War with Iran disrupts Chinese oil supply, strategies in Middle East - Steven Richards

 

​ by Steven Richards

China relied on Iran’s cheap, sanctioned oil and used the country to distract the U.S. from the Pacific. If the U.S. succeeds in its Middle East plans, China may be caught on its back foot.

 

As the U.S. and allies continue strikes on Iran, Chinese leaders watch from Beijing as the leadership of their second major partner this year is being decapitated under a military onslaught. 

When President Donald Trump took office for the second time last year, he faced a more closely aligned “axis” of adversaries that, during the four-year Biden administration, had been clustered closer together around China and Russia. Iran is a central pillar of that axis, supplying war matériel and cheap oil exports in exchange for investments, diplomatic cover, and help avoiding U.S. sanctions.  

But, the U.S. operation targeting Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear programs, regardless of whether it ultimately topples the theocratic regime in Tehran, will likely disrupt China’s interests in the region.

Now, as was the case following President Donald Trump’s intervention to detain Beijing-friendly Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro in January, China is left holding the bag and its regional strategy is teetering on the edge of collapse.  

The conflict threatens China’s arrangements and oil access

China has for years expended both physical and political capital on the Iranian regime, including by supporting its ballistic missile program through dual-use exports, boosting its terrorist proxies to distract the United States, and helping it evade U.S. oil sanctions through shadow fleet operations.

Iran is also a vital component lying at the geographical center of Beijing’s plans to build connections by land and sea to markets in the Middle East and Europe. 

In 2021, Iran and China signed a 25-year deal in which China promised to invest $400 billion in Iran in exchange for continued access to Iran’s oil supplies to fuel its energy-hungry economy. The agreement reflected a “deepening relationship,” according to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. 

“For its part, Iran views China as a critical economic lifeline and diplomatic supporter against pressure from the United States,” the congressional commission wrote in a 2021 report on the relationship. 

China is Iran's "top economic partner"

“China has sustained its status as Iran’s top economic partner despite significantly reducing economic engagement due to its partial compliance with U.S. sanctions. Nevertheless, various circumvention methods have allowed China to continue purchasing Iranian oil in violation of these sanctions,” the commission wrote.  

When the conflict broke out, China relied heavily on Iran’s crude oil exports. Data show that China bought more than 80% of Iran’s shipped oil in 2025, even under the U.S. sanctions regime. It imported about 1.38 million barrels per day on average last year, representing 13.4% of its total oil imports by sea, Reuters reported last month. Because China is one of Iran’s only customers, it often sold the oil at below-market prices, a boon for Beijing.  

Just the News reported on Tuesday that though China will likely be able to find alternative sources for crude oil imports, it will be forced to do so at market prices. Market watchers report that the conflict in the Middle East could bring increases to oil prices that reach more than $100 a barrel.  

The conflict in the Arabian Gulf also will impact China’s Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) supply. Qatar, a Gulf monarchy from whom China imports about 14% of its LNG supply, announced on Wednesday that it was suspending its production and said it would not be able to return to normal levels for at least a month. 

Highlighting its vulnerability, China reportedly pressed early in the conflict for Iran to keep the Strait of Hormuz open so as not to jeopardize its imports of LNG from Qatar. 

A distraction for the United States

The conflict also has the potential to disrupt China’s apparent ambitions to prop up the Iranian regime as a distraction for the United States, which for more than a decade has attempted to pivot its forces to the Pacific to deter China but instead has ended up diverted by Middle East instability. 

To this end, Iran integrated Chinese technology into its telecommunications network, expanded cooperation with Chinese companies at the forefront of domestic surveillance technologies, and developed a state-controlled internet network that mirrors China’s Great Firewall. 

“Beijing is providing the Islamic Republic with the tools to survive its own population’s rejection. Why? Because a dependent Iran is a useful Iran,” Zineb Riboua, Research Fellow at the Hudson Institute specializing in the Middle East, wrote earlier this week. She said that China values Iran’s ability, through its proxies and directly, to draw U.S. attention away from its own backyard. 

To this end, Beijing has propped up Iran militarily. China was a major arms supplier for Iran in the 1980s, but sales decreased as Iran faced mounting international sanctions over its nuclear program. 

However, companies based in China have made available components vital for Iran’s ballistic missile program in recent years. Last April, the U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned six entities and six individuals based in China for their assistance in procuring sodium perchlorate and dioctyl sebacate, the building blocks of ballistic missile components.  

China and Iran have also reportedly held discussions about the transfer of supersonic anti-ship missiles that could pose a deadly threat to any U.S. naval vessel in proximity to Iran. Just days before President Trump ordered U.S. strikes against Iran, Reuters reported that Iran and China were close to finalizing a deal amid the U.S. buildup.

Chinese facilitated weapons transfers to the Houthis in exchange for safe passage

China’s support for the Houthis in Yemen, the Iranian proxy terrorist group that was responsible for the most effective attacks against Red Sea shipping lanes that began in 2023, is emblematic of the efforts to distract the U.S.  

Israeli media reported last year that the Chinese facilitated weapons transfers to the Houthis in exchange for safe passage for their ships. The U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control later confirmed that a senior Houthi official had been in regular contact with the Russian and Chinese governments to ensure none of the group's strikes targeted their vessels.

In April 2025, the Treasury Department sanctioned a China-based satellite technology company for providing satellite imagery to the Houthis that enabled strikes on U.S. naval vessels that were operating in the Red Sea. There are indications that the Houthis plan to resume such attacks on international shipping in retaliation for the U.S. strikes against Iran. 

Hudson Institute: “The U.S. cannot fight a two-theater war.” 

When the Houthis first attacked shipping in 2023, it precipitated a 90% decline in shipping traffic through the Red Sea resulting in $1 trillion of trade disruptions. Though the costs fell on countries globally, the United States expended the most military resources to reopen the strategic waterway, employing an estimated one-quarter of its vital missile interceptor stocks. 

The key to keeping the U.S. bogged down in the Middle East, Hudson’s Riboua said, is that “the U.S. cannot fight a two-theater war.” 

She explained, “A Middle East that demands permanent crisis management bleeds the American military of the ships, aircraft, and munitions it needs for Pacific deterrence. By contrast, a Middle East restructured toward stability, where Iran’s proxy architecture has been degraded, and Gulf partners are aligned, can be managed with a lighter footprint, freeing decisive combat power for the Pacific theater.” 

