl (left), the Swiss envoy to the United Nations and U.N. Security Council president for October, greets Riyad Mansour, the Palestinian "permanent observer" to the global body, ahead of the Security Council meeting on the situation in the Middle East on Oct. 9, 2024. Credit: Eskinder Debebe/U.N. Photo.

Sen. Jim Risch (R-Idaho), ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and 27 other Republican senators introduced legislation on Tuesday that would cut off U.S. funding to the United Nations and its subsidiary agencies if they downgrade Israel’s status.

“Reports indicate that the Palestinian Authority will attempt to downgrade Israel’s status at the United Nations” following a U.N. General Assembly vote in May, the 28 senators wrote. That vote saw Palestinians gain new rights within their existing non-member “permanent observer” status, which is short of full U.N. membership.

“Any attempt to alter Israel’s status at the United Nations is clearly antisemitic,” Risch stated. “That said, if the U.N. member states allow the Palestinian Authority and the Palestine Liberation Organization to downgrade Israel’s status at the U.N., the U.S. must stop supporting the U.N. system, as it would clearly be beyond repair.”

Risch added that he is “disgusted that this outrageous idea has even been discussed and will do all we can to ensure any changes to Israel’s status will come with consequences.”

Titled the “Stand with Israel Act,” the bill would forbid the federal government from disbursing funds to “the United Nations or any of its funds, programs, specialized agencies or other related entities” if the global body “expels, downgrades or suspends membership, or otherwise restricts the participation of Israel.”

The United States is the largest contributor to the world body, giving it and its agencies $18 billion in 2022—about one-third of the total U.N. budget.

Those contributions are mandatory for members of the U.N. General Assembly under the global body’s “assessed contributions” system. Countries that fall into arrears on paying their contributions are stripped of their vote in the General Assembly.

Objections are longstanding in Washington to paying for the budget in Turtle Bay.

In 1982, then-Secretary of State George Schultz threatened U.S. withdrawal from any U.N. body that did not seat Israel. The United States nearly lost its General Assembly vote in a budget dispute in 1999. Former president Donald Trump cut off funding to the U.N. Palestinian aid agency, UNRWA, in 2018 and negotiated a lower overall U.N. budget in 2017.

U.S. President Joe Biden restored funding to UNRWA before suspending it again in March after Israel accused employees of participating directly in the Hamas terrorist attacks in southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023.

Several of the senators co-sponsoring the Stand with Israel Act said Jew-hatred at the United Nations undermines the agency’s effectiveness.

“A move to downgrade Israel’s status at the United Nations would be a new low, even for an organization that is as rife with antisemites as the United Nations,” stated Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.).

“Unfortunately, antisemitism has pervaded the United Nations for decades and discredits the U.N. mission,” stated Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska). “It must end.”

Under existing U.S. law, Washington must cut off funding to the United Nations or any of its subsidiaries if the Palestinians are granted full membership outside of a negotiated settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Reps. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) and Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.) introduced companion legislation to the Senate act in the House in August with bipartisan support.

Andrew Bernard

Source: https://www.jns.org/senate-republicans-threaten-un-funding-if-global-body-sidelines-israel/

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China's Blockade of Taiwan: Irresistible Momentum to War - Gordon G. Chang

by Gordon G. Chang

Xi -- is trying to intimidate everyone else into submission.

Beijing maintains that the island has been an "inalienable" part of China since time immemorial. The People's Republic has never exercised control over Taiwan. In fact, no Chinese regime has ever held indisputable sovereignty to it. Chiang Kai-shek, the first Chinese ruler to exercise control of the whole island, arrived in 1949.
A quarantine is a cunning maneuver at a time that China is not prepared for a full-scale war and is not ready to start hostilities by launching an invasion of Taiwan's main island.
Not prepared? Xi Jinping does not trust the Chinese military, a war on Taiwan would be extremely unpopular with the Chinese people, and the Chinese regime is extremely casualty averse.
Xi, therefore, is trying to intimidate everyone else into submission.
"The real target is the United States." ... They were "practicing ways to ambush the U.S. Navy if it heads towards an already held-hostage Taiwan." — Chang Ching of the R.O.C. Society for Strategic Studies.
Xi's implied threats to use these weapons are particularly ominous. We have to ask ourselves: When in history has a militant regime engaged in belligerent acts and constantly threatened to go to war but did not actually do so?

China on October 22 conducted live-fire exercises in the Taiwan Strait.

The bellicose move follows a 13-hour simulated blockade of Taiwan on October 14 and 15. The People's Liberation Army, in the Joint Sword-2024B exercises, employed a record 153 planes as well 26 ships, including the Liaoning, one of the country's three aircraft carriers.

The Chinese Coast Guard participated in the massive drill as well, carrying out, as the Economist noted, an "unprecedented" patrol around the main Taiwan island.

The drill, according to the Chinese Coast Guard, was a "practical action to control Taiwan island in accordance with the law based on the one-China principle."

The announced drill zones for Joint Sword-2024B were only 24 nautical miles from Taiwan's shoreline, closer than zones in previous exercises.

Observers suggested the presence of Coast Guard vessels, dedicated to domestic law enforcement activities, signaled that China was buttressing its claim that Taiwan was Chinese territory.

Beijing maintains that the island has been an "inalienable" part of China since time immemorial. The People's Republic has never exercised control over Taiwan. In fact, no Chinese regime has ever held indisputable sovereignty to it. Chiang Kai-shek, the first Chinese ruler to exercise control of the whole island, arrived in 1949.

Taiwan officials have told visiting foreigners that they expect Beijing to impose a quarantine over the island republic in the coming months.

