Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Is Israel winning the war against Hamas?

80% of Gaza Residents Considering Emigrating

by Gil Ronen

Eighty percent of the residents of Gaza find it difficult to cope with the situation there and are considering emigration, a survey by the Gaza-based Institute of Development Studies has found. Gazans are finding it progressively more difficult to deal with the economic situation there, according to the institute, and 44 percent said explicitly that they want to leave Gaza.

Blame Israel
The institute presented the survey as part of a request to the international community to protect Gazans from Israel's wrath and to pressure Israel to enable economic development in Gaza.

The research also shows that since Hamas took over Gaza in June 2007, economic conditions in Gaza have worsened considerably. According to the report this is primarily due to the closure of border crossings into and out of Gaza, including the crossing into Egypt at Rafiah.

The Karni crossing was closed for 107 days and the total number of trucks which crossed into Gaza in 2007 was 8,397. The exports totaled 1,695 trucks.

Hamas Responsible
Saudi newspaper Ukaz, meanwhile, interviewed Dr. Mahmoud al-Hebash, a "minister" in Salam Fayyad's rival Fatah government in Judea and Samaria, who said the Hamas government was responsible for the Gaza crisis.

Hamas is making efforts to grab control of the aid sent to Gaza from "the legitimate government" in Ramallah, al-Hebash explained. He claimed Hamas is giving Israel excuses to continue "the policy of blockade," as he termed it. Al-Hebash called upon the Hamas government to recognize its responsibility for the crisis in Gaza following its military takeover. He accused it of trying to export the crisis to neighboring countries, meaning mostly Egypt. Hamas is making efforts to grab control of the aid sent to Gaza from Ramallah, al-Hebash explained.

Economy 'Significantly Worse'
The findings of a Near East Consulting poll released Tuesday showed that some 94 percent of Gaza residents believe their economic situation under Hamas rule is significantly worse than it was before the terrorist organization took over the region. Hamas ousted the rival Fatah faction in what amounted to a civil war. Now Hamas controls Gaza; Fatah controls the PA areas of Judea and Samaria. In elections before the military coup a majority of the Arabs who live in those areas voted for Hamas.

The survey, which polled 900 Gaza residents, found that 64 percents of respondents live under the poverty line. More than two out of every five, (41 percent) said they would leave Gaza immediately if they could. Half of those polled feel less security since Hamas took over the region in June 2007 and 18 percent feel no change in the level of security. Some 32 percent said they feel more security since Hamas took control of Gaza.

Gil Ronen

Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Subject: Netherlands Parliament Speech on Islamification......

Australians should take note of this Dutch pariamentarian and the wisdom of what he's saying.........



*** Geert Wilder's speech to Holland's Parliament ***
**11 MARCH 2008 **


"Madam Speaker, first, allow me to express my sincere thanks to you personally for having planned a debate on Islam, on the very day of my birthday. I could not have wished for a nicer present!
Madam Speaker, approximately 1400 years ago war was declared on us by an ideology of hate and violence which arose at the time and was proclaimed by a barbarian who called himself the Prophet Mohammed.

I am referring to Islam.

Madam Speaker, let me start with the foundation of the Islamic faith, the Koran. The Koran's core theme is about the duty of all Muslims to fight non-Muslims; an Islamic Mein Kampf, in which fight means war, jihad. The Koran is above all, a book of war, a call to butcher non-Muslims (2:191, 3:141, 4:91, 5:3), to roast them (4:56, 69:30-69:32), and to cause bloodbaths amongst them (47:4). Jews are compared to monkeys and pigs (2:65, 5:60, 7:166), while people who believe in Jesus Christ as the Son of God must according to the Koran be fought (9:30).

Madam Speaker, the West has no problems with Jews or Christians, but it does have problems with Islam. It is still possible, even today, for Muslims to view the Koran, which they regard as valid for all time, as a licence to kill. And that is exactly what happens. The
Koran is worded in such a way that its instructions are addressed to Muslims for eternity, which includes today's Muslims. This in contrast to texts in the Bible, which is formulated as a number of historical narratives, placing events in a distant past. Let us remind ourselves that it was Muslims, not Jews or Christians, who committed the catastrophic terrorist attacks in New York, Madrid and London; and that it was no coincidence that Theo van Gogh was brutally murdered by a Muslim, Mohammed Bouyeri.

Madam Speaker, I acknowledge that there are people who call themselves Muslims and who respect our laws. My party, the Freedom Party, has nothing against such people, of course. However, the Koran does have something against them. For it is stated in the Koran in Sura 2, verse 85, that those believers who do not believe in everything the Koran states will be humiliated and receive the severest punishment; which means that they will roast in Hell. In other words, people who call themselves Muslims but who do not believe, for example, in Sura 9, verse 30, which states that Jews and Christians must be fought, or, for example, in Sura 5, verse 38, which states that the hand of a thief must be cut off, such people will be humiliated and roast in Hell. Note that it is not me who is making this up. All this can be found in the Koran. The Koran also states that Muslims who believe in only part of the Koran are in fact apostates, and we know what has to happen to apostates. They have to be killed.

Madam Speaker, the Koran is a book that incites to violence. I remind the House that the distribution of such texts is unlawful according to Article 132 of our Penal Code. In addition, the Koran incites to hatred and calls for murder and mayhem. The distribution of such texts is made punishable by Article 137(e). The Koran is therefore a highly dangerous book; a book which is completely against our legal order and our democratic institutions. In this light, it is an absolute necessity that the Koran be banned for the defence and reinforcement of our civilisation and our constitutional state. I shall propose a second-reading motion to that effect.

Madam Speaker, there is no such thing as "moderate Islam".... As Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan said the other day, and I quote, "There is no moderate or immoderate Islam. Islam is Islam and that's it".... Islam is in pursuit of dominance. It wishes to exact its imperialist agenda by force on a worldwide scale (8:39). This is clear from European history. Fortunately, the first Islamic invasion of Europe was stopped at Poitiers in 732; the second in Vienna in 1683.

Madam Speaker, let us ensure that the third Islamic invasion, which is currently in full spate, will be stopped too in spite of its insidious nature and notwithstanding the fact that, in contrast to the 8th and 17th centuries, it has no need for an Islamic army because the scared
"dhimmis" in the West, also those in Dutch politics, have left their doors wide open to Islam and Muslims.

Apart from conquest, Madam Speaker, Islam is also bent on installing a totally different form of law and order, namely Sharia law. This makes Islam, apart from a religion for hundreds of millions of Muslims also, and in particular, a political ideology (with political/constitutional/Islamic basic values, etc). Islam is an ideology without any respect for others; not for Christians, not for Jews, not for non-believers and not for apostates. Islam aims to dominate, subject, kill and wage war.