Steven Richards

Source: https://justthenews.com/government/security/trump-war-iran-disrupts-chinese-oil-supply-strategy-middle-east

Follow Middle East and Terrorism on Twitter

Iran's New Proxy: Sudan - Robert Williams

 

​ by Robert Williams

The speech captured in the video echoes themes familiar across Iran's regional network: hostility toward Israel, denunciations of the United States and appeals framed in Islamist ideological terms.

 

• The video reveals something far more troubling: the survival of Iran's ideological and proxy doctrine inside elements aligned with Sudan's armed forces.

• Sudan's war, unfortunately, is no longer simply a domestic struggle for power. The war instead has increasingly been intersecting with a broader geopolitical contest stretching from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea.

• The speech captured in the video echoes themes familiar across Iran's regional network: hostility toward Israel, denunciations of the United States and appeals framed in Islamist ideological terms.

• These narratives are central to what Iran calls the "Axis of Resistance" — a loose network of movements and militias aligned with Tehran's geopolitical ambitions.

• Tehran's most enduring weapon has never been its army. It has been its doctrine.

• Sudan's civil war may now be giving that doctrine a dangerous new battlefield.

The video reveals something far more troubling: the survival of Iran's ideological and proxy doctrine inside elements aligned with Sudan's armed forces.

An exclusive video circulating among intelligence sources shows a Sudanese army officer addressing a crowd during the country's ongoing civil war. In the speech, he openly threatens Israel and expresses solidarity with Iran against the United States and its allies.

At first glance, such rhetoric might appear to be the product of wartime propaganda. It is not.

The video reveals something far more troubling: the survival of Iran's ideological and proxy doctrine inside elements aligned with Sudan's armed forces. Even as Iran faces economic strain and growing regional pressure, the strategic model it developed over decades — cultivating ideological allies and proxy networks — continues to spread.

Sudan's civil war may now be providing fertile ground for its revival.

A Civil War Becoming a Geopolitical Arena

The conflict that erupted in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has devastated Sudan.

Sudan's war is no longer simply a domestic struggle for power. The war instead has increasingly been intersecting with a broader geopolitical contest stretching from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea.

As the war dragged on, Sudan's military leadership sought external partners capable of providing weapons and strategic support. Iran emerged as one of those partners.

In 2023, after years of estrangement, Sudan restored diplomatic relations with Iran. Since then, reports have indicated that Iranian drones and other military technologies have been supplied to Sudan's armed forces to help them regain battlefield momentum. For Iran, Sudan represents far more than a wartime client.

Sudan occupies critical strategic positions in the Middle East–Africa security architecture. Its coastline stretches along the Red Sea — one of the most vital maritime corridors in the world. Nearly 12% of global trade moves through these waters. Influence along this route would give Iran leverage far beyond Sudan itself.

The Ideological Dimension

The most revealing aspect of the emerging Sudan–Iran relationship may not be the weapons transfers. It is the ideological rhetoric appearing within factions aligned with Sudan's military coalition .

The speech captured in the video echoes themes familiar across Iran's regional network: hostility toward Israel, denunciations of the United States and appeals framed in Islamist ideological terms.

These narratives are central to what Iran calls the "Axis of Resistance" — a loose network of movements and militias aligned with Tehran's geopolitical ambitions.

From Hezbollah in Lebanon to Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria and the Houthi movement in Yemen, Iran has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to cultivate partners capable of advancing its strategic objectives without large-scale Iranian military deployment.

This model — the creation of ideological allies embedded within fragile states — has proven one of Tehran's most effective instruments of influence. Sudan now risks becoming another node in that network.

Sudan's Historical Role

This possibility is not unprecedented. During the 1990s Sudan served as a hub for Islamist movements and maintained close military cooperation with Iran under the regime of Omar al-Bashir. Iranian weapons, training and logistical networks operated through Sudanese territory during that period.

Although Sudan later distanced itself from Iran in order to rebuild relations with Western and Gulf governments, the institutional and ideological legacy of those years never completely disappeared.

The current civil war is creating conditions that could allow those networks to reemerge.

As the Sudanese Armed Forces search for external support in a prolonged conflict, Iran has an opportunity to rebuild ties with elements inside Sudan's security establishment.

The rhetoric now emerging from figures aligned with the military suggests that this process may already be underway.

The Red Sea Factor

Sudan's importance is magnified by the growing instability across the Red Sea region.

Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen have already demonstrated their ability to threaten international shipping, launching attacks on commercial vessels and disrupting one of the world's most critical trade routes.

These attacks illustrate the broader strategy Iran has pursued across the region: positioning allied actors along strategic chokepoints capable of pressuring global commerce and Western security interests.

If Sudan were to drift further into Iran's strategic orbit, Iran could gain influence on both sides of the Red Sea — through the Houthis in Yemen and potential partners inside Sudan.

Such a development would significantly expand Iran's ability to challenge Western interests along one of the most vital maritime corridors in the world.

A Strategic Warning

Sudan's civil war is often viewed primarily as a humanitarian catastrophe. That tragedy is real and immense. The conflict , however, also carries profound strategic implications.

An Iran-aligned ideological current emerging inside a national army positioned along the Red Sea would represent a major shift in the region's security landscape.

The video, showing a Sudanese officer praising Iran and threatening the United States and Israel, should therefore not be dismissed as mere propaganda.

The video may instead be offering a glimpse into the ideological forces shaping parts of Sudan's military coalition.

Iran's power may rise or fall. Sanctions may weaken its economy. Regional alliances may shift -- but Tehran's most enduring weapon has never been its army.

It has been its doctrine.

Sudan's civil war may now be giving that doctrine a dangerous new battlefield.

Robert Williams is based in the United States.

Source: https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/22320/sudan-iran-video

Follow Middle East and Terrorism on Twitter

US in talks with Kurds about striking Iran - JNS Staff

 

​ by JNS Staff

Militias near the Iran-Iraq border are being considered an ally in internal fighting, according to “Reuters.”

 

Kurdish Peshmerga fighters display their flag. Source: Flickr.