"With Joint Sword, the Communist Party of China is developing and finalizing their quarantine concept for Taiwan," John Mills, a retired U.S. Army colonel, told Gatestone. "They know a blockade is an act of war, so they're playing the quarantine game, modeled after what President Kennedy did in 1963 for Cuba."

"When the Chinese initiate their quarantine, they will target vessels carrying weapons shipments, such as the recent one that ferried Harpoon missiles," said Mills, who was director of Cybersecurity Policy, Strategy, and International Affairs in the Office of the Secretary of Defense. "They will also target civil aircraft carrying personalities that they want to render to Chinese control. Undersea cables will also likely be cut."

When will this happen? There is wide disagreement. Mills believes that the Chinese could declare their quarantine this year or soon after.

A quarantine is a cunning maneuver at a time that China is not prepared for a full-scale war and is not ready to start hostilities by launching an invasion of Taiwan's main island.

Not prepared? Xi Jinping does not trust the Chinese military, a war on Taiwan would be extremely unpopular with the Chinese people, and the Chinese regime is extremely casualty averse.

Xi, therefore, is trying to intimidate everyone else into submission. "The purposes of the exercises are to threaten Taiwan's security to the point that the Taiwan people lose confidence in their government and to change the status quo of a Taiwan separate from China," Elizabeth Freund Larus of the Atlantic Council Global China Hub told Fox News Digital.

"They were using a very old Chinese strategy called 'encircling the point/striking the reinforcement'" said Chang Ching of the R.O.C. Society for Strategic Studies, who examined the track of Russian and Chinese vessels before Joint Sword-2024B. "The real target is the United States," the Taiwan analyst told Fox. They were "practicing ways to ambush the U.S. Navy if it heads towards an already held-hostage Taiwan."

Xi may think he can take Taiwan with just a quarantine, which is not an act of war, but the risk for him is that if the move fails he has to move to a full blockade, which is. The Chinese military announced that Joint Sword-2024B practices a "key port blockade." A quarantine, therefore, could start a chain of events that leads to conflict.

For a blockade to be successful, it will almost certainly have to include sovereign Japanese territory, specifically the island of Yonaguni, Japan's westernmost inhabited territory. Taiwan's mountains are visible from this small island south of Taipei. The U.S. has a mutual defense treaty with Japan, which means once China declares a blockade, the resulting war will pull in the U.S.

If Xi's quarantine fails, he cannot back down. At the moment, only the most belligerent answers are considered acceptable in senior Communist Party circles. The extreme hostility suggests something is wrong in the Chinese capital, so the world should be prepared for anything, at anyplace, and at any time.

China is capable of the inconceivable. The regime released a propaganda barrage on October 19, showcasing China's military might just two days after Xi, who is also chairman of the Party's Central Military Commission, had inspected a brigade of the People's Liberation Army's Rocket Force.

Xi urged the missile troops to, among other things, sharpen "combat capabilities."

The Rocket Force, which test-launched an intercontinental ballistic missile in the general direction of Hawaii on September 25, has responsibility for most of the country's nuclear weapons.

Xi's implied threats to use these weapons are particularly ominous. We have to ask ourselves: When in history has a militant regime engaged in belligerent acts and constantly threatened to go to war but did not actually do so?

Nothing is inevitable, but now there is an almost irresistible momentum to war.

Follow Gordon G. Chang on X (formerly Twitter)

Gordon G. Chang is the author of Plan Red: China's Project to Destroy America and The Coming Collapse of China, a Gatestone Institute distinguished senior fellow, and a member of its Advisory Board.

Source: https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/21047/china-blockade-of-taiwan

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Three years after FBI got evidence of voter registration fraud, another new scheme emerges in PA - Natalia Mittelstadt and John Solomon

by Natalia Mittelstadt and John Solomon

The new scheme uncovered in Lancaster County mirrors a similar operation that Michigan police investigated in 2020 that was referred to the FBI, which has yet to announce any arrests or charges.

In the aftermath of the messy 2020 election, Michigan police sent to the FBI a strong body of evidence documenting a multi-state scheme to submit fraudulent voter applications. Three years later, nobody can explain what the bureau did with the case as a similar scheme has now surfaced in the battleground state of Pennsylvania with less than two weeks to go before Election Day.

Prosecutors in Lancaster County said Friday they had uncovered a large-scale scheme to submit fraudulent voter applications that were collected at shopping malls and other locations. Lancaster County District Attorney Heather Adams told a news conference that detectives have found about 60% of some 2,500 voter registrations submitted in recent days to the county's election office were fraudulent.

"At this point, it is believed that the fraudulent voter registrations are connected to a large-scale canvassing operation for voter registrations that date back to June," Adams said. The prosecutor said that while detectives continue to review applications, they have confirmed fake names, identifications, and signatures were used to submit applications and create potentially fake voters. In some cases, real voters' names were used but the voter said they neither approved nor signed the registrations.

"The District Attorney stated that the majority of applications were from residents in the City of Lancaster," according to a joint statement from the county District Attorney and the Board of Elections. "Applications were also received from residents in Columbia, Elizabethtown, Mount Joy, Akron, Ephrata, Stevens, Strasburg as well as other locations across Lancaster County. These canvasses took place at various shopping centers, parking lots of grocery stores, other businesses, sidewalks, and parks."

"At this point we have confirmed violations of our crime code," Adams said.

Large batches

Adams added that she was aware of at least two other counties that may have similar concerns about recent voter registration applications dropped off in large batches.

"Staff noticed that numerous applications appeared to have the same handwriting (and) were filled out on the same day," Adams said during the press conference. “The confirmed indicators of fraud that detectives came across were inaccuracies with the addresses listed on the applications, fake and false personal identification information, as well as false names," she continued. "Also, applications that had names that did not match the provided Social Security information."