Madam Speaker, the Islamic incursion must be stopped. Islam is the Trojan Horse in Europe. If we do not stop Islamification now, Eurabia and Netherabia will just be a matter of time. One century ago, there were approximately 50 Muslims in the Netherlands. Today, there are about 1 million Muslims in this country. Where will it end? We are heading for the end of European and Dutch civilisation as we know it. Where is our Prime Minister in all this? In reply to my questions in the House he said, without batting an eyelid, that there is no question of our country being Islamified. Now, this reply constituted a historical error as soon as it was uttered. Very many Dutch citizens, Madam Speaker, experience the presence of Islam around them. And I can report that they have had enough of burkas, headscarves, the ritual slaughter of animals, so-called honour revenge, blaring minarets, female circumcision, hymen restoration operations, abuse of homosexuals, Turkish and Arabic on the buses and trains as well as on town hall leaflets, halal meat at grocery shops and epartment stores, Sharia exams, the Finance Minister's Sharia mortgages, and the enormous over representation of Muslims in the area of crime, including Moroccan street terrorists.

In spite of all this, Madam Speaker, there is hope. Fortunately. The majority of Dutch citizens have become fully aware of the danger, and regard Islam as a threat to our culture. My party, the Freedom Party, takes those citizens seriously and comes to their defence.

Many Dutch citizens are fed up to the back teeth and yearn for action. However, their representatives in The Hague are doing precisely nothing. They are held back by fear, political correctness or simply electoral motives. This is particularly clear in the case of PvdA, the Dutch Labour Party, which is afraid of losing Muslim voters. The Prime Minister said in Indonesia the other day that Islam does not pose any danger. Minister Donner believes that Sharia law should be capable of being introduced in the Netherlands if the majority want it. Minister Vogelaar babbles about the future Netherlands as a country with a Judeo-Christian-Islamic tradition, and that she aims to help Islam take root in Dutch society. In saying this, the Minister shows that she has obviously gone stark raving mad. She is betraying Dutch culture and insulting Dutch citizens.

Madam Speaker, my party, the Freedom Party, demands that Minister Vogelaar retract her statement. If the Minister fails to do so, the Freedom Party parliamentary group will withdraw its support for her. No Islamic tradition must ever be established in the Netherlands: not now and also not in a few centuries' time.

Madam Speaker, let me briefly touch on the government's response to the WRR [Netherlands Scientific Council for Government Policy] report. On page 12 of its response, the government states that Islam is not contrary to democracy or human rights. All I can say to that is that things can't get much more idiotic than this.

Madam Speaker, it is a few minutes to twelve. If we go on like this, Islam will herald the end of our Western civilisation as well as Dutch culture.

I would like to round off my first-reading contribution with a personal appeal to the Prime Minister on behalf of a great many Dutch citizens: stop the Islamification of the Netherlands!

Mr Balkenende, a historic task rests on your shoulders. Be courageous. Do what many Dutch citizens are screaming out for. Do what the country needs. Stop all immigration from Muslim countries, ban all building of new mosques, close all Islamic schools, ban burkas and the Koran. Expel all criminal Muslims from the country, including those Moroccan
street terrorists that drive people mad. Accept your responsibility! Stop Islamification!

Enough is enough, Mr Balkenende.
Enough is enough."

Sunday, April 13, 2008

"Juden Raus"! Jews - Get Out!

[The following is a commentary by Emanuel A. Winston, a Middle East analyst and commentator. It's important that every citizen of the United States reads it as it puts forth the US government's position as far as Jews living in the land that God — the creator of the heavens and earth, gave the nation of Israel. Contrary to what many US citizens want to believe, the United States is not a friend of Israel. (This was reported in the ENS weekly newsletter, W/E: March 22, 2008.)]

Reminiscent of the Nazi orders for Jews to "Get Out!", US Ambassador to Israel, Richard Jones, tells the Jews to get out of Jerusalem. Richard Jones, speaking for both himself as well as President George W. Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, ordered Israel's Jews to move out of their ancient, eternal capital of Jerusalem in deference to Muslim Arab Palestinians [sic] who want to move in.

Ambassador Jones, you have shamed your nation, acting the bigot as the voice of the Bush and Rice regime who are looking for a memorable legacy.

If Israel Prime Minister Ehud Olmert had any courage, he would demand that the US State Department recall Jones as unethical and unsuitable for his post. To say to a Jewish nation that has been hounded to death by bigots and anti-Semites that they must get out of their Holy City of Jerusalem shames all Americans.

King David declared Jerusalem to be the Holy Capital of the Jewish people and his kingdom in 1003 BCE. The City remained the capital of the Davidic dynasty for 400 years, until the kingdom was conquered by the Babylonians. Following their return from the Babylonian exile in 538 BCE, Jerusalem again served as the capital of the Jewish people in its land for the next five and a half centuries. During the six centuries of Roman and Byzantine rule, Caesarea, not Jerusalem, was the capital for the Christians. During Muslim rule over the city, whether Arab or non-Arab, Jerusalem was never made the political capital of a Muslim entity or even a province within the Muslim empire. They made Ramle their political center.

That the City of King David was the Capital of the Jews for thousands of years before Arabs, Muslims or America became a nation is an irrefutable fact of history, despite deniers. You, Mr. Jones, have clearly demonstrated that you are a bigot of the first order and must be dismissed — unless, of course, you are to be defended by President Bush and Secretary Rice. Appeasing Muslim Arab Palestinians [sic], be they Fatah or Hamas, reflects political doctrine that is cruelly biased.

Over centuries, Jews have been driven out of various Christian European nations and Muslim Arab countries - simply because they were Jews. It's not the first time that our Land and assets have been coveted and confiscated by Gentile governments. Only this time the doctrine comes from an American presidential dynasty with German ancestors living in free America who carries with them that old virus of anti-Semitism, barely hidden behind a US State Department policy dedicated to appeasing Muslim and Arab oil nations.

Driving Jews off their Land and confiscating their assets is not new.

The Church and aristocracy of Spain drove the Jews out of their Land while seizing their assets and cancelling loans the Church and King borrowed from the Jews.

The Germans confiscated everything they could, from buildings, banks, factories, cancelling all debts, cancelling insurance owed to the Jews and finally, extracting the gold from the teeth of their corpses. The Swiss mountain dwarfs acted as Germany's "fence" to dispose of their loot and thus kept the war going for several years, killing more Jews and American soldiers.

The rest of Europe, France, for example, first turned their Jews over to the Gestapo and then fell on the assets of the Jews like vultures. Apartments, houses, art collections - some found later in the offices of François Mitterrand, among others. Apartments of Jews were doled out to business partners or relatives of the French politicians.