U.S. officials have spoken in recent days with Iranian Kurdish militias on possibly striking regime forces in the country’s ​west, Reuters reported on Wednesday.

An Iranian Kurdish coalition of groups based in Iraqi Kurdistan, in the ‌Iran-Iraq border area, has been training to mount an attack on regime targets as the United States and Israel continue to target regime forces since Saturday, according to the report.

Two sources involved in the talks told the news agency that the goal would be to launch attacks internally by forces opposed to the Islamic regime, which has been weakened by the slaying on Feb. 28 of its leader, 86-year-old Ali Khamenei, and other top officials in the U.S.-Israeli assault.

A final decision has not yet been made on the ​operation and its possible timing, the sources reportedly said. The Kurdish groups have requested U.S. military support. Iraqi leaders in Erbil, Kurdistan, and in Baghdad have also been in touch with the Trump administration in recent days, ​they said.

On Wednesday, Iraqi Kurdish sources denied a report by Fox News that a major Kurdish offensive was already underway with thousands of Iraqi Kurdish rebels inside Iran, Israel Hayom reported. Only several hundred Iranian Kurds have crossed the border into Iran, the sources said.

The forces are in talks with the United States about help from the CIA in providing weapons, two of the sources said.

According to Axios’s reporting this week, U.S. President Donald Trump spoke on the phone with two of Iraqi Kurdistan’s top leaders.

The CIA declined to comment to Reuters’ query on the matter, per the report. The White House and the Pentagon did not immediately respond to a request for comment, it added.

Kurdish forces participated in the U.S.-led Iraq war of 2003 and the battle against ISIS.

A source cited by ​CNN said the plan would be ⁠for Kurdish armed forces to take on Iranian security forces to make it easier for an uprising of unarmed Iranians in the country’s cities.

JNS Staff

Source: https://www.jns.org/report-us-in-talks-with-kurds-about-striking-iran/

Follow Middle East and Terrorism on Twitter

Operation Epic Fury survives Senate challenge as Republicans close ranks behind Trump - Alex Miller, Morgan Phillips

 

​ by Alex Miller, Morgan Phillips

Tim Kaine's war powers resolution fails as Trump admin lobbying convinces fence-sitting Republicans to support continued strikes

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

Senate Republicans closed ranks Wednesday, handing President Donald Trump a win on his use of force in Iran, despite lingering questions about America’s involvement in the Middle East.

The Senate shot down a resolution from Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., aimed at limiting Trump’s military actions in Iran on Wednesday, following days of speculation about whether Republicans would cross the aisle — as they have done before — to reprimand the president.

The administration pushed hard to lobby support for Operation Epic Fury, holding several briefings with Congress to make its case. It appeared to work, at least for now, convincing some Republicans on the fence to back continued military action in Iran.

President Donald Trump confirmed the U.S. launched strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, 2026.  (The White House via X Account/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Only Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., voted in favor of the resolution, while Sen. Jon Fetterman, D-Pa., was the lone Democrat to cross the aisle in support.

Democrats argued that Trump’s actions were another instance of him disregarding Congress’ authority to use military force, that they lacked a clear strategy going forward and, further, that they were yet another campaign promise he had broken.

"It's time for the president to keep promises, not break them," Kaine said ahead of the vote. "That's why I'm so glad that we're going to put everybody on the record … Nobody gets to hide and give the president an easy pass or an end run around the Constitution."

Democrats also seized on the administration’s refusal to rule out sending U.S. troops into Iran.

"They refuse to take off the table the insertion of ground troops," said Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., warning the conflict could expand beyond air and naval operations. "This is going to make the operations in Libya look like child’s play."

FALLEN US SOLDIERS IN OPERATION EPIC FURY REMEMBERED AS PATRIOTIC, DEDICATED

Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., introduced a war powers resolution to rein in President Donald Trump's military action in Iran.  (Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., who previously supported a resolution to rein in Trump’s war powers in Venezuela, said he would oppose the latest effort.

But like last time, he said a ground operation would require congressional approval.

"I’ve always said that committing ground troops would be something I think would require immediate congressional authorization, but that doesn’t appear to be on the immediate horizon," Hawley said.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., argued that the goalposts kept moving for the administration, which he said was a clear sign that "a strategy is missing."

Republicans countered that the president acted within his constitutional authority as commander in chief. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., called the War Powers Act "an unconstitutional shift of authority from the president," arguing Congress retains the ability to restrict funding if it disagrees with military action.

"We don’t need 535 commanders in chief," said Sen. Markwayne Mullin, R-Okla., arguing against the legislation.

There was also fatigue among some in the GOP over Kaine’s repeated efforts to reassert congressional authority in conflicts.

Republicans privately huddled Tuesday to discuss the strikes and the upcoming war powers vote ahead of their briefing with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Gen. Dan "Raizin" Caine and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth.

TRUMP SAYS IRAN’S SUCCESSION BENCH WIPED OUT AS ISRAELI STRIKE HITS LEADERSHIP DELIBERATIONS

Secretary of State Marco Rubio looks on during a meeting with oil and gas executives in the East Room of the White House, Jan. 9, 2026. (Alex Wong/Getty Images)

A source familiar with the closed-door discussion told Fox News Digital that Republicans who may have been swayed were frustrated with Kaine’s repeated use of the Senate floor to push resolutions limiting Trump’s war authorities.

Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso, R-Wyo., noted that it was Kaine’s fifth resolution to rein in Trump’s war powers since he returned to office last year, which accounts for nearly half of all war powers resolutions put forward in U.S. history.

"These resolutions have been used only 11 times in 50 years," Barrasso said. "The senator from Virginia alone accounts for nearly half of them. Yet Senator Kaine introduced zero war powers resolutions when Barack Obama and Joe Biden were president."

Rubio told reporters after a briefing with every senator on Tuesday that the administration had complied with the War Powers Act, though it believes the law is unconstitutional and noted that congressional leaders had been notified ahead of the strikes.

Rubio had previously suggested that the U.S. carried out Operation Epic Fury after it became clear that Israel intended to strike Iran first, a point he later walked back.

"If you tell the President of the United States that if we don't go first, we're going to have more people killed and more people injured, the president is going to go first," Rubio said. "That's what he did. That's what the president will always do."

