 Russia
has threatened war if the United States and its NATO allies fail to
comply — unconditionally — with sweeping demands for a new security
arrangement in Europe. Western analysts are split over interpreting
Russian President Vladimir Putin's motives. Some say he is using the
impossible list of demands as a pretext to invade Ukraine. Others think
he is playing a weak hand to try to divide the West and reorder Europe's
security architecture in Russia's favor. (Photo by Mikhail
Metzel/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images) |
Russia has threatened war if the United States and its NATO allies
fail to comply — unconditionally — with sweeping demands for a new
security arrangement in Europe.
The demands, issued by the Russian Foreign Ministry, require the
United States to remove its nuclear umbrella from Europe and allow
Russia to reestablish its Soviet-era sphere of influence over Eastern
Europe.
The Russian demands, which effectively require NATO to commit
suicide, are so obviously outrageous and unmeetable that Western
analysts are split over interpreting Russian President Vladimir Putin's
motives. Some say he is using the impossible list of demands as a
pretext to invade Ukraine. Others think he is playing a weak hand to try
to divide the West and reorder Europe's security architecture in
Russia's favor.
Nearly all Western analysts agree: Putin is taking advantage of the
weakness of U.S. President Joe Biden, divisions between the United
States and Europe, disagreements within the European Union, and the
fecklessness of the leaders of Europe's largest countries, particularly
France and Germany.
On December 17, the Russian Foreign Ministry published two draft
treaties: one between Russia and the United States, and the other
between Russia and NATO.
Russia's draft "Treaty between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on Security Guarantees" listed more than a dozen demands, including:
- NATO membership must be denied to all states of the former Union
of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), including the Baltic states of
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which have been members of the alliance
since 2004.
- NATO is prohibited from expanding further eastward, including to countries such as Sweden and Finland.
- The United States is prohibited from flying bombers or deploying
warships, including within the framework of NATO, in areas outside of
its national airspace and national territorial waters, respectively.
- The United States is prohibited from deploying its armed forces or
armaments, including within the framework of NATO, in any area where
such deployment could be perceived by Russia as a threat to its national
security.
- The United States must remove all its nuclear weapons from Europe.
- The United States is prohibited from deploying ground-launched
intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles outside of its territory.
Russia's draft "Agreement
on Measures to Ensure the Security of the Russian Federation and Member
States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization" put forward additional demands:
- NATO member states are prohibited from deploying military forces
to any country that became a member of the alliance after May 27, 1997,
when NATO and Russia signed the Founding Act on Mutual Relations.
This includes 14 countries that have become NATO members during the
past 25 years: Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Estonia, Hungary,
Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania,
Slovakia and Slovenia.
- NATO is prohibited from deploying land-based intermediate- and
short-range missiles to anywhere where such missiles can reach Russia.
- NATO is prohibited from any further enlargement, including the accession of Ukraine as well as any other state.
- NATO is prohibited from military cooperation with Ukraine as well as
other states in Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus and in Central Asia.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov declared that both texts are part of a whole and are not to be understood as being "a menu, where you can choose one or the other."
While Russia expects NATO and the United States to comply with its
demands, Moscow, in return, has offered only a vague commitment to "not
create conditions or situations that threaten the national security of
the other parties." The draft treaty imposes no requirements for Moscow
to redeploy Russian forces.
On December 20, Konstantin Gavrilov, a Russian diplomat in Vienna, said that relations between Moscow and NATO had reached a "moment of truth." He added:
"The conversation needs to be serious and everyone in
NATO understands perfectly well despite their strength and power that
concrete political action needs to be taken, otherwise the alternative
is a military-technical and military response from Russia."
On December 23, Putin, during a four-hour press conference, repeated his stance that "any further NATO movement to the east is unacceptable." A few days later, the Kremlin described NATO expansion as "a matter of life and death" for Russia.
On December 26, Russia warned
Finland and Sweden against joining NATO. "It is quite obvious that the
accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO would have serious military and
political consequences that would require an adequate response from
Russia," said Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova.
Russia hopes to obtain new security guarantees during a series of
upcoming meetings with American and European officials. Russian Deputy
Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov and U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy
Sherman are scheduled to lead bilateral security talks in Geneva on January 10.
Russia is set to hold talks with NATO in Brussels on January 12, before a broader meeting
in Vienna on January 13 involving the Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which includes the United States and its
NATO allies, as well as Russia, Ukraine and other former Soviet states.
Meanwhile, Russia has amassed an estimated 100,000 troops on Ukraine's eastern border amid fears of an imminent invasion.