When the Arab and/or Muslims of Egypt, Iran, Syria, Iraq, Libya, etc. drove 850,000 Jews out of their countries, the Muslim Arabs looted everything. Bank accounts, land, stores with goods still on the shelves, factories, debts cancelled. The Jews were driven out with only the clothes on their backs and the nations of the world remained silent.

We cannot forget American diplomats like the Dulles Brothers, John Foster and Allen, who assisted in grabbing the gold train carrying the loot the Germans stole from the Jews. Art collections of the Masters, silver table service, gold, jewelry and more. That mostly disappeared although some of the valuables were taken by high ranking American officers to be shipped back to their homes as "booty".

Ah. Yes! I remember it well.

So now, the Bush family with a history that goes back to Prescott Bush, a great supporter of Adolph Hitler who established the Bush family fortune, now wishes to dispose of Jerusalem. The Bush regime wants what the Jews own and built to be confiscated and used as payment to hordes of Muslim terrorists.

Even the Church of Rome, guided by a German Pope, formerly part of the Hitler Youth wants its part of the Jerusalem loot — including political and religious control over Jerusalem.

And so it goes... the Jews build and the nations steal what the Jews build.

Everyone who reads this should vigorously protest to their own Congressmen, the White House, the State Department, the media, the Israeli Knesset members and world Jewry. Provide this article to all their local papers and TV news outlets.

Please read the following in the context of our comments above:

US Ambassador: Jews Will Just Have to Leave Jerusalem

Source: Israel Today

US Ambassador to Israel Richard Jones suggested during a tour of overcrowded Jewish neighborhoods in Jerusalem on Monday that many Jews will just have to move out of the capital rather than expand into parts of the city claimed by the Palestinians [sic].

Jones told said in an interview with The Jerusalem Post that Washington is growing increasingly displeased with Jewish housing projects on the eastern side of Jerusalem, which are certain to hinder efforts to conclude a peace deal along the lines of US President George W. Bush's vision for the region.

The American envoy said he is well aware of the lack of Jewish housing in Jerusalem, but in a remark betraying a lack of understanding regarding Jewish historical and spiritual connection to the city Jones concluded that "sometimes people do have to move to a different location. They cannot always stay close to their families."

He insisted that more important than the Jews' restoration to their biblical capital and heartland is Israel's implementation of commitments made as part of the US-driven Road Map peace process, even if unreciprocated by the Palestinians [sic].

Jones ended the interview by all but justifying the Palestinian Authority's ongoing failure to meet its primary obligations to curb anti-Israel violence and incitement by stating that "it is not easy for either side to move ahead when they see the provocative behavior of the other side."

British Muslims in airliner terror plot 'talked of taking families on suicide missions'




By CHARLOTTE GILL

Members of a British Muslim terrorist cell discussed taking their wives and children on suicide missions to blow up transatlantic jets, a jury heard yesterday. The ringleader, Abdulla Ahmed Ali, was bugged by police talking about whether to bring his baby son but said his wife "would not agree to it". Umar Islam, however, said his wife might join the plot if it were a "significant operation".

Assad Sarwar, and Abdulla Ahmed Ali 'wanted to cause Chernobyl-style disaster'

Six of the eight-strong gang each made "chilling" suicide videos expressing the desire to wreak "death and destruction" against the West and "Kuffar", or non-believers. They were intended to serve as taunts from beyond the grave if their horrifying plot had succeeded, it was claimed.

The men wore western suits and blank expressions in the dock of Woolwich Crown Court, South-East London, as they watched their videos in which they were dressed in Islamic garb. Their "fanatical" shrieks echoed around the courtroom as they listed Britain's involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan as alleged justification for mass murder. In his recording, 29-year-old Islam accused fellow Britons of being "too busy watching EastEnders" to care about the problems in the Middle East while Ali, 27, warned that their "body parts" would be "decorating the streets".

Mr Wright said the men's video messages left "very little room for any degree of ambiguity" as to their intentions. While some, including Islam, seemed to be reading from prepared notes, others were "speaking from the heart".

The defendants are all accused of plotting to blow up at least seven planes flying from Heathrow to cities in the U.S. and Canada by detonating bombs made from softdrink bottles. If they had been successful, almost 2,000 passengers and crew would have been killed with countless more casualties if the airliners had come down over land.

The plotters allegedly bought a top-floor flat in a terrace house in Walthamstow, East London for £138,000 cash in the weeks before their arrest in August 2006. They used the empty property as a bomb factory. A film was shown to the jury of a device constructed by scientists in a 500ml Oasis bottle to resemble the bomb which the conspirators were allegedly trying to make. The force of the blast cracked the protective strengthened glass covering the camera and sent plastic sheets lining the test chamber tumbling to the ground.

The jury heard that police recorded a conversation between Islam and Ali at the bomb factory, where the two discussed taking their children on their suicide mission. Referring to a train bombing where a man wanted to take his child, Ali said: "That's why he wanted to take his kid on the train with him. Shake them up. "Should I take my lot on? I know my wife would not agree to it."

Mr Wright told the jury: "Such a sacrifice is beyond contemplation for those who are the targets but not those who participate in activities such as these." In a bugged conversation in July 2006, Ali said the attack was a "couple of weeks" away. He was married with a nine-month-old son at the time of his arrest in August 2006, the court heard.

Police found a piece of paper at his home on which he wrote a quotation.

It read: "If I was to be given the news that I will be meeting the most beautiful wife and the news of having a baby boy just born, it is more dear to my heart that I will be waiting in a tent in the cold dark chilly weather waiting for dawn so that I may attack the enemy." Islam told Ali that his wife found his own "martyrdom" script in his house after it fell out his pocket. "I was hoping she didn't read it and then she goes, 'I read that thing'. She goes, 'Is that what I think it is?' "And I goes, 'Don't ask no questions', and then she just left it."

One tape containing some of the suicide messages was found along with a camcorder in the boot of Sarwar's car when he was arrested with Ali on the night of August 9, 2006 in a car park in Walthamstow. The other tape was found hidden in his garage at his home 30 miles away in High Wycombe, Buckinghamshire.

The court heard that Sarwar spent the months before his arrest "stockpiling" the necessary ingredients to make the bombs.

In the days before their arrests, the bombers applied for new passports – falsely claiming theirs had been lost – so they could discard their old ones containing stamps for travel to Pakistan and so "appear Western and look less conspicuous" to airport security staff. The prosecution said the bombers planned to take a pornographic magazine and condoms in their hand luggage. Mr Wright said: "We say that that amounts to, in military terms, what one may describe as fieldcraft. "Within one's hand luggage, items that would lead the security guard either to be distracted or to conclude that the owner of it was unlikely to be a radicalised Islamist who was engaged in a violent and deadly agenda. "Similarly, the presence of condoms in the hand luggage, we say, is designed to suggest that the traveller has in mind a journey, and the subsequent pursuit of mutual pleasure, rather than to be the harbinger of death." He said the bombers planned to take a drink similar to the bomb so if staff became suspicious, they could drink the real one and diffuse concerns. But the drink should be a different flavour, so the bombers did not become confused and drink the bomb liquid.

