by Isi Leibler
We are fortunate that Netanyahu heads the nation at this crucial time.
A fighter of Syrian Democratic Forces stands amidst the
ruins of buildings near the Clock Square in Raqqa, Syria October 18,
2017..
(photo credit: REUTERS/ERIK DE CASTRO)
Notwithstanding the exuberance of Israelis at the jubilant
70th Independence Day celebrations, justified in light of Israel’s
extraordinary achievements and progress on both the diplomatic and
defense fronts, the Jewish state will be facing major challenges over
the next few months.
Until recently, largely due to the
effective diplomacy of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel was in
an ideal situation, receiving the support of the Trump administration
as well as enjoying a unique relationship with Russia’s President
Vladimir Putin. This despite Putin’s determination to retain influence
in Syria and his wish not to breach his cordial relations with the
Iranians who, for their own reasons, have played a key role in
assisting him to save Syrian President Bashar Assad from oblivion.
However, this has encouraged the Iranians to create military bases in
Syria while shamelessly and repeatedly proclaiming their determination
to wipe Israel off the map, which Israel regards as serious,
potentially existential threats.
Until now, frequent consultations between Israel and Russia have
served to avoid conflict. Israel refrained from engaging in activities
intended to bring about regime change or threaten Russia’s regional
interests. In turn, the Russians did not react to Israel’s repeated
bombing incursions in Syria to neutralize arms shipments to Hezbollah
or prevent the Iranians from advancing toward its northern borders.
Unfortunately, Israel is now finding it extremely difficult to maintain this delicate balance.
Assad’s
employment of chemical weapons against his own citizens has outraged
the international community which, until only recently, had been
passive while hundreds of innocent civilians were butchered weekly by
Assad’s forces.
US President Donald Trump, who to Israel’s
dismay had announced his intention to withdraw all American troops from
Syria, then reversed his decision and succeed in persuading the French
and British to join him in a joint military intervention to punish the
Syrians. It was a strictly limited operation in which four major
installations were destroyed, with minimal casualties because the
Syrians were made aware of the potential targets and evacuated them in
advance. It was not an attempt to achieve regime change. But even this
limited operation contrasted starkly with former US president Barack
Obama’s cowardly failure to follow up previous threats when the Syrians
engaged in chemical warfare.
However, the tension between Israel
and the Iranians has escalated. The Iranians have been employing
Lebanese and Palestinian surrogates to carry out their terrorist
activity and in February, in what was their first direct attack on
Israel, the Iranians dispatched a drone from one of their Syrian air
bases carrying explosives intended to devastate a location in Israel.
It was shot down by an Israeli Apache helicopter.
Israel made it
clear that Iranian bases in Syria were unacceptable and launched a
retaliatory raid, targeting the major T4 air base in central Syria, in
which an Israeli F-16 fighter jet was lost. In a second wave of
strikes, Israel destroyed a significant percentage of Syria’s air
defenses, which also incurred Iranian casualties. Although no Russians
were wounded, the Putin government criticized Israel for this foray.
Following
the Syrian chemical attack on April 9, Israel was alleged to have
destroyed the Iranian control center and killed 14, including seven
Iranians, one of whom headed the drone unit. The Russians protested and
the Iranians swore to retaliate.
Against the backdrop of these
tensions on the Syrian front, early this month Hamas initiated a
campaign in which it enlisted thousands of Gaza residents to breach the
Israeli border. Hamas gunmen and fighters hurling firebombs were
interspersed with the civilian demonstrators. The IDF took defensive
action, using live ammunition where necessary against those using
assault weapons or trying to penetrate the borders. Thousands were
injured and dozens, primarily identifiable Hamas terrorists, were
killed.
Despite photographic documentation of the violence, the
employment of human shields including women and children, and the
repeated statements by Hamas leaders that the objective was to bring
back the refugees and destroy Israel, the UN Security Council sought to
condemn Israel for responding “disproportionately.” The resolution was
vetoed by the US.
The atmosphere throughout the region is
extremely tense and Israel is girding itself for the possibility that
war could erupt at any time on any front.
We are fortunate that
Netanyahu heads the nation at this crucial time. But he is treading on
eggshells as he faces three challenges:
1) Preparing to engage in war, if necessary, to prevent the Iranians from setting up bases in Syria that threaten Israel.
2)
Confronting any attempt by Hamas to breach Gaza’s borders, which will
require tough military responses while seeking to limit casualties –
sought by Hamas to present themselves as victims and encourage
international pressure on Israel to make concessions undermining its
security.
3) Employing his diplomatic talents both to maintain
the alliance with Trump and retain the fragile relationship with Putin,
currently under great strain in light of Russian activity in Syria.
To
deal with these challenges and avoid being dragged into the heightened
conflicts between the Americans and the Russians is an extremely tough
balancing act. Despite Russian reprimands and even warnings that it
intends to provide the Syrians with more sophisticated air defenses, as
of now Israel’s lines of communication with the Kremlin are still
open, albeit tense and fragile. Efforts are being made to retain
maximum coordination, but Netanyahu must exert all his diplomatic skill
to achieve this.
EVEN THOUGH Israel is stronger and more independent than ever, there
are clear storm clouds on the horizon. Keeping 1973 in mind, we should
never allow ourselves to be overconfident.
If the Iranians
respond disproportionately, war could erupt at any time. They may be
waiting to see if the Americans cancel the nuclear deal before
launching a full military confrontation. Likewise, if Hamas intensifies
its efforts, it will lead to an intensified armed escalation. In
either case, Hezbollah is likely to become engaged and Israel would be
obliged to decimate its bases in Lebanon.
This makes Israel’s
alliance with the US critical. So far, the Americans have delivered,
but Trump’s apparent determination to withdraw all American troops from
Syria would be an enormous inducement to the Iranians to confront
Israel.
In this context, we would need to rely on the Russians
to restrain the Iranians and Hezbollah from their openly stated
objective of decimating Israel. Could Netanyahu persuade the hitherto
philo-Semitic Putin not to breach the uniquely good relationship with
Israel and the Jews in the face of Russia’s conflicting interests and
the undermining of his military aspirations in the region?
Clearly
none of the parties at this stage seek an all-out conflict, but it
would only take a few sparks to unleash a regional conflagration.
The
IDF is geared up for such an eventuality and with the Saudis and
moderate Sunnis uninvolved or even possibly supporting Israel, it is
confident it could overcome the combined forces of its potential
enemies.
But the extent of casualties – especially on the home
front – would be heavily influenced by the role that the US and Russia
assumed under such circumstances.
It is here that Netanyahu may
face unprecedented obstacles in directing military conflicts and
engaging simultaneously in diplomacy at the highest levels. Critics and
supporters alike cannot conceive of any other leader at this stage
possessing similar capabilities, experience or the extraordinary
diplomatic skills needed to navigate the delicate balance.
Netanyahu
must be allowed to focus all his energies on the crucial defense of
the nation and not be obliged to spend at least half his time with
defense lawyers and the constant bombardment by politicians and the
media seeking to undermine him and force his resignation.
It is
nothing short of criminal for the establishment to tolerate a situation
whereby, in such critical times, it has created conditions for the
nation to be led by a parttime prime minister who also acts as part-time
foreign minister.
If there is no one who could currently lead
the nation like Netanyahu, his critics should suspend their legal and
political campaigns and at least unite temporarily behind him until the
immediate threats confronting us have been overcome.
The author’s website can be viewed at www.wordfromjerusalem.com. He may be contacted at ileibler@leibler.com.
Isi Leibler
Source: https://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Threatening-regional-storm-clouds-552626
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