Shockwaves from Explosion in Bandar Abbas Could Weaken the Regime Itself - Faezeh Alavi

 

by Faezeh Alavi

Shahid Rajaee Port Is a Major Trade Hub, Handling 85 Percent of the Country’s Total Loading and Unloading of Goods

 

A file photo of Bandar Abbas, Iran.                                                                     Shutterstock

As the United States and the Iranian regime meet for the third round of talks in Oman, an explosion rocked Shahid Rajaee Port near Bandar Abbas, Iran, on April 26, 2025. The blast injured more than 500 people and killed at least four, according to regime reports. Considering the level of destruction, these numbers likely will rise. No matter its cause, this explosion will damage the regime itself and could shorten its longevity.

Immediately, the explosion degraded the Islamic Republic’s military. Shahid Rajaee Port is a hub for Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps shipments to proxies like Hezbollah and Houthis. Located near the Strait of Hormuz, the port is strategic and its proximity to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ naval bases makes it even more critical. The blast may have destroyed military supplies. Suspicion already has fallen on external actors. In 2020, for example, an Israeli cyberattack targeted Shahid Rajaee Port’s computer systems and disrupted operations by clogging waterways and roads.

Businesspeople now will question the regime’s reliability and ability to create a stable economic sphere for its loyalists

Apart from damaging the regime’s military capabilities, Shahid Rajaee Port is a major trade hub, handling 85 percent of the country’s total loading and unloading of goods, including electronics, agricultural products, and pharmaceutical raw materials. It contributes significantly to Iran’s gross domestic product. The explosion has left regime-linked traders and businessmen stunned, and disrupted their import-export trade. These businesspeople now will question the regime’s reliability and ability to create a stable economic sphere for its loyalists. Their frustration could weaken the regime’s economic credibility and encourage many in industry to turn against it.

Dissatisfaction with the regime will increase. Many workers suffered injuries and lost belongings. The frustration could be enough to trigger another round of protests calling for regime change. Even if such protests do not erupt, the explosion near Bandar Abbas will reinforce the perception that the regime is unstable, and its end is near. The Islamic Republic leadership is aware of the danger they now face. Regime outlets are instructing citizens to avoid fueling “rumors” that could “allow the enemies to take advantage of this situation.”

Whether accidental or not, the explosion exposes military, economic, and social weaknesses. The coincidence of talks between Iran and the United States on the same day as this explosion adds to the perception that the regime is doomed. One day before the explosion, President Donald Trump said in a Time interview that Israel will not drag the United States into war with Iran, but the United States will lead the charge if negotiators fail to reach a deal. Considering Trump’s ongoing decisions on Iran policy and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s stance on ending threats against Israel, Iranians may sense the chaos in Bandar Abbas is a sign for the people of Iran that the time to push for regime change is now.

Faezeh Alavi is an Iranian artist, analyst, and researcher focusing on foreign and development policy. She is pursuing her Ph.D. at the University of St. Andrews.

Source: https://www.meforum.org/mef-observer/shockwaves-from-explosion-in-bandar-abbas-could-weaken-the-regime-itself

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