The accused are Abdulla Ahmed Ali, 27, Waheed Zaman, 23, and Arafat Waheed Khan, 26, all from Walthamstow, East London; Ibrahim Savant, 27, from Stoke Newington, North London, Mohammed Gulzar, 26, from Barking, East London, Assad Sarwar, 27, from High Wycombe, Buckinghamshire, Tanvir Hussain, 27, from Leyton, East London and Umar Islam, 29, from Plaistow, East London.

All deny conspiracy to murder and conspiracy to commit an act of violence likely to endanger the safety of an aircraft.

The trial continues.

CHARLOTTE GILL

Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.

Liquid Bomb Plot Accused's 'Martyr' Video


A man accused of plotting to blow up trans-Atlantic planes filmed a martydom video in which he praises Osama bin Laden, a court had heard.

The 19-minute film of Umar Islam has been played to a jury at Woolwich Crown Court.

Wearing a black and white checked headscarf, the 29-year-old also praises Taliban leader Mullah Omar.

Speaking in front of a black flag covered in Arabic writing, he said Allah "loves us to die and kill in his path".

He added: "To Mullah Omar and Sheikh Osama and the brothers, keep on going, keep on remaining firm, but truly you have inspired many of the Muslims and you have inspired me personally to follow the true path of the prophet."

Islam, of Plaistow, east London, is one of eight men on trial who deny conspiring to murder thousands by exploding home-made liquid bombs on airliner flights.

Six of the defendants recorded suicide videos outlining their hatred of the West and threatening further attacks, prosecutors said.

The films, recorded on a Sony camcorder, were discovered in defendant Assad Sarwar's car.

During his speech, Islam pointed his finger at the camera and repeatedly checked notes on his lap.

The alleged leader of the gang, Abdulla Ahmed Ali, 27, was present and asked questions from behind the camera.

Islam began: "This is from Umar Islam, the son of Islam, to the people of the world, to let you know the reasons for this action which Inshallah [God willing] I am going to undertake.

"This is an obligation on me as a Muslim to wage Jihad against the Kuffar [non-believers]."

He said: "This is revenge for the actions of the USA in the Muslim lands and their accomplices such as the British and the Jews.

"This is a warning to the non-believers that if they do not leave our lands there are many more like us and many more like me ready to strike until the law of Allah is established on this earth."

Islam said no-one was innocent and accused all British people of being complicit in fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan.

He said: "Most of you too busy, you know, watching Home and Away and Eastenders, complaining about the World Cup, drinking your alcohol, to even care about anything.

"That's all you seem to care about, and I know because I've come from that."

Talk To Hamas? Bad Idea.




By Dr. Robert O. Freedman

In the aftermath of the recent Israeli incursion into Gaza, which proved unsuccessful in stopping rocket attacks into Israel, and given the rising popularity of Hamas in Palestinian public opinion polls, suggestions have been made that the time has come for Israel to begin negotiations with Hamas. This has been heard in the United States, Europe, and even Israel.

There have been three main arguments for this change in Israeli policy.

• First, it is argued, it is necessary to talk to a terrorist organization in order to get it to change its policy, just as Britain did with the Irish Republican Army.

• Second, for there to be a lasting peace between Israel and the Palestinians, Hamas, which represents a significant proportion of the Palestinians, must be brought into the peace process, lest it sabotage it with rocket fire from Gaza.

• Finally, for Israeli towns like Sderot to ever know peace, a negotiated agreement with Hamas is needed. All three arguments are fallacious.

Let's explore each issue.

Talking to terrorists: The example of the IRA is a misleading one. The IRA never had as one of its goals the destruction of Great Britain. By contrast, the avowed goal of Hamas — a goal that has not changed in the more than two years since it won the Palestinian Legislative Council elections in January 2006 — is the destruction of Israel.

A better example to look at is the evolution of the Palestine Liberation Organization. The United States and Israel refused to have any negotiations with the PLO until it changed its policy calling for the destruction of Israel and also renounced terrorism, something that the organization finally did in November 1988.

Thus for Israel, the United States and/or the European Union to begin talks with Hamas before it met these requirements, would give diplomatic legitimacy to its call to destroy Israel, and reward its terrorist actions, something that would only encourage more terrorism in the future.

Promoting a Palestinian- Israeli peace agreement: Here the argument is that Hamas must be enticed into joining Fatah's efforts to make peace with Israel, and the way to do this is to negotiate with it.

Given the fact that the organization is headquartered in Syria, and is strongly supported by Iran, the possibility that Hamas would change its policy before there was a Syrian- Israeli peace agreement is highly unlikely. In addition, the prospects for a Syrian-Israeli peace agreement, given the growing ties between Iran and Syria, are distant at best. Indeed, it is more likely, should Hamas and Fatah reconcile, that Hamas would pressure Fatah into taking a more militant position vis-a-vis Israel.

Providing peace to Sderot: There are a number of problems with this argument.

First, if Israel and Hamas negotiated a cease-fire, what would prevent Hamas from exploiting the time to further consolidate its hold over Gaza, and smuggle in the kinds of weapons through the porous border crossing with Egypt, which would not only threaten Sderot, but Tel Aviv as well?

Second, Israel's negotiations with Hamas would undermine the position of Mahmoud Abbas — a position that is not too strong to begin with — and possibly facilitate a Hamas takeover of the West Bank.

Finally, the very act of negotiating with Hamas, if it were undertaken by Israel, would give diplomatic legitimacy to the Hamas call for the destruction of Israel.

Under the circumstances, what is needed is not negotiations with Hamas, but strong military action against it. This time, Israel should not undertake a brief incursion, but a major invasion of Gaza to uproot Hamas once and for all.

If the Israeli leadership doesn't take such action, it risks Hamas growing into an even greater menace to the State of Israel than it is today.

Dr. Robert O. Freedman is Peggy Meyerhoff Pearlstone professor of political science at Baltimore Hebrew University and visiting professor of political science at Johns Hopkins University. Among his publications are "Israel in The Begin Era," "Israel Under Rabin," "Israel's First Fifty Years," and the forthcoming "Contemporary Israel: Israeli Political, Economic and Strategic Challenges Since Rabin," (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 2008).

Copyright
- Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.

The Father of Palestine: Into Ramallah with George W. Bush. Part I

By David Samuels


1st part of 3


"I've never been to Ramallah before," one of the White House correspondents says, gazing out at the cold gray mountains outside Jerusalem. The walls and ceilings of the buses provided for the press are lined with strips of old shag carpet, and it takes two skinny Third-World-person-sized seats to fit a single network cameraman accompanying President Bush on the first leg of his pilgrimage to the Middle East. The printed sign in Hebrew at the front of the bus reads HEBRON. This is an armored bus that has been diverted from its normal route in the West Bank, which explains why the windows are so thick and the aisles are so narrow.