Meanwhile, U.S. forces have now struck more than 2,000 targets in Iran, largely focusing on taking out the regime’s air defenses and missile capacity. Six U.S. service members have been killed in the operation, as have nearly 50 top Iranian leaders.

The Iranian government claims at least 1,045 people have been killed throughout Iran during the operation.

Alex Miller, Morgan Phillips

Alex Miller is a writer for Fox News Digital covering the U.S. Senate.  

Source: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/operation-epic-fury-survives-senate-challenge-republicans-close-ranks-behind-trump

Follow Middle East and Terrorism on Twitter

Italy to join effort to protect Gulf states against Iran attacks - Eric J. Lyman

 

​ by Eric J. Lyman

Until Thursday, the Italian leader had been largely silent when it came to the U.S.-led conflict against Iran

 

Italy, which in the first days of U.S.-led conflict against Iran, had broken with European allies to remain neutral, now says it will join the U.S., Israel, and others to help provide air defense to Gulf states targeted by Iranian drone attacks. 

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni was conspicuously absent from a joint declaration from European leaders French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and Friedrich Merz, the German chancellor, which called for a halt to military action against Iran and a resumption of peace talks. 

But on Thursday, the Italian leader said Italy would join other countries in helping to provide air defense for Gulf states Iran has targeted, including the United Arab Amirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudia Arabia, Oman, and Bahrain. But Meloni stressed that Italy would not participate in offensive strikes against Iran.  

Eric J. Lyman

Source: https://justthenews.com/world/europe/italy-join-effort-protect-gulf-states-against-iran-attacks

Follow Middle East and Terrorism on Twitter

Tehran compound housing all Iranian security HQs hit - Joshua Marks

 

​ by Joshua Marks

Israeli forces pound Iranian command centers; Jerusalem says Air Force has fired thousands of munitions to degrade the Islamic Republic’s power.

 

Israeli Air Force fighter jets en route to strike targets in Iran. Credit: IDF.

The Israel Defense Forces carried out a large-scale airstrike on an Iranian military compound in eastern Tehran on Wednesday. The compound housed the headquarters of all of the regime’s security organizations, according to the military.

Targeted command centers linked to Iran’s security apparatus included headquarters belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Quds Force, the Basij paramilitary volunteer militia, the Intelligence Directorate, Internal Security forces and the regime’s cyber warfare unit, according to the statement.

According to the IDF, Iranian operatives overseeing operations against Israel and suppressing domestic protests were present at the site. The military said the attack was part of its ongoing effort to “degrade the Iranian terror regime in Tehran.”

Meanwhile, Israeli and U.S. forces continued to jointly attack Iranian targets on Thursday as the IDF announced in the morning that it had begun a “large-scale wave of strikes against infrastructure of the Iranian terror regime across Tehran.”

The IDF later on Thursday said that the Israeli Air Force had completed its 12th wave of strikes across Tehran in the morning, targeting the headquarters of the regime’s special internal security unit in Alborz Province, additional IRGC and Basij targets in the capital, and dozens of command centers and weapons production and storage sites.

At the start of the sixth day of Israel’s “Operation Roaring Lion” and the American “Operation Epic Fury,” the IDF shared footage of strikes on an armed ballistic missile launcher in the Qom area and an aerial defense system in Isfahan, and said that an additional air defense system intended to be used against IAF aircraft was also struck in Isfahan.

The military said the IAF overnight Wednesday “completed an intelligence-based wave of strikes against terror targets belonging to the Iranian terror regime in Tehran,” including underground infrastructure used to store ballistic missiles, storage sites for missiles intended for use against aircraft and several long-range missile launch sites that posed “a real and immediate threat” to Israel.

According to the IDF, an Israeli fighter jet struck a loaded missile launcher and the Iranian regime operatives manning it, thwarting fire against Israeli aircraft, as part of a combined effort “to deepen the degradation of the air defenses and the firepower capabilities of the Iranian terror regime” and to strengthen Israel’s aerial superiority.

As Israeli fighter jets flew above Iran, the regime fired ballistic missiles at Israeli civilian centers several times throughout the night, forcing millions to seek shelter.

However, in a sign that Israeli and American actions since Saturday have reduced the intensity of Iranian missile fire, the IDF Home Front Command announced on Wednesday night that starting at noon on Thursday, “all areas of the country will transition from an essential activity level to a limited activity level.” The new policy will be in effect until at least 8 p.m. on Saturday.

 

Israel’s Home Front Command says it will ease defensive guidelines nationwide starting Thursday at 12:00, shifting from a strict to a limited alert level following a situation assessment.

Under the updated rules, schools will remain closed, gatherings of up to 50 people will be… pic.twitter.com/XofRZtRRr4

— ILRedAlert (@ILRedAlert) March 4, 2026

The IAF on Wednesday completed “wide-scale strikes targeting Iranian terror regime’s targets in western and central Iran.” Targets included dozens of ballistic missile arrays, including missile launchers, some of which were struck while Iranian operatives were preparing launches toward Israeli territory.

Additionally, defense systems deployed in the area were hit.

An Israeli Air Force F-35i “Adir” fighter jet takes off for strikes in Iran. Credit: IDF.

The IDF also said on Wednesday that the IAF had launched more than 5,000 munitions on targets in Iran since the start of the operation, focusing heavily on the Tehran area.

The military said the latest strike dismantled a defense system operated by the Iranian regime and released new missile-perspective footage from the attack.

Joshua Marks

Source: https://www.jns.org/tehran-compound-housing-all-iranian-regime-security-hqs-hit/

Follow Middle East and Terrorism on Twitter

Iranian official behind Trump assassination plot killed as U.S. prosecutes would-be assassin in NYC - Jerry Dunleavy

 

​ by Jerry Dunleavy

An alleged Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) operative is currently on trial in Brooklyn for his role in an assassination plot targeting Donald Trump. The U.S. just announced that the leader of the IRGC unit behind the plot has been killed in an airstrike.

 

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leader who was allegedly behind assassination plots aimed at now-President Donald Trump in 2024 has been killed amidst U.S.-Israeli strikes in Iran, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth announced on Wednesday.

“The leader of the unit who attempted to assassinate President Trump has been hunted down and killed. Iran tried to kill President Trump, and President Trump got the last laugh,” Hegseth said.