Lancaster is a politically influential county in the battleground state and home to a large Amish population that both parties have courted. Pennsylvania's State Department, which oversees elections, praised Lancaster County for its quick actions.

"The Department has been in contact with the county and is offering support in its ongoing investigation. The Department applauds the efforts of the election staff for their diligent work in spotting this potential fraud and bringing it to the attention of law enforcement," the agency said in a statement.

"The Department guidance in cases like this is for counties to immediately contact law enforcement, which is exactly what Lancaster County officials did," the statement added.

Similar to Michigan scheme

The scheme uncovered in Lancaster County mirrors a similar operation that Michigan police investigated in 2020 in Muskegon that was referred to the FBI, which has yet to announce any arrests or charges.

In August 2023, the Michigan attorney general's office confirmed that there was a state investigation into thousands of suspected fraudulent voter registrations during the 2020 election. That investigation was referred to the FBI, the Bridge Michigan reported.

Danny Wimmer, press secretary for the Michigan attorney general, told Just the News at the time that among 8,000 to 10,000 voter registration forms that were submitted to the Muskegon clerk before the 2020 general election, some were, after review, suspected to be fraudulent.

"An organization turned in some thousands of voter registrations throughout the fall of 2020, estimated on the high end to be cumulatively 8-10,000, and some within those batches were found to be suspicious or fraudulent," Wimmer said. "There were legitimate registrations within the batches. The city clerk receiving the batches alerted authorities when she began noticing irregularities."

"None of the fraudulent material was incorporated into the state’s qualified voter file, and this had no effect on any ballot requests or associated processes. This attempted fraud was detected because the system worked," Wimmer added.

According to the dozens of pages of police reports from the Muskegon Police Department and Michigan State Police, a firm called GBI Strategies was under scrutiny as an organization central to alleged voter registration fraud in the 2020 presidential election. The matter was initially investigated by city and state authorities before the FBI took over in 2021.

The status and results of the FBI investigation are unknown as the agency denied a Freedom of Information/Privacy Acts request from Just the News regarding records from the investigation into GBI Strategies. The FBI's denial stated that the investigation "was still ongoing."

There is a business listing for GBI Strategies in Cordova, Tenn., but at least during the 2020 election, the company had a Philadelphia office, employees from Atlanta working in Michigan, and a supervisor in New York for Michigan workers, according to memos from police in Michigan.

Wimmer told The Detroit News that GBI Strategies conducts voter registration drives and is headquartered in Tennessee.

The Michigan secretary of state’s office also previously told Just the News, “Michigan's 2020 election was found to be secure and accurate by hundreds of audits, numerous courts, and the Republican-led state Senate Oversight Committee.”

In response to a request for comment, the Lancaster County district attorney’s office shared the joint statement from the county district attorney and Board of Elections and stated, "As the District Attorney noted during the press conference, she will not be sharing any details on the actors at this time as it is still an ongoing criminal investigation."

Lancaster County detectives and the FBI didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment on Friday.

Natalia Mittelstadt and John Solomon

Source: https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/3-yrs-after-fbi-received-voter-registration-fraud-evidence-new-scheme

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IDF uncovers extensive Hezbollah tunnel near Israeli border, revealing threat of surprise attacks - Tovah Lazaroff

by Tovah Lazaroff

Until last week, when the IDF uncovered the tunnel, this home would have been the launching pad for an October 7-style attack against Israel.

SOUTHERN LEBANON – Nestled in the scenic hills of southern Lebanon in the backyard of a private home near the Israeli border is the entryway to a 1.5 kilometer Hezbollah tunnel with the capacity to house hundreds of enemy fighters.

Until last week, when the IDF’s Yahalom Unit uncovered the tunnel, this home would have been the launching pad for an October 7-style attack against Israel, with soldiers pouring from the ground to head to and cross the border.

On Saturday the IDF destroyed the tunnel. But on Monday night before it was blown up, Brig.-Gen. Guy Levy, who heads the IDF’s 98th Division, led a group of Israeli journalists to see firsthand the subterranean battlefields, which first marked the IDF’s war with Hamas and is now a significant part of the army’s battle against Hezbollah.

“We are at a central intersection of this tunnel,” which is also a “very significant underground combat compound,” said Levy as he stood in the concrete underground shaft.

An underground Hezbollah complex raided by IDF soldiers, October 24, 2024. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON'S UNIT)

“The enemy built this over many years to prepare to attack Israel,” he said. “It can hold hundreds of terrorists for an extended stay of weeks” and extends “hundreds of meters.”

The late-night journey into Lebanon began in the parking lot of a supermarket in Kiryat Shmona, a city that has been under rocket fire since the IDF-Hezbollah war began on October 8, one day after the Hamas invasion of southern Israel.

Hezbollah tunnel media tour

Israel evacuated its northern residents from that border area, including the border city of Kiryat Shmona, fearing a Hezbollah invasion.

Close to one year later, on October 1, when the IDF entered southern Lebanon, the army declassified documents relating to a long-planned Hezbollah operation to attack Israel called “Conquer the Galilee.”

In the weeks that followed, the IDF has discovered tunnels that would have been involved in the attack and has shown them to journalists, to underscore the danger Israel had faced and would face if its forces were not in southern Lebanon.

But the tunnel it revealed to the media on Monday night was unusually large and extensive.

In Kiryat Shmona, reporters donned flak jackets and helmets before entering army jeeps, where they sat on rickety benches and a cloth covering. The road became darker as the jeeps drew closer to the border itself and to a base, with a large Israeli flag hanging from an outer wall.

From here, reporters were asked to turn their cellphones onto airplane mode to avoid detection.

As the jeeps crossed the border, an intelligence officer with the group quipped, “Since I’d like to live, actually just turn them off altogether to be safe.”