The rest of the reporters in the bus stare out the windows, trying to make heads or tails of the bleak, rain-swept moonscape of the Judean Hills. It is one of the great disappointments of first-time travelers to Jerusalem that the hills surrounding the city where King Herod ruled and Jesus was crucified look nothing like softly glowing Bible
illustrations of well-fed cows and humble donkeys. Instead, the scenery largely consists of barren fields of broken rocks that look like they were smashed by a surly giant with a sledgehammer.

Ripped from Ambien-induced slumbers at 5:45 a.m., the White House press has been fed an Israeli hodgepodge of hummus, eggs, smoked fish, and coffee for breakfast in the lobby of the Dan Panorama Hotel before being swept for weapons and explosives by the Secret Service and then badged in the lobby by future "Good Morning America" host Dana Perino. In addition to the White House photo badge, there is also the hexagonal traveling-pool badge and a Palestinian Authority press badge bearing the insignia of the P.A. and the Palestine Liberation Organization, two organizations that also might as well be located on the moon.

"THERE ARE NO PEOPLE," SOMEONE GASPS

Driving through the rain in Ramallah, we pass through a cordon of Palestinian Authority soldiers in brand-new camo uniforms carrying M-16 rifles that looked as if they had been freshly unpacked from their crates. "There are no people," someone gasps, as we head into the sterile zone set up by the Palestinian Preventive Security Force with the aid of the Americans over the past few days.

Residents in the streets surrounding the Muqata - the old British prison that served as Yasser Arafat's headquarters and has since been inherited by his successor, Mahmoud Abbas ("Abu Mazen") - have been told not to go out onto balconies or roofs and to stay away from windows while the president is here.

The largely fictional nature of Palestinian self-government in the West Bank is shown by the fact that only a token handful of Abbas's Presidential Guards are allowed inside the sterile zone, which has been secured by U.S. sniper teams and electronic warfare specialists.

In the week before the president's visit, the Israel Defense Forces spent four days arresting wanted men in Nablus, a city that the Authority had declared to be a shining example of its recent security successes.
Israel also cut fuel supplies to the Gaza Strip, the seaside jail where a majority of the Palestinian population lives under the control of Hamas, the murderous Islamist militia that won a plurality of the votes in the Palestinian elections in January 2006 and now showers Southern Israel with rockets.

Having been stripped of its democratic mandate by Abu Mazen, Hamas replied by taking control of the Gaza Strip in approximately 48 hours between June 12 and June 14, 2007, exposing the hollowness of the American commitment to the electoral process and also the inability of the Palestinian security forces to defend themselves with their slick new American-donated weapons.

"WE GOT WINNIE"

At the entrance to the Muqata, visitors are greeted by a large portrait of Arafat in a black and white kaffiyeh hanging next to his colorless successor, Abbas. "The South Africans got Nelson Mandela," a Palestinian friend from Jerusalem once told me. "We got Winnie Mandela." As a student of revolutionary movements, my friend believes that the personal character of the historical leader has a determining impact on the political culture of the future state.

In his view, Arafat's essential trait was duplicity. By being all things to all people, and refusing to commit himself to a single course of action, Arafat's legacy is that he has made it impossible for the Palestinians to choose their own fate.

The press is rushed from the armored buses to the Muqata's main briefing room, a professional-looking setup with state-of-the-art overhead light arrays and other CNN-ready paraphernalia put together at a cost of over $1 million in U.S. taxpayer money in order to provide American officials like the president and the secretary of state with a secure, camera-ready location from which to transmit their latest newsworthy pronouncements.

On the wall near the door hangs a large printed plastic banner of the gold-topped Dome of the Rock rising above the walls of the Old City of Jerusalem. The White House press corps is seated near the door, in case something happens and they need to be hurried back to the buses. The Palestinian press corps, shivering outside in secure tents, will soon be allowed to take their places across the aisle, in a section of folding chairs in front of Abu Mazen's podium.

A CONVENIENT MYTH

Even if Abbas is a "good man," in the patronizing formula adopted by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, it is hard to see why the president of the United States believes so strongly in the likelihood of brokering a peace deal between a weak Israeli government and a Palestinian Authority that exists largely on paper and has no obvious means of future support.

It is true, of course, that the fiction of the Palestinian Authority is convenient for everyone. Without the myth of Palestinian self-government, Israel would be forced to rule the West Bank directly, the Americans would pressure Israel to leave, and the Jordanians would go weak at the knees at the thought of a second Gaza Strip arising on their border. Still, confusing the fig leaf offered by the P.A. with a functioning state seems like too big a blunder even for an administration that brought us the failed U.S. puppet government in Iraq.

When it comes to describing the purpose of today's staged event, the reporters in the room are therefore in a double or triple bind. It is rude to say that the Palestinian Authority is a fiction and that a peace treaty signed with an imaginary entity would be a joke. It is rude to say that there is no immediate solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Because it is rude to say these things, it becomes difficult - if not impossible - for reporters and editors to think about why the president is here.

IRAN, IRAN, IRAN

In the more conspiratorially minded climates of the Middle East, for example, it did not escape notice that the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) announcing that Iran had suspended its nuclear weapons program was published after the U.S. Army announced that attacks on U.S. troops by IEDs and other explosive devices of Iranian origin had fallen by nearly two-thirds.

It was also noted that President Bush had publicly approved of the Russian decision to ship nuclear fuel rods to the Bushehr reactor. In the opinion of regional conspiracy buffs, the president was pursuing a secret deal with Iran, and the focus on a grand plan for peace between Israelis and Palestinians in 2008 was intended to give plausible cover to a trip whose real purpose was to reassure the skittish Kuwaitis and Saudis that the Americans were not planning to fold up their tents and go home.

In the meantime, the White House press corps has been left to speculate on the chances for solving the 100-year-old Arab-Israeli conflict in the next twelve months while watching one of the Muqata flacks hang foam-backed Palestinian eagles on little hooks at the front of each podium.

A young Palestinian reporter seated in front of me is writing down a question in her lined notebook, in case President Bush calls on her. "Mr. President, there has been talk about you giving the green light to the Israelis about a military strike," she writes. A woman from the U.S. Consulate distributes Star Trek-like devices that will allow the reporters to hear a simultaneous translation of Abbas's remarks.

"THEY'RE COMING!"

