by Ehud Eilam
Israel and Arab states, members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, have several reasons why to stop Iran if the latter tries to produce a nuclear weapon. Ehud Eilam offers a vision for a future joint attack
Israel
and Sunni-led Arab states are worried that Iran might produce nuclear
weapon, i.e. "the Bomb". The Iran nuclear agreement of July 14, 2015,
signed between the P5+1 and Iran about the latter’s nuclear program
prevents Israel from attacking Iran. Yet if the latter ignores this
accord, Israel might attack, while the Arab states might assist Israel
in this matter.
Any Israeli strike in Iran, due to the distance from Israel
to Iran, which is more than a thousand kilometers, would be based on
the IAF (Israeli Air Force). The attacking force would rely on F-15I and
F-16I, Israel’s best fighter-bombers, tanker aircraft for air
refueling, command and control planes and unmanned air vehicles. Israeli
Special Forces might participate as well, landing from the air to
gather intelligence before and after the raid. Some Iranian nuclear
sites are heavily fortified. Cracking them would require bunker buster
bombs.
Iran might assimilate the S-300, a sophisticated
antiaircraft missile. The IAF already has been exercising against this
weapon system as it did in a training that took place in Greece in April
2015, where Israeli aircrews, flying F-16, had a chance to check and
improve their tactics against the S-300.
Israel and the Arab states in the Gulf
Sunni-led Arab states in the Gulf (Saudi Arabia, the UAE,
Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman) are members of the GCC (Gulf
Cooperation Council). Those Arab states barely participated in the wars
against Israel.
Instead, they helped Arab states and outfits against
Israel, some more and some less. GCC Members are considered to be
relatively moderate in regard to Israel, since they support the 2002
Arab peace initiative to end the Arab-Israeli conflict.
There is speculation of secret ties between Israel and GCC
Members, mostly regarding Iran. GCC Members are concerned that Iran
might produce the Bomb. Their concern stems not from fear that Iran
might use a nuclear weapon, but from increased Iranian influence.
Israel’s strong anti-Iran stand is shared by Arab states such as Saudi
Arabia. Those common interests create a base for mutual cooperation
against Iran.
Israel and Arab states like GCC Members don’t have to sign
any agreement between them, let alone one which would be announced
publicly, about an alliance against Iran. This pact could be kept
secret and be expressed in several ways, according to the circumstances,
constraints and goals of each of the partners. First, there is the
struggle to prevent Iran from having the nuclear bomb. Then there is the
fight against Iran’s proxies in Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.
Arabs and Israelis fought together in the past against
Arabs such as in Lebanon in 1982 when Arab Christians joined Israel
against the PLO (Palestinian Liberation Organization) or in recent years
in the West Bank where Palestinian security forces collaborate with
their Israeli counterparts against the Hamas. If Arabs and Israelis
could confront Arabs they could do the same against non-Arabs, i.e.
Iranian Persians. In addition, Iran is Muslim, but under Shiite rule,
while GCC Members and Israel are not.
Saudi Arabia has more than 250 advanced aircraft, many of
them F-15, and its air crews gained combat experience in bombing targets
in Iraq and Yemen in 2014-2015. The UAE has about 140 F-16 and Mirage
2000 and it is considered to have the best military in the Gulf.
However, a vast and open cooperation between those Arab militaries and
Israel is very difficult to achieve due to military and mostly political
reasons. At most, GCC Members could assist an Israeli raid in Iran by
allowing Israeli planes to fly over their country and by providing
intelligence about their Iranian neighbor.
Israel destroyed Iraq’s nuclear reactor in 1981. For Iraq
obviously it was a major setback while other Arab states had a good
reason to be pleased. They did not want to see Iraq becomes too
powerful, by holding the Bomb, which could have jeopardized its Arab
neighbors. Even though in the 1980s many Arab states helped Iraq to
fight Iran, this was more because of their fear of Iran and not so much
due to their support of Iraq and its ambitious dictator, Saddam Hussein.
In 1990, two years after the Iran–Iraq showdown ended, Iraq
did not confront Israel but invaded and seized an Arab state, Kuwait.
If Iraq had then the Bomb it would have been much more difficult and
maybe impossible to kick Iraq out of Kuwait.
If Iran has the Bomb it might decide to ignore Israel,
since the latter allegedly has nuclear weapons too, according to
non-Israeli sources. Instead, Iran might go after those who don’t have a
nuclear shield: Arabs, mostly those that are near Iran, i.e. Jordan and
Arab Gulf States.
In the bottom line, Israel and Arab states have several
reasons why to stop Iran if the latter tries to produce a nuclear
weapon.
Ehud Eilam
Source: http://www.israeldefense.co.il/en/content/joint-israeli-arab-attack-iran
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
No comments:
Post a Comment