by Boaz Bismuth
Only a few days have
passed since U.S. President Barack Obama's declaration of war -- without
much of a choice -- against the Islamic State (ISIS), and with every
passing day the U.S. is realizing how difficult the job will be. Two
important regional players will not stand at its side in Iraq and Syria:
Turkey won't help, and Iran, not surprisingly, will be a bother.
The campaign against
ISIS cannot be won from the air alone. It is hard to expect the
coalition's jets to be effective against the Sunni terrorists hunkered
down in Mosul and Tikrit. Obama's coalition cannot accommodate too much
harm to Muslim civilians.
Even before the onset
of the war, the president's advisers understood there would be few if
any partners among the countries in the region eager for a ground
offensive. Even the Kurds are not rushing to fight outside their
autonomous region, even though they would be the primary benefactors of
the war against ISIS: An independent state awaits them, perhaps right
around the corner.
And this is precisely
what concerns Iran these days. Nearly a year into Hassan Rouhani's first
term as president, the Iranians understand the cards have been re-dealt
in the Middle East and that they suddenly also have a lot to lose.
The campaign against
ISIS is bringing the United States back to the region. The Iranians were
unhappy about it in 2003, and they don't like it today either. Then,
incidentally, it froze their nuclear project. We can only hope that this
time the Americans will use their return to terminate it once and for
all.
Additionally, Baghdad
will have to reappoint Sunnis to key government positions, after they
were kept out during the era of Nouri al-Maliki, who considered Iran his
central ally. The Iraqi Sunnis have different plans. Moreover, the
establishment of an independent Kurdish state has never appealed to Iran
-- not only because such a development could spark the aspirations of
the Kurdish minority living in Iran itself, but because a future Kurdish
state is expected to have good relations with Israel and the United
States.
The Iranians also know
Obama's coalition will put Bashar Assad's regime in Syria at greater
risk. While the war could, on the one hand, solidify him as a
recognized, albeit negative player in the region, it could also become
an opportunity to eliminate him along with ISIS and crown someone else
in his stead.
The Iranians like the
existing situation, which allows them to buy time (the target date for
reaching an agreement on the nuclear issue is Nov. 24) until they can
finally acquire their bomb. They know that war is a fluid proposition,
and that someone along the way may find it appropriate to take out their
nuclear program along with ISIS.
Boaz Bismuth
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=9955
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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