Israeli media outlets reported on Wednesday that Rahman Mokadam, described as the head of the IRGC’s special operations division, was the Iranian official who had been killed. The exact name of the IRGC official has not been formally confirmed by the U.S. military.

Federal prosecutors have alleged that two Iranian-linked plots to assassinate then-candidate Donald Trump — both allegedly linked to Iranian intelligence services — were launched in 2024 as Iran sought to meddle in the election to stop Trump’s return to the White House, with one of the trials kicking off last week just days before U.S. and Israeli strikes commenced against the Iranian regime on Saturday.

The Justice Department filed charges against Pakistani national Asif Merchant and against Afghan national Farhad Shakeri for their alleged roles in Iranian-backed assassination plots. The former defendant’s somewhat murky plot seemingly targeted Trump, while the latter defendant’s apparently more sophisticated plot was also aimed at the president.

Shakeri remains at large in Iran. Merchant has pleaded not guilty, and the trial against him began last week shortly before the initiation of Operation Epic Fury on Saturday.

Trump: “They tried twice. Well, I got him first."

The U.S. and the Israelis launched a joint attack early Saturday morning against Tehran, killing Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei and degrading the Iranian military.

Trump said on Sunday night that "I got him before he got me” in reference to the Ayatollah, according to ABC News. “They tried twice. Well, I got him first."

Israeli journalist Amit Segal first tweeted on Wednesday morning that “Israel has eliminated Rahman Mokadam, head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps special operations division, and the man behind the assassination attempt on Trump on the eve of the 2024 presidential election. Trump was informed of this in the past few hours by Israel.”

Hegseth said during his Wednesday press conference alongside Gen. Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, that the IRGC official who had allegedly played a role in the Trump assassination plot had been placed on a target list during Operation Epic Fury, but that killing the IRGC leader had not been a top priority and had not been raised by Trump at all.

“We’ve known for a long time that Iran had intentions of trying to kill President Trump and/or other U.S. officials,” Hegseth said. “And while that was not the focus of the effort by any stretch of the imagination — in fact never was raised by the president or anybody else — I ensured, and others ensured, that those who were responsible for that were eventually part of the target list.”

The war secretary added: “It wasn’t the beginning of the effort — we were focused on missiles and launchers, and that’s the focus — but ultimately, if we had the opportunity to get at those who were trying to get at Americans specifically, we would. And so, we eventually had the opportunity to do that from the air.”

“Iran has even attempted to assassinate the U.S. President”

The Iranian assassination plots are detailed in press releases and court filings by the Justice Department and the FBI and, while prosecutors have not linked the Iranian efforts to the other assassination efforts against Trump at a Butler, Pennsylvania campaign rally in July 2024 and at his Florida golf course in September 2024, the Iran-origin murder-for-hire allegations show the multitude of threats against Trump’s life during the 2024 presidential campaign.

The cases also highlight the lengths to which the Iranian government was seemingly willing to go to attempt to keep Trump out of the Oval Office for a second term.

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) has categorized both Iranian-backed assassination plots against Trump from 2024 as examples of “Notable Attack Planning” by the Iranian regime’s IRGC.

Mike Waltz, the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, had brought up the IRGC assassination ploy during a Saturday emergency meeting of the UN Security Council.

“For 47 years, the Iranian regime has chanted, quote, ‘Death to America.’ At every turn, at every opening of its Parliament, it has sought to eradicate the State of Israel,” Waltz said. “It has waged an unending campaign of bloodshed and mass murder. It is responsible for a series of unprovoked armed attacks targeting the United States and Israel, violations of the UN Charter, and threats to international peace and security across the Middle East.”

The Iranian government also repeatedly sought to meddle in the 2020 election as they attempted to stop Trump’s reelection, and in 2024 they carried out hack-and-leak operations against his campaign and, according to prosecutors, assassination attempts against him personally.

Just the News reported that, last week, Marc Elias, the Clinton campaign lawyer who helped fund British ex-spy Christopher Steele’s discredited dossier pushing baseless claims of Trump-Russia collusion in 2016 joined other Democrats in denying confirmed Iranian election influence efforts in 2020 and 2024 aimed at denigrating Trump, calling it a “Big Lie.”

Jurors are made anonymous in an abundance of caution

The jury in the case against Merchant was selected last week, and the prosecution and defense also gave opening statements that day. After he was arrested, the DOJ had successfully sought to keep Merchant detained pending a trial. Merchant pleaded not guilty in mid-September 2024​​, and has been detained ahead of trial.

Then-U.S. Attorney Breon Peace of the Eastern District of New York (EDNY) had revealed in October 2024 that the DOJ intended to offer into evidence “information obtained or derived from electronic surveillance conducted pursuant to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act.”

U.S. Attorney Joseph Nocella Jr. in January asked the judge to allow the jury that would be selected last week to remain fully anonymous.

“The government respectfully submits this memorandum of law in support of its motion for an anonymous trial jury in this case. Because this case involves terrorism and murder-for-hire charges, and because the defendant admitted to the government [REDACTED], a fair trial requires empaneling an anonymous jury,” Nocella wrote. 

The U.S. attorney said in court filings that “many jurors are aware of the political violence and assassination attempts throughout the world and could fear involving themselves in a case that involves those issues by serving as a juror” and “moreover, there is a legitimate concern that jurors in this trial will fear that an associate of the defendant will target them.”

“And public report [sic] has detailed measures taken by [REDACTED] to retaliate against enemies of the Iranian government, even when they were located in the Eastern District of New York,” the prosecutor added, including a footnote which was redacted.

Nocella also argued that “an anonymous jury is also warranted because of the media attention this case has already generated and the publicity likely to result from trial” and that “major media sources have reported regarding this case.” The footnote the DOJ included there pointed to a Wall Street Journal article titled, “U.S. Charges Man with Ties to Iran With Plot to Assassinate Trump and Other Politicians.”

Defense lawyers wanted jurors subject to public exposure

Merchant’s attorneys — Avraham Moskowitz, Christopher Neff, and Joshua Lax — responded last month that the jury should not be granted the full shield of anonymity.

“The government has not alleged that Mr. Merchant has ever obstructed justice, and it makes no assertions that there is a specific concern of any danger related to Mr. Merchant’s case, relying instead on generalized allegations about the dangers posed by the Iranian government and the IRGC,” the defense lawyers told the court.