Evaluating Russian Demands
Françoise Thom, a renowned French historian of Russia, wrote that Putin is trying to "bind NATO through the United States, the United States through NATO." She added: "There is nothing to negotiate, you have to accept everything as a whole."
Thom, in a lengthy and incisive analysis of the Russian demands, described them as "an orchestrated blackmail":
"The Russian blackmail is explicit and is directed at
both the Americans and the Europeans. If the West does not accept the
Russian ultimatum, they will have to face 'a military and technical
alternative,' according
to Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko: 'The Europeans must also
think about whether they want to avoid making their continent the scene of a military confrontation. They have a choice. Either they take seriously what is put on the table, or they face a military-technical alternative.'
"After the publication of the draft treaty, the possibility of a
pre-emptive strike against NATO targets (similar to those that Israel
inflicted on Iran), was confirmed
by former Deputy Minister of Defense Andrei Kartapolov (Duma Defense
Committee): 'Our partners must understand that the longer they drag out
the examination of our proposals and the adoption of real measures to
create these guarantees, the greater the likelihood that they will
suffer a pre-emptive strike.'
"To make things clear Russia fired a 'salvo' of Zircon hypersonic
missiles on December 24. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, commented on this event: 'Well, I hope that the notes [of December 17] will be more convincing.' Editorialist Vladimir Mozhegov added:
'What are our arguments? First and foremost, of course, our most
reliable allies — the army and the navy. To be more precise, the
hypersonic Zircon missile (the 'carrier killer,' as it is affectionately
called in the West), which makes it absurd for the United States to
have a fleet of aircraft carriers. The impact of the Zircon cracks a
destroyer like a nut. Several Zircons will inevitably sink an aircraft
carrier. The Zircon simply does its job: it methodically shoots huge,
clumsy aircraft carriers like a gun at cans.'
"An article in the digital newspaper Svpressa eloquently titled 'Putin's ultimatum: Russia ... will bury all of Europe and two-thirds of the United States in 30 minutes'
dots the i's: 'The Kremlin will have to prove its position with deeds.
It is probably only possible to force the 'partners' to sit at the
negotiating table by coercion. Economically, the Russian Federation
cannot compete with the West. There remains war.' Military expert
Konstantin Sivkov believes that 'to bring the United States and NATO to
the negotiating table, some kind of super weapon is needed to...
demonstrate our determination to strike if NATO expands. After that, I
can assure you that they [the West] will be afraid.... It is naive to
rely on diplomatic procedures. [...] Russia's move is a signal that
already radical measures are going to be taken. You refused, so you will have yourselves to blame...'"
Official Responses
White House press secretary Jen Psaki said that the United States would consult with its allies.
Polish Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lukasz Jasina added: "Russia is not a member of NATO and doesn't decide on matters related to NATO."
Ukraine's foreign ministry said
Kyiv had an "exclusive sovereign right" to run its own foreign policy,
and only it and NATO could determine the relationship between them,
including the question of Ukrainian membership.
Finland, an officially neutral country which shares a border with
Russia, underscored its right to seek NATO membership at any time. "Let
it be stated once again," said
Finland's president, Sauli Niinistö. "Finland's room to maneuver and
freedom of choice also include the possibility of military alignment and
of applying for NATO membership, should we ourselves so decide."
Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde added:
"We must have a rules-based world order, where we have
international law and each country has the right to make its own
security policy choices. Rejecting any future expansion of NATO will
reduce the opportunities to make independent political choices."
Germany appears to be the West's weak link the face of Russian
pressure. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz wants to reset relations with
Moscow and is planning a face-to-face meeting with Putin sometime this
January.
On January 3, the German newspaper Bild reported
that Scholz is seeking "a new beginning" in relations with Moscow. This
has alarmed smaller European countries which fear that Germany will
reach an accommodation with Putin behind their backs. In an interview
with Bild, former Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves said:
"Everyone saw [German Foreign Minister] Annalena Baerbock
and hoped that she could shift the German foreign policy focus to human
rights and the observance of basic values. Europe basically hoped that
the new government would mean an end to mercantilism, but then Mr.
Scholz took over the helm. What we see now is unfortunately more of what
we already know and not a good start to his term in office and not a
good sign for European unity."
