by Maj. Gen. (ret.) Yaakov Amidror
Last week media outlets
in Israel quoted a diplomatic official as warning that Hamas has
resumed manufacturing rockets and has begun rebuilding the terror
tunnels destroyed by the Israel Defense Forces during the recent Gaza
operation. I dare surmise that the reports were merely attempts to
demonstrate how badly Israel's Gaza operation had failed rather than the
product of reliable information. However, I do believe that at some
point in the future Hamas will in fact resume manufacturing rockets and
digging tunnels. After all, that is the nature of the cease-fire
agreement: Both sides preserve the calm while preparing for the next
confrontation.
Anyone with eyes can
see that in order to obviate preparing for a future confrontation, or to
prevent a future confrontation for that matter, the recent operation
should have been handled differently. The IDF should have re-conquered
the Strip, or at least Gaza City and its immediate surroundings and paid
the price that occupation entails in order to clean out the city.
Israel should have been able to sacrifice more Israeli soldiers and kill
more Palestinians, including many civilians. The occupation would have
been short, but the cleansing process would have gone on for months. The
damage incurred by the fighting and the subsequent cleansing and the
demolition of tunnels would have been immense, much greater than the
devastation actually suffered by the Palestinians (itself not at all
trivial). Finally, Israel would have remained as the only entity
required by law to ensure the reconstruction and rehabilitation of Gaza
and its residents.
The moment Israel
decided not to pay the price these actions entail it became obvious that
there was no way to break Hamas' will to fight or to prevent it from
remaining in power after the operation's end. All the proposed
alternatives were, and are, completely unrealistic both militarily (to
cut off the head of the snake) and in regard to the aftermath (transfer
authority over to the U.N. or hand Gaza over to Palestinian Authority
President Mahmoud Abbas).
Therefore, having no
illusions about the future, we must prepare for the next operation while
simultaneously making every effort to push it as far into the future as
possible. And it is possible. But in order to do so we must instate a
very clear policy under which Israel responds to every cease-fire
violation with force and immediacy.
The rules of the game
will be decided by our response to the first instances of rocket fire,
so it is important to really think about what we will do when that
happens. Fortunately for us, on the other side there is a different
Egypt, not the Egypt that was completely passive during the Mubarak era
or the Egypt that actively supported Hamas during the reign of Mohammed
Morsi. The current Egyptian leadership understands that Hamas poses as
much of a threat to Egypt as it does to Israel, and will make much more
of an effort to prevent Hamas from regaining its power. But even then,
Hamas will inevitably try, and may occasionally succeed, to smuggle
weapons and other materials into the Strip, because military power is
its raison d'ĂȘtre and it will never give it up.
* * *
In the negotiations
that will soon begin in Cairo, Egypt will mediate between Israel and
Hamas. Israel will be pressured to allow the reconstruction of Gaza. The
destruction there is very obvious in certain areas where the fighting
was heavier, and in parts where there were command centers and weapons
manufacturing facilities the destruction is localized, but extensive.
The reconstruction of
Gaza will serve Israel's interests because, alongside Israel's power of
deterrence, the Gazans will own property that they will be afraid to
lose again. But the reconstruction needs to be conducted under a number
of limitations. The chief limitations have to do with building
materials, and Israel must develop a mechanism that will minimize, as
much as possible, the use of materials for building terror tunnels and
military command centers. We must not delude ourselves that Israel can
prevent this absolutely -- partial prevention of spillover will have to
suffice. It cannot be prevented completely.
The true test is not
whether Hamas will continue to rebuild its military might -- in the
absence of Israeli occupation that is the only possible scenario (as we
learned after Oslo and after the unilateral withdrawal from Gaza) -- the
true test is the test of preserved calm. The longer the calm persists,
the more of a success the operation will have been. Time will tell, but
we have the power to influence how the future will unfold, and we must
not forget or neglect that despite the complexity.
It is important that we
readjust our expectations, not just in regard to Gaza. Israel is a
strong country, probably the strongest in the region, but also on a
global scale. However, military ability does not necessitate the use of
force every time we are faced with a security challenge. It is best to
channel our capability, and the little legitimacy we have in the world,
toward the really important threats, certainly if they are critical and
existential, and those are undoubtedly looming. It is essential that
everyone's expectations are in line: the civilian and military
leaderships as well as the public. It is always important, but in times
of crisis it is 10 times more important.
Yaakov Amidror is a major-general (res.) and former national security adviser to the prime minister.
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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