At 11:07, eight minutes early, a wedge of security people moves toward the stage. "They're coming!" the press handlers announce. The sound of shutters going off fills the room like someone flipping through a deck of plastic-covered playing cards. "Two minutes, guys." The room falls silent. The truth is that it is difficult if not impossible for any native-born American to travel on a presidential plane, go through the endless security checks, and bear witness to the extreme precautions that are taken to ensure the president's safety at every stop, and still conclude that what you are watching is void of significance.

Faster than expected, Bush walks in from the cold and winks at the traveling press, who generally seem to like him. Next to him is Abbas, who wears a gray suit with a white shirt and a dull striped tie as he addresses the leader of the free world for the cameras: "Our people will not forget Your Excellency," Abbas begins in Arabic, "and your commitment toward the establishment of an independent Palestinian state."

The father of the future state of Palestine fumbles with his earpiece, which is not working. "I haven't got it yet," Bush says. He points to a White House correspondent in the front row. "You better stay awake," he jokes. Everyone laughs. The Palestinian press is discovering what the American reporters already know, which is that Saint George, Defender of Western Civilization is also a world-class cut-up.

David Samuels

Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.

The Father of Palestine: Into Ramallah with George W. Bush. Part II

By David Samuels

2nd part of 3

FINALLY THE EARPIECE IS FIXED

"Our people, Your Excellency," Abbas begins again. The president's earpiece still isn't working. "I agree completely," Bush says. Finally the earpiece is fixed, and he settles in to listen as Abbas praises "our Palestinian people who are committed to peace as a strategic option." It would be easier for everyone, of course, if Abbas were given to praising "our Palestinian people who are committed to peace," without adding that odd little phrase at the end.

Well, the truth is, it's an old formula, you can hear the presidential translator, Gamal Helal, saying, as he explains what "strategic option" really means for the umpteenth time on the way back to Jerusalem.

Bush turns his face to the camera as he steps to the microphone. "We have met a lot in the past, and I'm glad to finally have a chance to sit down in your office to discuss important issues," Bush begins. The translation audio goes out again. "Listen, they say I have enough problems speaking English as it is," Bush jokes, unflustered.

ALICE IN WONDERLAND

He is lean and fit and achingly sincere. Standing next to Abbas, he looks like Jimmy Stewart side by side with the Walrus from Alice in Wonderland. The Palestinians are entrepreneurial people who can create jobs, Bush says, in an encouraging way that makes him sound like he is addressing a Hispanic job fair in San Antonio. A handful of people want to dash the aspirations of the Palestinian people by fomenting chaos and violence.

"We are fully satisfied," Abbas says, in answer to a question from a Palestinian journalist about the results of the meeting. "We spoke about all topics. ... We are agreed on all topics. All topics are clear." His habit of talking out of the side of his mouth makes him sound like he is slightly soused.

While news reports will portray the American president as having expressed empathy with Palestinians, or condemned the Israelis, or predicted a peace treaty by the end of the year ("Bush expects to see Palestinian state before he leaves office," says USA Today), or done other consequential things, the truth is that nearly every sentence out of his mouth has already been said someplace else. Those sentences that don't fit the expected storylines are ignored.

CONDI STARES STONE-FACED AT THE ENORMOUS PLASTIC DOME OF THE ROCK

"Look, the U.N. deal didn't work in the past," Bush says, in answer to a Palestinian question about why the United States doesn't simply enforce the relevant U.N. resolutions relating to Israel the way it did with Iraq - i.e., by bombing. Seated at the side of the room, out of Bush's direct sight line, Rice stares stone-faced at the enormous plastic Dome of the Rock banner. On another day, with another president, a statement that the "U.N. deal" no longer applies to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict might be diplomatic dynamite.

But the truth is that this is Bush, and besides, no one cares anymore. "We can stay stuck in the past, which will yield nothing good for the Palestinians, in my judgment," the president explains. "Do you want this state, or do you want the status quo? Do you want a future based upon a democratic state, or do you want the same old stuff?"

"We'll take a state," Abbas interjects, showing a welcome sign of life. But what he wants doesn't matter all that much anymore, either. If the occupying Israeli army disappeared from the West Bank tomorrow, it is doubtful that he would last more than a few months.

"See, the past has just been empty words, you know," Bush says, leaning over the podium in an oddly ruminative moment. "I'm the only president that's really articulated a two-state solution so far - but saying two states really doesn't have much bearing until borders are defined, right-of-return issues resolved, Jerusalem is understood, security measures - the common security measures will be in place."

A Palestinian reporter asks Abbas how he expects to reclaim the half of his future state that is currently under the control of Hamas. "Gaza is considered a coup by us," Abbas says.

On cue, a cellphone starts ringing at the side of the stage, filling the room with the familiar sound of the adhan, the Muslim call to prayer. "We consider it a coup d'etat," Abbas repeats, his upper lip twitching. The Palestinians crack up. "We spend in Gaza fifty-eight percent of our budget," he explains. "It is our duty toward our people that we provide them what they need."

BACK IN JERUSALEM

Back in Jerusalem, I ask National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley how it is that 58 percent of the Palestinian Authority budget goes to Gaza, which is controlled by Hamas. I suggest that the figure is particularly disturbing in light of the $7.4 billion in aid pledged to the Palestinian Authority at the recent Paris donors' conference. A tall and courteous national security expert, Hadley has the slight stoop of a man who has spent the better part of his life standing at briefing podiums set up for men who are four or five inches shorter than he is.

"Let me reframe your question, if I can," Hadley says. "What is Salam Fayyad, as prime minister in this Palestinian Authority, what is he going to do?" He is playing for time as he tries to sort out the small mess that Abbas has made.

"We don't have a presence in Gaza and haven't for a long time," Hadley parries, as though he wishes to avoid any accusation that the national security adviser's office is getting a cut, too. Finally, he gives in. "We worry about it. Salam Fayyad worries about it. He and President Abbas have no interest in strengthening Hamas," he says, adding, "If you want to get back in and restore the status quo ante to the Hamas coup, the last thing you want to do is stop the money flows." The logic of this last statement is debatable.

For a moment Hadley looks flummoxed, and then he decides to cut his losses and move on, like a man who lost a hand at whist. "Are there risks? You bet," he says briskly. "Are they concerned about it? Sure. Are we concerned about it? Sure."

AN IMAGINARY PALESTINIAN PARTNER

There is no shortage of theories in Jerusalem as to why Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has chosen to lend himself so enthusiastically to the goal of reaching a final-status agreement with an imaginary Palestinian partner. The theory put forward in public by Olmert himself is that the circumstances for an agreement are unlikely to be as favorable to Israel in the future as they are now, with Bush in the White House.

"If the day comes when the two-state solution collapses, and we face a South African-style struggle for equal voting rights ... the State of Israel is finished," Olmert told the Israeli newspaper Haaretz. More cynical minds have plastered the walls near the Prime Minister's office at 3 Rehov Kaplan with posters that show a mournful Olmert behind bars in shirtsleeves and a necktie, beneath the legend: even Bush can't save you.