In the still darkness, one could hear only the jeep’s engines and explosions in the distance. Dust from the jeeps hung in the air. One could see the shapes of trees dotting the Lebanese landscape and the occasional deserted structures, including homes, before the jeep came to a stop next to several scattered single-family homes.

“Welcome abroad,” one of the soldiers joked after the reporters had descended from the jeeps.

Maj. A, a Yahalom Unit company commander reports on the discovery a massive Hezbollah underground facility. (Credit: IDF Spokesperson's Unit)

Another soldier silenced him, urging the reporters to move quickly down and then up a small unpaved road to what looked like a residential home.

Reporters walked down a side stone stairwell and onto a first-floor side porch. Here they were shown a map of the tunnel drawn by a magic marker on a white door that had been removed from its frame and was now used as a whiteboard.

From here, reporters climbed over the porch wall, into the yard, and then down into the tunnel with a winding stairwell that led to the larger intersection point of three of the tunnel’s arched alleyways, which were only wide enough to fit two or three people side by side.

Levy addressed the group. Although he stood next to a utility box and an electric light designed to be generator powered, these were no longer operating, so his face was lit up by flashlights and camera bulbs.

IDF forces went through a 48-hour battle to take this village, including a fierce fight at the entry to the tunnel shaft, he said.

Reporters were shown a storage room with rifles, RPK machine guns, Kornet anti-tank missiles, and boxes of ammunition. Some of the weapons originated from Iran, according to Lt.-Col. Yoni HaCohen, the commander of the 890th Paratroopers Battalion.

Intermixed in the same storage room were boxes of food and medical supplies.

The tunnel, which had a lighting system throughout, also had multiple bathrooms, as well as large chambers with mattresses or cots so that soldiers could sleep.

In one room, a rifle had been left on a bed with a purple sheet and a water bottle.

There was more than one exit point from the tunnel so that soldiers could enter and exit at different points. The soldiers that spoke to the media said they planned to continue searching for additional tunnels to make sure that Hezbollah could not pose a subterranean threat to Israel.

“I feel like I have entered the belly of the enemy, taken when they built over years,” said Lt.-Col. Yoni HaCohen.Finding this tunnel and destroying it, he said, “is a great success.”

Tovah Lazaroff

Source: https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-826191

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Elon Musk, Tucker Carlson and RFK Jr. to speak at Trump rally at Madison Square Garden in NYC - Charlotte Hazard

by Charlotte Hazard

Other speakers at the Sunday rally include former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Rep. Byron Donalds, former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard and Rep. Elise Stefanik.

GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump's upcoming rally at Madison Square Garden will feature, among others, speakers Elon Musk, Tucker Carlson and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Trump is planning to hold the rally in New York City on Sunday at 5 p.m. ET.

Other speakers include former Democratic Hawaii Congresswoman turned Republican Tulsi Gabbard, Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., Rep. Byron Donalds, R-Fla. and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. The total list provided by the campaign includes 30 names.

As Election Day gets closer, both Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris and Trump have been ramping up their campaign stops.

Harris held a rally in Houston, Texas, Friday with music star Beyonce, while Trump recently got the endorsement of country singer Jason Aldean in Georgia.

Trump went on the "Joe Rogan Experience" podcast Friday and the episode already has over 10 million views.

Charlotte Hazard

Source: https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/all-things-trump/elon-musk-tucker-carlson-and-rfk-jr-speak-trump-rally-madison

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Iranian Missiles Hit Europe: Europe Does Nothing - Majid Rafizadeh

by Majid Rafizadeh

Europe should sever all trade relations with Iran. Every euro that flows into Iran is likely being funneled into Tehran's military machine and its support for Russia's war in Ukraine.

Iran's Islamist regime has never made a secret of its ambitions. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who seized power following the overthrow of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and established the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979, said: "We shall export our revolution to the whole world. Until the cry 'There is no god but Allah' resounds over the whole world, there will be struggle."
Ignoring the warning signs will only make the price Europe pays even higher.
The question is, how much more aggression will Europe tolerate before it recognizes the full extent of the threat?
How come Europeans do not seem as distressed about the deaths of civilians in Ukraine as in Lebanon and Gaza?
All the EU seems to do is issue statements of condemnation against Israel, which is sacrificing the lives of its people to save these sanctimonious ingrates.
The first step should be to formally designate Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its elite Quds Force as terrorist organizations. This would send a powerful signal that Europe is no longer willing to tolerate Iran's military and ideological expansion, and it would empower law enforcement across the continent to act decisively against Iranian operatives.
Europe should also take a bold step of shutting down all Iranian embassies and consulates on its soil.
Europe should sever all trade relations with Iran. Every euro that flows into Iran is likely being funneled into Tehran's military machine and its support for Russia's war in Ukraine.
The EU also needs to be prepared to form a coalition to back up its words with military action. Continuing to sit passively while Iranian missiles and drones rain down on a European nation is not a strategy; it is a surrender
If Europe finds itself too hesitant to confront the Iranian regime directly, it should at the very least stand by those who are fighting the Iranian regime and its proxies. Israel has taken the lead in confronting Iranian aggression in the Middle East. Rather than undermining Israel for defending itself and the West against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, the EU should do everything it can support these heroes. Abandoning Israel while it fights Iranian-backed terror only weakens Europe and plays into the hands of everyone working to bring it down.
By responding with empty words as Iranian missiles hit European soil, the EU is essentially green-lighting Tehran to escalate its aggression. The lessons of Nazi Germany are there for everyone to see.
The time has come for Europe to support those risking their lives to take down this terror regime before they get a nuclear bomb.
Most grateful of all would be the people of Iran.

