On the face of things, and judging from the
newspaper headlines, it appears very clear that the main diplomatic
focus is currently on the regional conflict underway in Syria.
But behind the scenes, without any newspaper
headlines, the Israeli-Palestinian issue is also refusing to die down.
There are indications of this all the time: After Israel's new
government took office in March, U.S. President Barack Obama visited
Israel and gave an important speech on the topic of Israeli-Palestinian
peace negotiations, while Tony Blair, the Quartet's special envoy to the
Middle East, has been a constant presence in the background.
On top of that, newly appointed U.S. Secretary
of State John Kerry has assumed responsibility over American efforts to
renew peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians. Ever since
assuming the role, Kerry hasn't stopped working at it: He initiated a
meeting with Arab League representatives who revived the 2002 Arab peace
initiative with non-binding alterations to the 1967 borders; he
encouraged Jordan's King Abdullah to become involved in the process; add
to that the meeting in Jordan with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas
and Israeli President Shimon Peres and the regular meetings on the issue
between Israeli chief negotiator Tzipi Livni and the prime minister's
negotiations representative attorney Yitzhak Molcho.
Kerry, Livni and Molcho have already held a
long string of meetings. One of these meetings was in Rome, another was
in Amman, and there were others in Jerusalem and in Washington. The
meetings were held far from the camera lenses.
Livni claims that there is no specific
American proposal on the table -- one that she would have to study and
provide a "yes" or "no" answer to. But she insists that there is
positive momentum and she is mainly pleased that the process is no
longer frozen, and that there is a process at all. The main question is,
in the event that talks break down again, will the U.S. issue a
document outlining its own criteria for a permanent peace agreement?
A week ago, Kerry summed up his meeting with
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by saying that the time had come for
the leaders of the region to make some decisions, and that in two or
three weeks' time, a decision has to be made on how to channel all the
efforts that have been invested so far.
Generally speaking, after 20 years of peace
negotiations, involving every Israeli government, it seems that both
sides' expectations are very clear. The central question is, will Abbas
take the necessary steps to achieve the much-desired agreement? For many
experts on the Israeli side, the answer to that question is very
obvious: It will never happen.
Jerusalem will remain unified
The current situation is that Abbas is setting
preconditions before agreeing to return to the negotiating table. He
defines his demands as "guarantees to ensure the negotiations' success"
but in practice he is trying to gain victories that no one has any
intention of giving him.
Abbas' list of demands includes a request that
Israel present a map with the permanent borders of the future
Palestinian state, release all terrorists jailed in Israel before the
Oslo Accords (these are people who have spent more than two decades in
prison because they were convicted of particularly grievous crimes), and
an immediate moratorium on construction beyond the Green Line,
including in Jerusalem.
For his part, Netanyahu has made it abundantly
clear to both Obama and Kerry that he is willing to sign a historic
peace deal. Netanyahu has already declared that he supports the
two-state solution, and that he knows that such a solution will involve
painful concessions. Israel has no preconditions. All the demands will
be raised at the negotiating table, and all the issues will be
discussed. The principles that guide Netanyahu are also rather clear: He
wants a demilitarized Palestinian state, without a foreign army,
between the Jordan River and the sea, in addition to large Israeli
buffer zones. The prime minister has remarked that Israel would not seek
to govern the Palestinians (there would be full Palestinian control
over the West Bank), but that Jerusalem will remain unified, and Israel
will retain full control over settlement blocs in the area enveloping
Jerusalem, Gush Etzion and Ariel.
At the basis of the peace deal that will end
the conflict is an expectation that Palestinian nationalistic
aspirations will be confined to the Palestinian state that will be
established and Israel's Arab citizens will not seek to define their
nationality within the State of Israel. In other words: Palestinian
recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people.
'Why so few?'
Over the weekend, journalist Avi Issacharoff
published the "napkin map" that Abbas drew in 2008 after meeting with
then-Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. What hasn't been said about the
far-reaching concessions that Olmert was willing to make, or about
Abbas' refusal of Olmert's generous offer? Olmert agreed to give the
Palestinians 98 percent of Judea and Samaria and another 6% of the
territory in land swaps for major Israeli settlement blocs in Gush
Etzion, Ariel and Jerusalem.
Olmert -- and this is new information --
agreed to relinquish Israeli sovereignty over the Temple Mount. This was
the issue that allegedly caused the breakdown of talks between PLO
Chairman Yasser Arafat and then-Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak 13
years ago.
But Issacharoff's interview with Olmert
reveals, more than anything else, the dynamics of the interaction.
Olmert had waved Israeli and Palestinian flags at the official prime
minister's residence on Balfour Street; he sent an armored and secure
convoy to accompany Abbas to Jerusalem from the checkpoint in Ramallah;
he offered to propose the establishment of a Palestinian state in the
U.N. and rally support for this initiative, and more.
When Abbas told Olmert how many Palestinian
prisoners he would like Israel to release, Olmert, in all seriousness,
asked, "Why so few? Ask for more." Finally, Olmert told Abbas: Just sign
here, only your initials, and we have a deal that will put us both in
the history books. But Abbas said that he had to "think about it."
Back to 2013. Several days ago, in an open
discussion of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Livni
said that she was taking into account the possibility that a Palestinian
state would be established and then be overtaken by Hamas. She said a
Palestinian state would be a democracy, and there was definitely a
possibility that Hamas would rise to power.
Will that possibility prevent us from signing a
peace agreement? No, says Livni. We are doing what is best for Israel,
while preserving the principles of security for Israel. According to
Livni, Kerry sees eye to eye with Israel on all the security issues.
At the committee meeting, much to the chagrin
of committee chairman Avigdor Lieberman, Livni said that unlike
Lieberman, she believes that there is no room for interim agreements or
temporary borders. The only thing that should be agreed upon is a final
deal where all the issues are worked out. This week, at the World
Economic Forum in Jordan, Abbas agreed with Livni.
Now, all we can do is wait and see whether Kerry's
optimism throughout his visit in the Middle East will bear fruit or end
in disgrace.