The popular depiction of Olmert as a sly and personally corrupt lawyer whose shaky judgment resulted in the debacle of the Israeli invasion of Lebanon has some truth to it, yet it slights his ability to finesse big egos while acting in surprising ways that in another life might have won him a job as consigliere for the Bonannos or the Sopranos.

MAKING HIS FOREIGN MINISTER LOOK LIKE AN UNRULY TEENAGER

When Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni launched a campaign to replace him as head of his own Kadima party, for example, Olmert adopted the masterly and entirely counterintuitive strategy of doing absolutely nothing. If Livni wants to sit in Cabinet meetings in the morning and go to rallies against me in the afternoon, his attitude proclaimed, that's her business.

After successfully making his foreign minister look like an unruly teenager, he made his victory complete by appointing her chief negotiator with the Palestinians. Olmert is also surprisingly tall.

"It was a good visit, a productive visit," he intones in a mellow voice, when I ask him how the president's visit went. As he speaks, he palpates my hand as though he was using some kind of ancient Ayurvedic medical technique to judge the fitness of my heart and my liver.

I ask him whether Bush's summary statement on Thursday at the King David Hotel (known for a brief moment as the "King David Statement") contained anything new - Bush's description of Israel as a "homeland for the Jewish people, " for example. "He said it in Annapolis also," the prime minister said, in the tones of a man who has just enjoyed a relaxing hot bath. "It is always refreshing to hear it."

After another minute of chitchat, he glides out of his office and over to the Cabinet room to accept the resignation of Minister for Strategic Affairs Avigdor Lieberman, a former nightclub bouncer from Moldova.

David Samuels

Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.

The Father of Palestine: Into Ramallah with George W. Bush. Part III


By David Samuels

3rd part of 3

ONCE TOUTED AS THE BILL CLINTON OF THE LABOR PARTY

Later in the day, I meet with Deputy Prime Minister Haim Ramon in his half-empty office. Ramon has spent most of the last 15 years in the Cabinet, and was once touted as the Bill Clinton of the Labor Party, before his career was briefly derailed by a sexual harassment case. Now he is the second-ranking member of the government.

"The prime minister and the defense minister had talks with four eyes and six eyes with the president about Iran," Ramon says, using the Israeli locution for private meetings. "Those talks were very important." Before the NIE, Ramon says, he estimated the chances of a U.S. attack on Iran at 5 percent. Now he estimates the chances at 2 percent.

Bush told Olmert that he would not waste his precious last year in office on brokering a peace deal between Israelis and Palestinians unless both sides were serious about reaching a deal. It is the opinion of the government of the State of Israel that a deal can in fact be reached, Ramon says. "It doesn't mean that on the first of January, 2009, a Palestinian flag will be raised over Jerusalem, " he cautions. "But we will reach a framework, a Declaration of Principles, in 2008, and that will be the agreement that will be implemented in the future."

"A SHARP GLIMMER OF UNDERSTANDING PENETRATES MY FOGGY BRAIN"

When I ask Ramon whether he shares Olmert's opinion that Israel will be "finished" if the two-state solution collapses, he cocks his head. "I say that Israel is risking itself as a Jewish and a democratic state," he says. In Ramon's view, and in the view of most members of the cabinet, continuing the occupation poses a strategic threat to Israel. "We are not doing a favor for the Palestinians," Ramon says. "This is a conflict between Israel and Israel itself."

It would be wonderful if the Palestinian government somehow gains enough strength to carry out its commitments under the road map, Ramon suggests. If not, he continues, "we have to take unilateral steps that will solve these issues."

A sharp glimmer of understanding penetrates my foggy brain. The Americans and the Israelis speak with such assurance about reaching an agreement by the end of 2008 because they are talking about a paper agreement with a paper partner to create a state that will only exist on paper.

"WE NEED TO DEFINE OUR BORDERS AND TELL THEM, 'BYE-BYE'"

If a strong Palestinian government "untainted by terror" never arises - as seems quite possible, if not likely - then Israel will withdraw from most of the West Bank anyway. "It is up to us to secure our own future," Ramon says, spreading his hands wide apart.

"We can live without peace with the Palestinians, but we can't continue to live with the occupation. We need to separate from them. We need to define our borders and tell them, 'Bye-bye, go live however you want, and peace be with you. And, if you want to keep fighting, we'll kill you until you stop.'"

Among the range of sources I speak to inside and outside the current Israeli government, no one suggests that Olmert's weak coalition is up to the task of bulldozing large Israeli communities like Kiryat Arba that are located east of any future border. No one I talked to, from politicians to generals, expects combat-hardened U.S. or British or French troops to arrive to police the West Bank.

No one wants to see the West Bank become another Gaza Strip. No one believes the badly fractured Palestinian polity is capable of meeting its commitments. Which means that most Israeli troops and settlers will stay more or less exactly where they are today. If the Palestinian security commitments will mostly exist on paper, the Israeli disengagement from the West Bank, unlike the disengagement from Gaza, will also exist mostly on paper.

"A STROKE OF POLITICAL GENIUS"

From the standpoint of its inventors, at least, the paper disengagement is a stroke of political genius that gives all the parties most of what they want. The Israelis will get international credit for committing to do in the future what they are not able to do in the present - namely, to withdraw large numbers of Israeli soldiers and settlers from the West Bank.

The fiction of an Israeli withdrawal can support the fiction of a Palestinian state run by Abbas and Fatah, whose physical security will be insured by the presence of actual Israeli troops on the ground.

The Americans can get a diplomatic success that can give added credibility to a diplomatic alliance against Iran, or peacemaking efforts with Iran, depending on how the wind blows in the next six months.

Starved of political legitimacy and government funding, settlements east of the future border will slowly wither on the vine, making an actual Israeli withdrawal - when it happens, with or without the establishment of a Palestinian state, whether Fatah or Hamas is in charge - that much easier.

IN TWO YEARS, THE P.A. MAY NO LONGER EXIST, EVEN ON PAPER

It is easy to imagine why, within the historical parameters of the conflict, any Palestinian leader worth his salt would find such a reasonable yet utterly ridiculous exercise - in which the "right of return" is finally assigned to the dustbin of history - to be an unbearable humiliation, and refuse to sign it, just as Yasser Arafat refused to sign the real-life version of the same agreement at Camp David.

Then again, in another two or three years, the Palestinian Authority may no longer exist, even on paper. The fact that the State of Israel is widely loathed does not diminish the extent to which 15 years of failed Palestinian state-building followed by the failure of the Second Intifada have turned the Palestinian national cause into a byword for gruesome terror bombings and children wearing toy suicide belts in parades.