Iran is arming Russia with missiles and attack drones, which are being used to strike Ukraine. That war is no longer just a regional conflict between Russia and Ukraine. When Iranian missiles target Ukraine, they are striking Europe itself. If this isn't the prelude to a direct act of war by Iran against all of Europe and the individual freedoms it stands for, then what is? Pictured: Firefighters in Kyiv, Ukraine try to put out a fire in a four-story residential building, in which three people were killed when it was hit by an attack drone, on October 17, 2022. (Photo by Paula Bronstein/Getty Images)

The European powers' current approach to Iran is uncomfortably reminiscent of how, in the 1930s, they dealt with Nazi Germany.

European democracies, choosing appeasement over confrontation, turned a blind eye to Hitler's rising aggression. This indulgence, not surprisingly, simply emboldened the Nazis, and led to the horrors of World War II.

Today, in a similar fashion, the Europe's passivity toward Iran's escalating threats is just bolstering its regime. Iran, called by the 2023 US annual Terrorism Report, "the world's leading state sponsor of terrorism," is on the cusp of acquiring nuclear weapons.

Iran's Islamist regime has never made a secret of its ambitions. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who seized power following the overthrow of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and established the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979, said:

"We shall export our revolution to the whole world. Until the cry 'There is no god but Allah' resounds over the whole world, there will be struggle."[1]

Iran's regime is promising either Western capitulation or a major conflict. Ignoring the warning signs will only make the price Europe pays even higher.

Iran is arming Russia with missiles and attack drones, which are being used to strike Ukraine. That war is no longer just a regional conflict between Russia and Ukraine. When Iranian missiles target Ukraine, they are striking Europe itself. If this isn't the prelude to a direct act of war by Iran against all of Europe and the individual freedoms it stands for, then what is? Iran, as has been no secret, has clearly aligned itself with a "new Axis of Evil" consisting of Russia, China, North Korea and Iran.

Iran's partnership with Russia will not likely end with Ukraine. The mullahs seem to have their sights set on helping Russia continuing to expand its influence. Perhaps, after Ukraine, Russia will try to pick off Moldova, then the Baltic States, then wherever it looks as if it will not be much resistance. The question is, how much more aggression will Europe tolerate before it recognizes the full extent of the threat?

Iranian-supplied missiles and attack drones are destroying Ukrainian infrastructure and targeting key cities such as Kyiv. These attacks are causing significant damage as well as killing countless innocent Ukrainians. How come Europeans do not seem as distressed about the deaths of civilians in Ukraine as in Gaza and Lebanon?

All the EU seems to do is issue statements of condemnation against Israel, which is sacrificing the lives of its people to save these sanctimonious ingrates. What does that achieve?

It is time for Europe to go beyond demonizing the one country that is saving them -- and to stop firing nothing but words at the countries causing the mayhem.

The first step should be to formally designate Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its elite Quds Force as terrorist organizations. This would send a powerful signal that Europe is no longer willing to tolerate Iran's military and ideological expansion, and it would empower law enforcement across the continent to act decisively against Iranian operatives.

Europe should also take a bold step of shutting down all Iranian embassies and consulates, and expelling their personnel, before another terror plot comes to fruition.

The case of Assadollah Assadi, the Iranian diplomat who was convicted for plotting a terror attack in France, should have been a wake-up call. These so-called Iranian diplomats do not seem to have been appointed to foster international cooperation. They appear rather as agents of espionage and terror. The longer European leaders allow these seditious diplomatic outposts to operate, the greater the threat to European security.

Europe should sever all trade relations with Iran. Every euro that flows into Iran is likely being funneled into Tehran's military machine and its support for Russia's war in Ukraine. The cost of continuing these commercial ties is the further destabilization of Europe's eastern borders and the empowerment of a regime that is openly hostile to the West. By trading with Iran, it is actually funding and empowering its enemies.

The EU also needs to be prepared to form a coalition to back up its words with military action. Continuing to sit passively while Iranian missiles and drones rain down on a European nation is not a strategy; it is a surrender. The EU should put Iran's oil infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and military assets on the table as potential targets. This would deliver a clear message to the Iranian regime: Europe will not just look the other way when its cities are threatened. Such a show of strength could deter further aggression and force Iran to rein in.

If Europe finds itself too hesitant to confront the Iranian regime directly, it should at the very least stand by those who are fighting the Iranian regime and its proxies. Israel has taken the lead in confronting Iranian aggression in the Middle East. Rather than undermining Israel for defending itself and the West against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, the EU should do everything it can support these heroes. Abandoning Israel while it fights Iranian-backed terror only weakens Europe and plays into the hands of everyone working to bring it down.

By responding with empty words as Iranian missiles hit European soil, the EU is essentially green-lighting Tehran to escalate its aggression. The lessons of Nazi Germany are there for everyone to see.

The time has come for Europe to support those risking their lives to take down this terror regime before they get a nuclear bomb.

Most grateful of all would be the people of Iran.

[1] February 11, 1979 (according to Dilip Hiro in The Longest War p.32) p.108 from Excerpts from Speeches and Messages of Imam Khomeini on the Unity of the Muslims.

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Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a business strategist and advisor, Harvard-educated scholar, political scientist, board member of Harvard International Review, and president of the International American Council on the Middle East. He has authored several books on Islam and US Foreign Policy. He can be reached at Dr.Rafizadeh@Post.Harvard.Edu

Source: https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/21048/iranian-missiles-hit-europe

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The New October Surprise: A Positive Appeal by Trump? - Thaddeus G. McCotter

by Thaddeus G. McCotter

Mr. Trump should end his campaign on a positive, unifying note rather than relying on a last-minute attack.

Ah, the “wisdom” of the swamp! That repository of dated, derivative, “inside the box” political thought that turns into a campaign’s coffin. Fortunately, for the swamp’s denizens, there’s a sucker—er, campaign—born every cycle, ensuring riches remain to be made.