Judge Eric Komitee. a Trump appointee who is presiding over the case, ruled in late January that the DOJ’s motion to keep the names, addresses, and workplaces of the jury anonymous — including not being shared with the prosecution or defense — would be granted.

“Several attributes of this case favor anonymity. First, this case arises against a relatively fraught background,” Komitee ruled. “In announcing the charges, the government alleged that Merchant had ‘close ties to Iran’ and that the murder-for-hire scheme was ‘straight out of the Iranian regime’s playbook.’ […] Given the nature of the charges, and the current tensions with Iran, anonymity will serve to protect the judicial process.”

The judge also noted: “This case arises at a time when the United States and Iran are deploying increasingly threatening rhetoric towards one another […] Thus, potential jurors may understandably feel significant fear of violence or retaliation as a result of their participation in the proceedings.”

Trial provides new details about murder plot’s link to the IRGC

“This trial is happening in interesting times,” Komitee told the prosecution and defense this week, according to the Associated Press. The outlet said that “an FBI agent testified Tuesday that Merchant told her he had a Revolutionary Guard ‘handler’ and believed the handler would help bankroll the plan.”

“In court Tuesday, an FBI agent opened a window — though a narrow, constrained one — on the government’s basis for pointing a finger at Tehran,” the outlet said. “It stems from what Merchant allegedly told agents in a July 2024 interview.”

The outlet said FBI agent Jacqueline Smith testified that “Merchant said one of his cousins introduced him to a Revolutionary Guard handler at some point in Iran” and that “Merchant said he expected his handler would reimburse $5,000 that Merchant had gotten from his cousin and had given to the supposed hit men, who actually were undercover FBI agents.”

The New York Daily News similarly reported this week that “Smith told jurors that Merchant admitted his cousin worked for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, also known as the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, and that Merchant had an IRGC handler.”

“The defendant said his IRGC handler, Yousef, told him that if he noticed he was being surveilled, he should act normal,” Smith reportedly told jurors related to a conversation Merchant had with his handler:

Prosecutors and defense teams fight over what evidence can be admitted

Merchant’s lawyers — Moskowitz, Neff, and Lax — over the weekend sought to stop the DOJ from using as evidence information contained within a cell phone that had been provided to the Justice Department by a “foreign law enforcement partner.”

“The Court should preclude evidence of the foreign cellphone because the invocation of the law enforcement privilege deprives the defendant of the ability to challenge the authenticity and reliability of the information on the cellphone and thus, deprives the Court of the information needed to determine the admissibility of the information,” Merchant’s attorneys argued to the judge on Sunday.

The DOJ told the court on Monday that “the government respectfully submits this motion to admit text messages regarding the defendant’s payment of $5,000 to individuals he believed were hitmen for his murder-for-hire plot” and insisted that “the text messages are admissible.”

“In June 2024, after meeting with an undercover law enforcement agent — a person the defendant believed was a hitman — the defendant urgently attempted to obtain $5,000 to pay the hitmen in furtherance of the defendant’s murder plot,” Nocella said in the Monday court filing. “In particular, the defendant contacted his uncle in Pakistan and two of his cousins who lived in Tanzania (Ali Vakil Hyderi and Hasnain Hyderi), and requested they send him the $5,000.”

The prosecutor said that “the government anticipates seeking to introduce two WhatsApp message chains from a device belonging to one of the defendant’s relatives which was obtained by the Federal Bureau of Investigation in Tanzania.”

The DOJ lawyer also told the judge that “the messages also are highly probative of the defendant’s intent to obtain money from overseas in furtherance of his plot.”

Nocella also told the court on Tuesday that “there is absolutely no evidence that the defendant traveled to the United States to hire hitmen to kill politicians out of duress or fear for relatives, as defense counsel claimed at sidebar today.” The U.S. attorney added that Merchant “was in the United States for a prolonged period and did not once avail himself of the opportunity to seek the intervention of the appropriate authorities.”

A decision on admissibility is still pending.

Asif Merchant and the “murder-for-hire” plot targeting Trump

The September 2024 charges brought by the U.S. Attorney’s Office for EDNY alleged Merchant attempted  murder for hire and for attempting to commit an act of terrorism transcending national boundaries connected to the alleged plot against Trump. Trump’s name did not appear in the criminal court filings against Merchant, but multiple law enforcement officials told news outlets that Trump was a target of Merchant’s murder plot.

Then-FBI Director Christopher Wray said in August 2024 that “this dangerous murder-for-hire plot exposed in today’s charges allegedly was orchestrated by a Pakistani national with close ties to Iran and is straight out of the Iranian playbook.”

“For years, the Justice Department has been working aggressively to counter Iran’s brazen and unrelenting efforts to retaliate against American public officials for the killing of Iranian General Soleimani,” then-Attorney General Merrick Garland said.

Prosecutors said Merchant allegedly traveled from Pakistan to Turkey and then to Texas to enlist Americans to help him carry out his assassination scheme. Prosecutors said that Merchant was born in the Pakistani city of Karachi and that “in his travel records to enter the United States, Merchant indicated frequent travel to Iran, Syria, and Iraq.”

Merchant was arrested on July 12, 2024, when he was ready to board a flight out of the United States and was charged on July 14, 2024. The day in between — July 13, 2024 — was the same day that Thomas Crooks attempted to assassinate Trump at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. Crooks shot Trump in the ear and shot and killed Trump rally-goer and firefighter Corey Comperatore before Crooks was himself killed by Secret Service snipers.

Merchant part of “notable attack planning” by the IRGC

The ODNI now lists Merchant’s scheme as an example of “Notable Attack Plotting” by the IRGC, and summarizes the plot thusly: “Asif Merchant, a Pakistani national, is arrested by U.S. law enforcement for plotting to carry out political assassinations after traveling to Iran.”

The ODNI also wrote a November 2024 report with a subsection on “Iranian Plots Against Former U.S. Officials” which were being carried out by the Iranians in an effort to avenge the killing of Soleimani.

“Iranian security services have generally directed plots from Iran using surrogate networks, often including third-country individuals with access to the United States, to try to maintain some level of deniability for their operations,” the ODNI said. “On 6 August [2024], the U.S. Department of Justice unsealed a criminal complaint against Asif Merchant, a Pakistani national with close ties to Iran, for attempting to orchestrate a plot to assassinate U.S. politicians and government officials on U.S. soil.”