All you need to do is spend a day driving around Israel and then through the West Bank to see the results of the last 15 years. Israel is a modern First World country whose standard of living is much higher now than it was before Oslo. The Palestinians are beggars.

"DON'T TOUCH THAT, IT'S GARBAGE"

I spend my last few days wandering the Old City of Jerusalem and getting reacquainted with Palestinians I know in the antiquities trade.

My friend Badawi's store is filled with junk, which he uses as a way to calibrate the wants of his customers and what they will be willing to pay. There are strings of silver-inlaid worry beads, engraved plates, daggers, traditional Palestinian headdresses, and other heirlooms that West Bank villagers have sold to feed their families.

"Don't touch that, it's garbage," he instructs me, when I pick up some Turkmeni rings from a bowl.

What I have learned from the afternoons I have spent sitting in Badawi's shop is that commerce is different in Middle Eastern societies than in Anglo-European societies, where commodities are stubbornly believed to have a natural price.

As a result, most Western people find prolonged negotiation to be quite stressful. They pay too much, or become flustered and walk out. Here, fantasy and desire are the acknowledged foundations of any negotiation; negotiation is a way of understanding the mind of your opponent before arriving at a price.

SPOUTING SLOGANS AGAINST THE JEWS

When we are finished eating lunch, I go across the way to visit Mahmoud, another dealer I have known for years. Bundled up against the cold, he talks about his education at St. George's School in East Jerusalem.

A year and a half ago, his son came home from school spouting slogans against the Jews, he says. After consulting with a friend, he enrolled his son in a program for cross- cultural understanding at the YMCA in West Jerusalem and paid to send him on a month-long group trip to Austria. Now his son has Jewish friends.

Still, Mahmoud watches where his son goes, and with whom. As he talks, he reminds me of the parents I have met in inner-city neighborhoods who try to keep their kids away from gangs and drugs. No one could ever convince Mahmoud that Jewish supremacy in his ancestral city is just, any more than they could convince him that the Palestinian national movement since Oslo has been anything other than a failure.

"I went to the mosque today, and the sheik was talking about the difference between legal settlement and illegal settlements," he says, in his soft voice, seeking to define the situation more precisely. "And one man stood up and said, 'There is no difference between settlements and the State of Israel. The fundamental basis of the state is illegal.'

"Now, it doesn't matter whether I agree with him or not," he continues. "But, when I was leaving the mosque, I turned to my friend and I asked him, 'What do we want? Do we want these slogans from the past, or do we want a state?' My friend couldn't answer me. This is the problem of Palestine today."

(David Samuels writes for The Atlantic, Harper's, and The New Yorker.)

Copyright - Original material copyright (c) by the author

Road Map to a Gaza War




By Jackson Diehl

Seven years ago George W. Bush's incoming foreign policy team blamed the Clinton administration for an eleventh-hour rush for a Middle East peace agreement that ended with the explosion of the second Palestinian intifada. Now, with less than 10 months remaining in office, Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice are engaged in a similar last-minute push -- yet they don't seem to recognize the growing risk that their initiative, too, will end with another Israeli-Palestinian war.

Rice visited Jerusalem again last week to press for visible Israeli fulfillment of commitments made at last year's Annapolis conference, and she appeared to win some incremental steps, such as the dismantlement of a few dozen of the several hundred military roadblocks in the West Bank. Yet a more significant Israeli signal may have been delivered by the stream of senior officials who have quietly been visiting Washington in the past month: Israel, they have been saying, is on course for a major conflict with the Hamas movement in the Gaza Strip.

That battle seemed on the verge of beginning a month ago, when Hamas for the first time began firing Iranian-made missiles at the Israeli city of Ashkelon -- in addition to the volleys of homemade rockets it has been aiming at the smaller town of Sderot for several years. After a punishing series of Israeli airstrikes the fighting subsided, and with the State Department's encouragement Egypt began to broker discussions about a more enduring truce. In previous columns, I've argued that such a cease-fire in Gaza is the least bad of Israel's limited options.

But officials portray Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Defense Minister Ehud Barak as having little interest in a deal with Hamas. They acknowledge that a suspension of attacks by both sides might make the ongoing peace talks easier -- and that the outbreak of an all-out conflict would almost certainly kill the Annapolis process.
Yet, increasingly Israeli officials see the confrontation in Gaza with Hamas as more important in strategic terms than the talks with moderate Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. The view in Jerusalem, as more than one official put it to me, is that there is no alternative to a military collision with Hamas in Gaza, probably before the end of the Bush administration.

The grim Israeli view is driven to a large degree by what officials say is the massive and continuing smuggling of weapons into Gaza, sponsored by Iran and tacitly allowed by Egypt, which despite considerable pressure from Washington shrinks from actions that might trigger its own confrontation with Hamas. Hamas is building hardened bunker systems and stockpiling missiles in imitation of the infrastructure built in southern Lebanon by the Iranian-backed Hezbollah movement. The Israelis say hundreds of Hamas militants have traveled to Iran for training in targeting and firing Grad missiles, Iran's version of the old Soviet Katyusha.

Sobered by the bloody nose it suffered when it attacked Hezbollah's Lebanese base in 2006, the Israeli army has been training against Hamas's Gaza strong points. But officials say that the longer the army waits to take on what is now viewed as a strategic threat, the greater Hamas's chance will be to inflict heavy casualties or strike southern Israeli cities with missiles. The cease-fire Egypt seeks (and that Hamas sometimes says it wants) would only make the problem worse, in the Israeli analysis, by giving Hamas the opportunity to accelerate its buildup.

Bush and Rice would like Israel to hold off against Hamas until Olmert can complete an agreement on principles for a final Israeli-Palestinian settlement with Abbas. While Olmert still wants that deal, it's become increasingly clear to the Israelis that an Abbas-led government will never be able to implement it. Despite extensive international aid, the West Bank Palestinian administration remains little more than a shell kept in power by Israel's troops. Hamas, the Israelis say, can stop the peace process at any time by resuming missile attacks against Ashkelon. And whatever happens in Gaza -- whether an Israeli-Hamas truce or all-out war -- Abbas stands to be further damaged. His prime minister, Salam Fayyad, has hinted privately that he might favor an Israeli attack on Hamas, because it would allow Abbas's Fatah movement to take control of Gaza. But Abbas's security forces are unlikely to be strong enough to control Gaza's population of 1.5 million anytime soon.

The Israelis say the coming confrontation won't necessarily involve a full-scale reoccupation of the Gaza Strip. Given the predictable international backlash against any Israeli offensive, and the inevitable satellite television coverage of suffering Palestinians, Olmert is likely to wait for a clear provocation from Hamas. Perhaps it won't happen for a few more months. But what concerns some Israelis is the lack of readiness by the Bush administration for the possibility that its drive for Mideast peace will be overwhelmed by a Mideast war.

Jackson Diehl

Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.