Pundits earn a handsome living providing free political advice. Rarely does a candidate or their campaign heed it and if they do, it is invariably to their detriment. The reason is simple: it is rarely realistic or right. The only thing rarer is the pundit being held accountable for spewing their inanities to the masses and the consequences that follow. But, hey, that’s entertainment.

Yet, unless one is a talking head in the punditry, in the swamp, free political advice is rare. It is not only because free advice is as good as what you pay for it—nada. It is because political consultants build mansions for providing incrementally better advice to well-heeled candidates and causes. The good news for the pros? The same as it is for pundits: the absence of accountability and the biennial cycle of well-heeled campaigns and candidates, often possessed of more ambition than brains.

This is a major reason why the swamp’s insular political class despises Donald J. Trump. He is his own political consultant, and he has proven adept at identifying an issue, defining an opponent, and messaging with a unique resonance among the electorate—sometimes for the better, sometimes not.

In the 2024 election, it seems Mr. Trump’s political instincts and skills have been matched by an exceedingly competent campaign team that complements the candidate’s strengths rather than trying to mute them.

In brutal honesty, the political consultants working on Mr. Trump’s campaign are acutely aware of the derision and worse they can expect from their professional peer group that loathes their candidate. Yet, this is a key reason why they understand their candidate and, more importantly, his supporters—namely, because they can relate to the swamp being their opponent. Armed with this experience and the insights it brings, by working with—not against—their candidate, the Trump team has helped position Mr. Trump on the precipice of victory.

Thus, given the 2024 electoral track record to date, one is chary about offering Mr. Trump and his capable campaign team political advice—especially free advice. But in my defense, I am a recovering politician; I am not a consultant, pundit, or—eek!—a lobbyist. (I believe in an afterlife with divine punishment for earthly transgressions, and, having served in Congress, I’ve already accrued enough debits on my ledger.)

More importantly, it is not my free advice I am offering. It is the free advice of two individuals who, like the Trump campaign team, are those rarest of creatures: professional consultants who support Mr. Trump. To protect their anonymity and saddle me with the blame if they are misguided, let’s call them “Frank” and “Ernest.”

So, what free, constructive suggestions do they offer the Trump team in the chaotic closing days of the campaign? Both agree that Mr. Trump needs to “close the deal” with a positive message.

As most past campaigns have closed with an “October Surprise” to torpedo an opponent at the last possible moment, this sounds like awful advice. And, as admitted, it is free. But this is a unique election and Mr. Trump is a unique candidate. In fact, this election is setting the political paradigm for future presidential—indeed, all elections—for the foreseeable future. One obvious change is how voting is occurring earlier and campaign messaging is necessarily following suit. Thus, the idea of an “October Surprise” is antiquated. Better to shovel the dirt on your opponent sooner, not later. If you don’t, you’ll lose mail-in votes.

Equally, 2024 has its own unique characteristic: it is a referendum on Mr. Trump. It is he who is driving the bases of both major parties to the polls. Over the years, most MAGA and populist Republicans have lionized him. The Democrats have demonized him, spending tens of millions of private and taxpayer dollars, wearing out media cameras and keyboards, and injecting partisanship into our justice system to destroy Mr. Trump and, yes, his supporters. Having been a last-minute replacement for the deeply unpopular President Biden, Vice President Harris is irrelevant to her own campaign, being little more than a human avatar for the Administrative State.

Consequently, as Mr. Trump is the issue and, further, undecided voters are examining and factoring into their vote both his policies and his person, it stands to reason that any surprise this October will be a positive address by Mr. Trump to close his campaign.

As “Frank” stated his case to me, “No gimmicks, no nicknames, no Smash Mouth. Just sober, serious leadership.” He elaborated how Mr. Trump “should make one non-Trumpian address to the nation. Explain his hope for the future and his belief that no matter how bad things are now, no matter how divided we are, we can fix it together if we just adhere to our founding principles and the spirit of liberty that has sustained us as a unique culture and made us the greatest nation in the history of the world.”

His friend and colleague, Ernest, agreed: “The ‘close’ needs to be positive and optimistic, which [Mr. Trump] can do.” Ernest went further, suggesting some possible passages for such an address:

“Despite everything the other side has done to hinder me, to harm your futures, I still believe in America and what you and I can accomplish together.”

“We will meet our challenges. Our weak economy, our insecure borders, the threats from those who wish to see America diminished … both here at home and abroad, the division and doubts about the strength of our nation. We will meet them all and overcome them.”

There it is. Free advice submitted for your consideration and that of Mr. Trump and his team.

Ms. Harris and Democrats believe America is a systemically and fatally flawed nation that must be fundamentally transformed. They peddle paranoia and dependence to implement a radical, extreme, and dangerous leftist agenda that claims our salvation resides in socialistic government handouts and divisive identity politics. It is a call to retreat from sovereignty and self-government and return to serfdom under the rule of the Administrative State, which will offer rewards and punishments upon a person’s obedience to the arbitrary and capricious diktats of its secular religion. Bluntly, it is an insult to free people.

Mr. Trump and his supporters know this. They recognize that we Americans remain a practical, optimistic, and aspirational people. We know our rights come from God, not the government. We remain proud of our role in this free republic’s revolutionary experiment in self-government and of inspiring the world with what a free people can achieve.

Say it, Mr. Trump, and seal the deal.

***

An American Greatness contributor, the Hon. Thaddeus G. McCotter (M.C., Ret.) served Michigan’s 11th Congressional district from 2003-2012, and served as Chair of the Republican House Policy Committee. Not a lobbyist, he is a frequent public speaker and moderator for public policy seminars; and a Monday co-host of the “John Batchelor Radio Show,” among sundry media appearances.