The FBI special agent who wrote the criminal complaint against Merchant compared his plot against Trump to the charges brought in August 2022 against an IRGC member who had allegedly plotted to assassinate former Trump national security adviser John Bolton “likely in retaliation for the death of Soleimani.”

Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, released an FBI proffer document in September 2024 containing statements from Merchant which were potentially made in exchange for some sort of leniency from federal prosecutors. 

The FBI proffer document recounted Merchant’s description of an alleged meeting he had at a safe house in Iran with his handler — Mehrdad Yousef. The FBI document described “Merchant’s work for the IRGC” and “Merchant’s IRGC affiliation” and said that “Merchant cooperated with the IRGC because he was interested in intelligence work and wanted money.”

Merchant also said he thought the IRGC would pay $1 million to everyone who participated in the assassination effort, but that he believed he would only receive $50,000 for his role.

The FBI proffer document recounted Merchant’s description of an alleged meeting he had at a safe house in Iran with his purported handler, Mehrdad Yousef. Merchant allegedly said Yousef told him the target could be Trump but then, after a pause, said it could also be then-President Joe Biden or former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley.

"Merchant reiterated that he did not know who the target was, but he interpreted Yousef's pause to mean that Trump could be a target,” the FBI document said. “Merchant understood that the killing was related to Iran's retaliation for the death of Qassam Soleimani." 

"God willing, we are looking to kill Trump"

Roughly two years after IRGC General Qassem Soleimani was killed in a drone strike by the U.S. military on Trump’s orders in early 2020, Khamenei’s official website released a bizarre but threatening animation in January 2022 depicting IRGC forces killing Trump using drones and a robot as the president golfed at his course near Mar-a-Lago.

Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the IRGC aerospace chief who was reportedly killed in an Israeli strike last summer, told Iranian state television in February 2023 that "God willing, we are looking to kill Trump" to avenge Soleimani, saying that Trump, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, former CENTCOM Commander General Frank McKenzie, and the “military commanders who issued the order should be killed.”

Iran International, a Persian-language satellite television station based in London which is often critical of the Iranian regime, also detailed multiple other instances of Iranian officials publicly threatening Trump’s life.

Khamenei proclaimed “harsh revenge” against the U.S. and reportedly issued a threatening tweet where he published an image of Trump on a golf course under the shadow of a drone. The Iranian leader later deleted the post. Then-Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi also reportedly claimed around the second anniversary of Soleimani’s death that “if Trump and Pompeo are not tried in a fair court for the criminal act of assassinating General Soleimani, Muslims will take our martyr's revenge.”

More details on the Merchant plot emerged after his arrest in 2024, even as Iran denied being behind it. The Iranian-backed plot spurred multiple stories about the increased threat levels against Trump.

A spokesperson for the Iranian regime said in mid-July 2024 that “these accusations are unsubstantiated and malicious. From the perspective of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Trump is a criminal who must be prosecuted and punished in a court of law for ordering the assassination of General Soleimani. Iran has chosen the legal path to bring him to justice.”

Trump said on Truth Social in late July 2024 that “if they do ‘assassinate President Trump,’ which is always a possibility, I hope that America obliterates Iran, wipes it off the face of the Earth — If that does not happen, American Leaders will be considered ‘gutless’ cowards!”

“IRGC asset” Farhad Shakeri and another “murder-for-hire” plot against Trump

Another Iranian-backed assassination attempt has also been revealed. The DOJ announced a few days after Trump defeated Vice President Kamala Harris that Farhad Shakeri, an Afghan national and alleged IRGC asset residing in Tehran, had been charged in a murder-for-hire plot against Trump.

Shakeri was charged in the Southern District of New York with murder-for-hire, conspiracy to commit murder-for-hire, and other crimes. The Justice Department stated that “Shakeri is an IRGC asset residing in Tehran, Iran.”

The ODNI also lists Shakeri’s criminal endeavors as an example of “Notable Attack Plotting” by the IRGC and says that “a U.S. indictment reveals that the IRGC plans to use a criminal network to conduct murder-for-hire operations against an Iranian-American dissident, Jewish citizens, and then–Presidential candidate Donald Trump.”

Shakeri, Carlisle Rivera of Brooklyn, and Jonathon Loadholt of Staten Island were also charged in November 2024 “in connection with their alleged involvement in a plot to murder a U.S. citizen of Iranian origin in New York.” The target was easily identifiable as Iranian-American activist and journalist Masih Alinejad. Shakeri remains out of reach for U.S. prosecutors, and is, according to the BBC, in Iran.

Shakeri, Rivera, and Loadholt were all charged with murder-for-hire, conspiracy to commit murder-for-hire, and money laundering conspiracy. Rivera pleaded guilty and was sentenced in January. Loadholt pleaded guilty in January and is slated to be sentenced in April. 

Shakeri also told the FBI that he had been instructed by Iran to plot a mass shooting targeting Israeli tourists in Sri Lanka. He also said he had been tasked with surveilling two Jewish Americans in New York.

“The Justice Department has charged an asset of the Iranian regime who was tasked by the regime to direct a network of criminal associates to further Iran’s assassination plots against its targets, including President-elect Donald Trump,” Garland said when the charges against Shakeri were made public.

Then-U.S. Attorney Damian Williams for the Southern District of New York said that “actors directed by the Government of Iran continue to target our citizens, including President-elect Trump, on U.S. soil and abroad” and that “this has to stop.”

Iran blames "conspiracy orchestrated by Zionists" for assassination plot claims

Iran has repeatedly denied being behind the plots by Merchant and Shakeri. Their denials took on greater importance after Trump’s win in November 2024 meant he would become president again.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said in early November 2024 that Iranian involvement was “completely baseless” and claimed that “repeating such claims at this juncture is a malicious conspiracy orchestrated by Zionist and anti-Iranian circles, aimed at further complicating the issues between the U.S. and Iran.”

Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi claimed at the time that “as a killer does not exist in reality, scriptwriters are brought in to manufacture a third-rate comedy.”