Select Commentary
Former NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, in an opinion article published by Politico, warned that Putin is seeking Russian control over the security of Central and Eastern Europe:
"Under the new Russian proposals, NATO would have to seek
consent from Moscow to deploy troops in Central and Eastern Europe,
refrain from 'any military activity' across Eastern Europe, the southern
Caucuses and Central Asia, and halt any NATO drills near Russia. The
agreement also demands a written guarantee that Ukraine will not be
offered NATO membership, and a draft treaty with the United States would
ban it from sending warships and aircrafts to 'areas where they can
strike targets on the territory of the other party,' like the Baltics
and the Black Sea.
"This is not a serious proposal from a man who wants peace.
"Putin is skilled at creating crises only to later extinguish them,
like a firefighter trying to douse his own arson attack, and by
threatening to invade Ukraine, he has calculated that the U.S. and other
Western powers might negotiate directly with the Kremlin — potentially
over their Eastern European and Baltic allies — offering concessions and
allowing him to maintain influence over former Soviet countries in
exchange for peace.
"Putin plays a bad hand well — but his tactics will only work if we fold. And it's time for NATO to call Putin's bluff.
"Under no circumstances should the U.S. or NATO give commitments on
future enlargement, real or de facto.... NATO cannot have an open-door
policy on enlargement in which it continues to allow Putin to act as the
doorman.
"NATO cannot negotiate down the barrel of a gun. And if we back down
now, that signal will be heard loud and clear by both the democracies
that rely on us, and the autocrats who lament and fear our freedom."
Rebekah Koffler, a Russian-born U.S. intelligence expert, argued
that the evidence is overwhelming that Russia is about to invade
Ukraine, and that Putin was taking advantage of the weakness of the
United States under President Joe Biden:
"The Russian leader... believes he has a window of
opportunity to act. He is worried that the risk of Kiev joining NATO
will increase if a stronger U.S. leader...comes to power. He also knows
that the Pentagon is only beginning its transition from
counter-terrorism operations onto a new footing focused on major states
such as China and Russia.
"Russian troops are primed to fight in the cold, as they always have
been, and Putin likely believes the West won't wade into the snow to
help Ukraine. Emboldened by his ability to blindside the West, such as
by previously invading Georgia and taking Crimea, and by extorting
concessions from Joe Biden, Putin is positioning to outmaneuver
Washington.
"Regretfully, the Biden administration's 'experts,' like Obama's
before them who fecklessly sought a 'reset' with Russia, are likely to
fall into Putin's trap."
Steven Pifer, a foreign policy expert at the Brookings Institution, wrote
that the substance of the Russian demands, and the way they were
publicized, suggest that Putin is not serious about negotiating with the
West:
"The unacceptable provisions in the two draft agreements,
their quick publication by the Russian government, and the peremptory
terms used by Russian officials to describe Moscow's demands raise
concern that the Kremlin may want rejection. With large forces near
Ukraine, Moscow could then cite that as another pretext for military
action against its neighbor."
Veteran geopolitical analyst Andrew Michta, writing for the inestimable blog 19fourtyfive, argued that Putin is trying to divide NATO, humiliate the West and eject the United States from Europe:
"Judging by the scope of the demands presented by Russia
in the two so-called 'draft treaties' with NATO and the United States,
respectively, Moscow must have no illusions that these would be
accepted, for they would remake Euro-Atlantic security, creating
conditions that would undermine NATO and America's ability to work with
its allies. Putin may have already decided to move militarily, and calls
for the West to negotiate could create a 'maskirovka' [Russian military
deception] and in doing so provide a casus belli for Moscow, which
would try to claim that Washington had refused to consider its terms.
"If the demands to negotiate have a larger aim it is to divide the
alliance. Most importantly, the idea that Russia would need a written
treaty guarantee to forestall Ukraine or Georgia's accession to NATO is
absurd. Putin knows that so long as he occupies Donetsk and Luhansk in
Ukraine and Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia, the countries have no
chance of making it into NATO, for a vote to enlarge the alliance would
mean in effect a vote to go to war with Russia. Moscow's demand that
the effective status quo be confirmed by treaty is thus nothing short of
an attempt to humiliate the West.
"It is critical to consider what might happen should Russia invade
Ukraine, and what might happen if we do not start thinking long-term
about the impact of this crisis. A second Russian attack on Ukraine,
should it happen, ought to serve as a long-overdue wake-up call for the
West about Russia's intentions to establish an exclusive sphere of
influence in Eastern Europe and assert Moscow's claims to exercising
influence in Central Europe, within NATO's perimeter....