Thaddeus G. McCotter

Source: https://amgreatness.com/2024/10/26/the-new-october-surprise-a-positive-appeal-by-trump/

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2 major Dem propaganda outlets refrain from endorsing Harris - Rajan Laad

by Rajan Laad

Why would two reliable Democrat house organs withhold this widely expected form of support for their preferred candidate?

A few days ago, the Los Angeles Times proprietor, Patrick Soon-Shiong, prevented the paper’s editorial board from endorsing Kamala Harris for president.

Since 2008, the paper exclusively endorsed Democrat presidential nominees. The paper has endorsed presidential nominees since its founding in 1881, pausing from endorsements only between 1976 and 2004.

Also recently, the WaPo refused to endorse Harris. The editorial page editor, David Shipley, told coworkers he “owns” the decision. However, other sources claim that the WaPo’s owner, Jeff Bezos, blocked the endorsement.

“We are returning to our roots of not endorsing presidential candidates,” WaPo’s CEO Will Lewis wrote in his column. It is the first time since 1988 that the WaPo isn’t making an endorsement in a presidential race.

It has to be remembered that both papers are Democrat propaganda outfits. Both papers are of the Democrats, by the Democrats, and for the Democrats. Both papers have content that is obsequiously pro–Kamala Harris and viciously anti-Trump.

Yet both stopped short of going the distance and endorsing their preferred candidate.

So what does one make of this?

Rush Limbaugh used to say that polling outfits spend the months before the election attempting to shape public opinion about the race.

To know how things are really playing out, Limbaugh said, it is wise to wait until weeks before the election. In this situation, the outfits in question have no choice but to reflect the truth or at least be close to the truth.

Months ago, they claimed that Kamala was leading Trump by a significant margin. Currently, they may not admit that Trump is leading in the polls, but they will claim that the race is close. This insulates them from being discredited if Trump wins.

Something similar appears to happening with the non-endorsements in the news outfits.

However, there was outrage among staffers following this announcement.

The WaPo purportedly had a tense staff meeting to discuss the non-endorsement of Harris

Both papers had resignations from prominent members in protest.

Washington Post editor at large Robert Kagan resigned from the Post, while others expressed outrage.

Mariel Garza, a member of the L.A. Times editorial board, resigned from the paper and spoke to the Columbia Journalism Review lamenting the paper’s deviation from blatant partisanship.

Both the L.A. Times and the WaPo seem to be losing subscribers. Darth Vader Junior is among the deserting snowflakes. Yoda was right when he remarked about Vader Junior "Much to learn, you still have.”

I canceled our subscription to the LA Times because I want to make it clear that I am not okay with them being silent. In dangerous times, honest people need to stand up. This is the only way to show I’m standing up.- mh#ThankYouMarielGarza 🙏 https://t.co/4qV3aULbx7
— Mark Hamill (@MarkHamill) October 24, 2024

The news had been spun to suit the Democrat narrative of these non-endorsements as proof that Trump will be a dictator. The implication is that the proprietors have many other business interests in the U.S., and the news organizations fear retribution from Trump if he wins.

Former WaPo executive editor Martin Baron also implied that Bezos is capitulating to Trump out of fear and that democracy has become a casualty.

If this was the case, both papers wouldn’t have endorsed Democrat candidates in 2015 and 2020. They also wouldn’t have exclusively carried anti-Trump propaganda as they have been doing since Trump entered politics in 2015.

Why is there such a stark contrast between the owners and the staff members?

It appears that the owners care for the reputation of the paper. They do not want to be proven blatantly wrong and, in the process, look ridiculous, and be subjected to mockery on social media. The owners are astute businessmen. They know that their decision will irk and drive away subscribers, which will cause financial loss, but they still acted. They also know that the Democrats accuse Trump of what they are guilty of — i.e., targeting their political opponents. They know that if Harris wins, there will be consequences. Yet they held back from endorsement.

The newspaper’s staff members, on the other hand, are unrepentant propagandists who do not care about their reputation and would rather go down peddling propaganda. They’d rather promote blatant falsehoods, retain their subscribers, and reap handsome profits. They do not care about the mockery they will potentially receive beyond their liberal bubble. They’d rather interpret a possible Harris loss as proof of racism and sexism in America and never initiate any remedial measures.

To lose two endorsements from major Democrat propaganda outfits further suggests that the tide is turning.

It seems obvious that Kamala Harris is in deep trouble.

<p><em>Image: Gage Skidmore via <a data-cke-saved-href=

Image: Gage Skidmore via Flickr, CC BY-SA 2.0.

Rajan Laad

Source: https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2024/10/2_major_dem_propaganda_outlets_refrain_from_endorsing_harris.html

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Thursday, October 24, 2024

Will Israel assassinate Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei? - Salem Alketbi

by Salem Alketbi

The idea of assassinating the supreme leader may recede slightly in favor of more vital targets. These could include Iran’s nuclear and missile program facilities.

IRAN’S SUPREME Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei leads Friday prayers and a memorial ceremony for late Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, in Tehran, earlier this month.

(photo credit: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/West Asia News Agency/Reuters)

The image of Israeli assassination targets recently shown on Israel’s Channel 14 and picked up by the BBC featured several figures allegedly wanted by Israel but did not include the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Those listed included Iraqi Shi’ite cleric Ali Al Sistani, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar (killed by the IDF last week), Hezbollah Deputy Secretary-General Naim Qassem, Yemeni Houthi leader Abdul-Malik Al Houthi, and Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani.

However, recent strikes and intelligence breaches targeting Iranian security institutions and their affiliated proxies, particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon, make the scenario of assassinating Khamenei highly plausible.