Trump survived Iran’s assassination attempts, and those of anti-Trump activists in the U.S. The IRGC official allegedly behind the plots has now been killed. It now remains to be seen whether the Iranian regime itself will survive Trump’s second term. 

Jerry Dunleavy

Source: https://justthenews.com/government/security/irgc-leader-behind-trump-assassination-plot-killed-us-prosecutes-would-be

Follow Middle East and Terrorism on Twitter

Israel and Somaliland: Size Matters... So Does Location - Lawrence A. Franklin

 

​ by Lawrence A. Franklin

The opposition to the recognition of Somaliland by the African Union may reflect concern that Israel's initiative has set an impertinent international diplomatic precedent.

 

• Israel's initiative in recognizing Somaliland potentially raises the level of threat from the Houthis, an Iranian-supported terrorist militia that occupies most of northern Yemen. Somaliland is located directly across from Yemen. The Houthis, also known as Ansar Allah ("Friends of Allah"), have proven their durability by having survived many US and Israeli airstrikes. If Somaliland allows Israel or the US to construct air and naval facilities on its Red Sea coast, the prevalence of terrorism throughout the Middle East -- including Houthi aggression against oil and gas shipping -- could enjoy a welcome revision.

• The November 2025 visit to Somaliland by US Africa Command head General Dagvin Anderson suggests that Washington is also fed up with Houthi terrorist operations. Possible future joint US-Somaliland military projects could include an upgrade to the Red Sea deep port of Berbera.

• Most of the outrage by international organizations and regional institutions consists of the typical virtue signaling. The opposition to the recognition of Somaliland by the African Union may reflect concern that Israel's initiative has set an impertinent international diplomatic precedent.

• By contrast, some pro-Western African states, such as Ethiopia and Kenya, could actually benefit from increased regional security. Ethiopia, a landlocked northeast African state, might explore the possibility of lobbying the government to construct a canal across Somaliland allow Ethiopia access to Red Sea shipping lanes.

• Currently, Ethiopia, like Israel itself, is surrounded by hostile Islamic countries. In Ethiopia's case, it is bounded by Eritrea and Somalia. By allying with Somaliland, Ethiopia would give its majority Christian people an opportunity to end their cultural isolation.

• Kenya's national sovereignty is also under threat by Islamic terrorist penetration of its national borders, and the country's pro-Western orientation is already highlighted by its participation in US-sponsored counterterrorist operations against Al Shabaab.

If Somaliland allows Israel or the US to construct air and naval facilities on its Red Sea coast, the prevalence of terrorism throughout the Middle East -- including Houthi aggression against oil and gas shipping -- could enjoy a welcome revision. Pictured: People gather to celebrate Israel's recognition of Somaliland's independence in downtown Hargeisa, on December 26, 2025. (Photo by Farhan Aleli / AFP via Getty Images)

Israel's December 2025 diplomatic recognition of Somaliland as an independent state may indicate significant improvements in Middle East security.

Somaliland, which originally seceded from Somalia in 1991, had not been granted diplomatic status by any other member of the United Nations prior to Israel's recognition.

Israel's initiative in recognizing Somaliland potentially raises the level of threat from the Houthis, an Iranian-supported terrorist militia that occupies most of northern Yemen. Somaliland is located directly across from Yemen. The Houthis, also known as Ansar Allah ("Friends of Allah"), have proven their durability by having survived many US and Israeli airstrikes. If Somaliland allows Israel or the US to construct air and naval facilities on its Red Sea coast, the prevalence of terrorism throughout the Middle East -- including Houthi aggression against oil and gas shipping -- could enjoy a welcome revision.

It is certain that any resumption of Houthi drone and missile attacks on Israel will invite punishing retaliatory IDF attacks from any future Somaliland-based launch sites.

The November 2025 visit to Somaliland by US Africa Command head General Dagvin Anderson suggests that Washington is also fed up with Houthi terrorist operations. Possible future joint US-Somaliland military projects could include an upgrade to the Red Sea deep port of Berbera. Anderson also toured the Red Sea port of Boasso in neighboring Somalia's autonomous state of Puntland.

High-level American and Israeli diplomatic and military interests appear to indicate a joint commitment to protect the region, as well as its vital commercial checkpoints, such as the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb, a chokepoint at the mouth of the Red Sea, separating Africa and Asia.

Israel's diplomatic initiative in recognizing Somaliland independence elicited the expected negative criticism. In Somalia, the most offended party, the response has been mostly rhetorical. Somalia has long sought to deny the legitimacy of Somaliland's secession.

Somalia's indignation will most likely not move beyond rhetoric. Somalia is already under threat from the Islamic terrorist network, al-Shabaab.

Most of the outrage by international organizations and regional institutions consists of the typical virtue signaling. The opposition to the recognition of Somaliland by the African Union may reflect concern that Israel's initiative has set an impertinent international diplomatic precedent.

The Israeli initiative is particularly irksome to African countries that are merely colonial constructs of ethnically diverse societies, which may feel threatened by the rise of irredentist violence within their own societies.

By contrast, some pro-Western African states, such as Ethiopia and Kenya, could actually benefit from increased regional security. Ethiopia, a landlocked northeast African state, might explore the possibility of lobbying the government to construct a canal across Somaliland allow Ethiopia access to Red Sea shipping lanes.

Currently, Ethiopia, like Israel itself, is surrounded by hostile Islamic countries. In Ethiopia's case, it is bounded by Eritrea and Somalia. By allying with Somaliland, Ethiopia would give its majority Christian people an opportunity to end their cultural isolation.

Kenya's national sovereignty is also under threat by Islamic terrorist penetration of its national borders, and the country's pro-Western orientation is already highlighted by its participation in US-sponsored counterterrorist operations against Al Shabaab.

Israel's search for regional allies such as Somaliland serves as a hedge against any sudden dissolution of the Abraham Accords, a fate not improbable in the Middle East's mercurial environment. Israel's "small state alliance" model offers it an alternative to its "eternal alliance" with the US, as there may exist instances where Washington and Jerusalem's national interests do not fully coincide.

Dr. Lawrence A. Franklin was the Iran Desk Officer for Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld. He also served on active duty with the U.S. Army and as a Colonel in the Air Force Reserve.

Source: https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/22301/israel-somaliland

Follow Middle East and Terrorism on Twitter