by Dr. Michael Barak
News of Omar's death reinforced Islamic State's position in the region, as the group understands it to be an opportunity to double its political power.
Al-Qaida's power has
been steadily waning over the past six months. This decline is due to a
series of targeted killings, carried out by the U.S., of its senior
operatives, such as its leader in Yemen Nasir al-Wuhayshi, as well as
the growing rivalry with the Islamic State group, which has been
challenging al-Qaida and its leader Ayman al-Zawahiri.
The jihadi terrorist
group has found itself in the midst of a leadership crisis following the
recent confirmed death of Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Omar, who since
the 1990s was al-Qaida's longest standing ally.
The Taliban's adamant
struggle against the U.S. occupation of Afghanistan made Omar a
prominent symbol of jihad during his lifetime, and the information about
the exact date and circumstances of his death remains ambiguous. The
Afghan government claims he died in hospital of a serious illness back
in 2013 -- a fact concealed by his supporters for fear it would cause a
rift within Taliban ranks, and undermine the group's efforts to drive
U.S. forces out of Afghanistan.
The loss of a leader of
Omar's caliber may threaten the unity of Taliban ranks in Afghanistan,
as the growing rivalry over key roles in the organization already
indicates, but it also does not bode well for al-Qaida and Zawahiri.
It is a little known
fact that members of al-Qaida branches in the Arabian Peninsula,
Maghreb, Somalia, Syria, and the Indian subcontinent, including Zawahiri
himself, have sworn their allegiance to Omar, hailing him as "amir
al-mu'minin" -- the "leader of the faithful" -- a title reserved for the
leader of the Muslim nation. This honor suggests that his followers
were willing to accept his hegemony over other territories in the Arab
world, as well.
Moreover, Zawahiri and
other senior al-Qaida officials have made Afghanistan their home, and
are under the Taliban's protection. This is why Zawahiri's silence at
this critical time raises questions about his future.
News of Omar's death
reinforced Islamic State's position in the region, as the group
understands it to be an opportunity to double its political power. Prior
to Omar's death Islamic State officials routinely questioned his mental
and physical leadership skills, and their rhetoric illustrated a
two-pronged approach: The desire to expand Islamic State's influence
into Afghanistan and Pakistan, and the desire to position Islamic State
leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi as the only legitimate leader, who all
Muslims bust obey.
In fact, Islamic State
operatives are already responsible for extensive social media chatter
suggesting Zawahiri himself is no longer among the living -- if he were
alive, they argue, he would have commented on the death of his patron by
now.
Islamic State suggests
that Zawahiri's supporters are using the same deception tactics that
have been employed by the Taliban over Omar's demise since 2013, to
conceal the death of al-Qaida's leader. Zawahiri's prolonged silence
only fuels Islamic State's propaganda, and further erodes al-Qaida's
position.
Dr. Michael Barak is a senior research fellow at the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya's Institute for Counter-Terrorism and at Tel Aviv University's Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies.
Dr. Michael Barak
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=13435
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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