This possibility is compelling Iranian security agencies to exercise extreme caution. The situation is especially critical given the collapse of the tacitly agreed-upon rules of engagement and conflict boundaries between Iran and Israel.

Several factors place Khamenei within the scope of potential Israeli targets, even if his name was absent from the publicized “assassination list.”

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei gestures before he votes during parliamentary elections in Tehran, Iran, March 1, 2024. (credit: Majid Asgaripour/WANA/via Reuters)

Indeed, this very omission could be considered an indicator of purposeful misdirection and deception. Such tactics are highly likely in these circumstances.

A list that included Sistani

FIRST, THE list was not limited to military leaders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Iranian proxies. It also included Sistani, a Shi’ite religious authority of stature.

This is noteworthy because Sistani does not carry the same weight as Khamenei in managing the conflict with Israel.

He also lacks the authority to direct Iran-aligned proxies to participate in the so-called “axis of resistance.” While Sistani’s political and ideological views are akin to those of Khamenei, he lacks authority over the militant Iraqi Shi’ite organizations.

These groups receive orders directly from the IRGC. It can be said that Sistani’s relationship with these groups is limited to the spiritual aspect, particularly in terms of Shi’ite unity from Iran to Lebanon and beyond.

Sistani’s statements about the ongoing conflict between Hezbollah and Israel in Lebanon follow the Iranian political line; however, they focus on providing aid and emphasizing the necessity of helping the Lebanese face this crisis.

He also issued an emotionally charged statement mourning Hassan Nasrallah, describing him as the “great martyr.” His sons held a three-day mourning period for Nasrallah in Najaf and Karbala, the two holiest cities in Iraq for Shi’ites.

Sistani strongly endorses the “support” operations carried out by Iranian-backed proxies against Israel which contributes in great measure to the alignment of pro-Iran Shi’ite organizations and their execution of missile strikes against Israel.

Here, we can point to Sistani’s role in mobilizing Iraqi Shi’ite power during the confrontation with ISIS by issuing his famous Sufficiency Jihad fatwa in 2016 and rallying all factions under the banner of what is known as Iraq’s Shi’ite Popular Mobilization Forces.

However, Sistani does not appear directly in the conflictual relationship between Iran and Israel. This conflict involves dimensions that go beyond religious issues and include struggles for hegemony and strategic influence amid the increasing clash between the Iranian expansionist project and Israel’s desire to ensure its security and stability.

With Sistani capable of mobilizing most, though not all of the Iraqi Shi’ite front, it stands to reason that Israel might be considering adding Khamenei himself to the assassination list.

The political and security costs would involve only slight differences in both cases. Both are major Shi’ite leaders, and the expected Shi’ite anger in the event of the assassination of either would be comparable.

It might even be greater in Sistani’s case, given the factor of power struggle within the circle close to the Iranian supreme leader.

Khamenei enters the circle of Israel's potential targets

SECOND, THE current geopolitical climate – which Israel considers unique – pushes Khamenei into the circle of potential Israeli targets.

This is true in terms of the successive victories Israel is achieving in weakening Iran’s power and its regional proxies; it is also applicable to the current international and regional support for Israeli military operations to neutralize the Iranian threat.

It is evident that the succession and escalation of Israeli assassination operations against prominent Iranian leaders or Iran loyalists has not resulted in any significant cost to Israel; the reaction of the Islamic Republic did not exceed verbal threats and the firing of antiquated missiles – which were intercepted by Israel and its allies – to satisfy the psychological needs of the pro-Iranian public.

These minimal consequences will encourage Israel to target Iran’s top leaders, including Khamenei himself.

It turns out Israel’s successive and escalating assassinations of prominent Iranian or pro-Iranian leaders have not, as of now, resulted in a cost that would compel the Israeli security establishment to discontinue of these bold operations, even if they hit the head of the Iranian regime.

What are the strategic assessments?

THIRD, THERE are strategic assessments that view the scenario of targeting Khamenei as potentially the least costly and most impactful.

This scenario would have implications for disrupting the calculations of Iranian regime leaders and igniting conflict within the narrow circle of power. It could also create the conditions to spark popular unrest among those already primed to challenge the regime.

This is being fueled by deteriorating economic and security conditions and the country’s preoccupation with ongoing external confrontations and conflicts.

The scenario of the assassination of Khamenei has become a genuine Iranian concern. It is no longer dismissed by the security apparatus there, especially after the series of targeted attacks by Israel against Nasrallah – and reportedly against Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. Doubts and unanswered questions surrounding the death of Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi, when his helicopter crashed in May, have also contributed to this concern.

This explains reports confirming the rush to move the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader to a secure location after receiving news of Nasrallah’s assassination.

The depth of Israeli intelligence penetration of IRGC security agencies and its proxies has become apparent. This makes the possibility of reaching the head of the Iranian power hierarchy a real concern for many, especially for the leaders of the IRGC.

The decisive factor in all of the above hinges on the assessment by Israeli decision-makers of the cost-benefit analysis being conducted during this period, which aims to maximize Israel’s strategic gains from the turbulent regional scene.

In my opinion, the idea of assassinating the supreme leader may recede slightly in favor of more vital targets. These could include Iran’s nuclear and missile program facilities.

This depends on Israel’s operational capability to carry out an effective strike against these facilities without the risk of facing a second strike. It also depends on the IRGC’s capability to retaliate against the potential Israeli attack. In this case, the scenario seems open to all possibilities, including all-out war.

Subjecting Iranian nuclear and missile capabilities to a failed or limited-impact strike could compel the IRGC to use all available offensive capabilities against Israel. They might do so without restraint or political calculations.

Salem Alketbi is a UAE political analyst and former Federal National Council candidate.

Source: https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-825719

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