"Should the response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine be more of the
same, Europe's security would deteriorate dramatically. The zone of
competition would shift from Eastern Europe to Central Europe and the
Baltic states, where the next round of Putin's demands could be a de
facto 'Finlandization' of the Baltic States and pressure on the United
States and NATO to remove military assets from the intermarium [Central
and Eastern European countries] between the Baltic and the Black Seas,
especially from Poland and Romania. In this scenario Putin would target
Germany as his 'partner of preference,' with the expectation that by
applying its energy weapon Moscow could eventually coax Berlin into a
'neo-Bismarckian' [German dominance of the European Union] accommodation
that would in effect divide Europe into two spheres of influence,
rendering the United States increasingly irrelevant to the overall
strategic balance in Europe."
American foreign policy expert Anne Pierce warned that the United States and Europe are at a "tipping point":
"If they do not move decisively to stop Russia from
taking over Ukraine, they will send a dangerous message to China
vis-a-vis Taiwan, position Russia to coerce more former Soviet satellite
states, and further ruin their international reputation, which is
already in tatters after the betrayal of Afghanistan and failed
diplomatic overtures to Iran. The window is closing to deter Russia from
instigating major war or from conquering Ukraine by intensifying its
current campaign of paramilitary assaults, disinformation, energy
blackmail, and threats backed by escalation.
"It is nearly past time to alter Vladimir Putin's shrewd calculus and
deny Russia crucial geopolitical territory and a defining
anti-democratic victory. The West should immediately impose tough
sanctions on Russia, provide serious defense assistance to Ukraine,
demonstrate unambivalent support for Ukrainian sovereignty, and project
moral and strategic resolve. Unfortunately, current trends and past
behavior provide little cause for optimism that the 'free world' will
rise to the challenge....
"In the face of Russia's alarming advances and brazen disregard for
international norms, Western leaders have hesitated to impose serious
costs. They've issued 'expressions of concern,' agreed to treaties that
give Russia an advantage, failed to enforce those treaties, haltingly
imposed weak sanctions, and generally exhibited inertia that contrasts
with Putin's drive....
"Recent Western responses to Russian aggression resemble the Munich
peace process. In hopes of satisfying Adolf Hitler from wanting more,
the West buried its head in the sand about Hitler's vast ambitions and
escalating atrocities and forced Czechoslovakia into concessions that
facilitated German occupation. History, and the failure of generous
compromise to stop Putin so far, tells us where all this is likely to
lead."
Françoise Thom, the French historian, urged the West to wake up:
"Reading the Western press, one is under the impression
that nothing is happening. Westerners do not seem to understand what is
at stake. They think that only the fate of Ukraine is being decided,
which is of less concern to them than that of Armenia.... They resemble
those who in 1939 believed that Hitler's demands would be limited to
Danzig. However, one only has to look at the texts proposed by Moscow to
understand that the stakes are quite different....
"In a word, Russia is demanding that NATO commit suicide, and that
the United States be reduced to the role of a regional power.... As a
result, Russia will have the upper hand in Europe. The countries of
Western Europe are already taken for granted, with Moscow counting on
the pool of collaborators that it has cultivated for years within the
European ruling elites: it has just sent them a strong signal by
appointing François Fillon [former prime minister of France] as director
of the petrochemical giant Sibur. Deprived of American support, the
'Russophobic' countries that crystallize the resistance to Moscow's
hegemony will only have to bow to the inevitable....
"Westerners must first perceive the situation as it is, however
unpleasant it may be for our democratic states more accustomed to futile
undertakings than to ensuring their preservation. To do this, we must
extricate ourselves from the Russian lie....
"When Moscow talks about 'security' one must understand 'Russian
domination' and 'impunity,' because that is what it is all about. In the
Kremlin's view, everything it does not control can jeopardize the
regime.... What Moscow fears in Ukraine is not a few NATO instructors,
but freedom. It wants a disarmed Ukraine so that it can intimidate the
Kiev rebels and set up a regime hated by its people, thus totally
dependent on the Kremlin....
"If Russia succeeds in driving the United States out of Europe, it
will soon feel threatened by the freedoms of Western European countries,
and under the pretext of ensuring its 'security,' it will display the
same determination in our country [France] as in its own to enslave the
media, to eradicate democratic institutions and independent parties....
"In 1946-7 we knew that freedom was worth dying for, something that
is obviously forgotten today. After Munich in 1938, the West was ashamed
to have abandoned Czechoslovakia into Hitler's clutches. Today we are
cowardly letting down Ukraine, but we do not even realize our dishonor,
nor the danger of giving in to an aggressor. We are like the Byzantines
who were discussing the sex of angels while the Ottoman forces were
destroying the city walls."
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