by Yigal Carmon
This MDB is dedicated to the memory of USMC pilot Captain (ret.) David Ganz, a man of honor and gallantry and a decorated officer, who passed away last week.
What Is The
"Iran Nuclear Deal?"
For example, the JCPOA states that in the event of Iranian violations, sanctions will be re-imposed (snapback). However, the Iranian position, which rejects all sanctions, is incorporated in the same document. In outlining the snapback of the sanctions, Article 37 also stipulates: "Iran has stated that if sanctions are reinstated in whole or in part, Iran will treat that as grounds to cease performing its commitments under this JCPOA in whole or in part."[1] This is not merely an Iranian reservation expressed outside of the negotiating room. It is incorporated into the text of this selfsame document – and one that completely contradicts preceding provisions that stipulate otherwise. Since the parties were unable to arrive at an understanding on this issue in two entire years of negotiations, they decided to resolve this major issue by incorporating this disagreement into the document itself.
The JCPOA is best characterized by bangs and whimpers – by bold prohibitions on Iran that peter out in qualifying terms such as "unless," "except if," and the like.
Why isn't the JCPOA a contract? Because Iran would never have signed any contract with the U.S. – "the Great Satan" – whose demise it seeks. Likewise, it would not have signed any contract with any other party to the negotiations, since it views the sanctions imposed on it by United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions and by EU and IAEA reports as grievous injustice. By signing such an agreement, it would retroactively legitimize these wrongs done to it.
As Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei frequently reiterates, Iran agreed to negotiations mainly to get the sanctions lifted. Therefore, as far as Iran is concerned, the only acceptable name for this enterprise is "Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action" – under which each party commits to particular action. It is a joint plan, not a contract.[2]
Has Iran
Fulfilled Its Initial Obligation To Approve The July 14 Vienna JCPOA?
The JCPOA includes a timetable
and obligations applying to both sides. Within this time frame, both parties
had 90 days from July 14 to secure approval for the agreement from their
respective national institutions. By "Adoption Day," set for October
19, which has come and gone, the agreement was meant to have been approved by
both sides. The EU was to have announced the lifting of its sanctions, while
President Obama, on behalf of the U.S., was to have announced the lifting of the
U.S. executive branch's sanctions, along with waivers on sanctions imposed by
the U.S. legislative branch – that is, suspension, because the president is not
authorized to lift them.
Adoption Day was
preceded by a farcical UNSC endorsement of the agreement/disagreement, as
demanded by Iran. The U.S. volunteered to play errand boy for this undertaking.
For its part, the UNSC eschewed discussion on the matter, and passed this historic
resolution, No. 2231,[3] on
such a weighty historic document in record time – under 30 minutes.
The Western
side showed its consent long before October 19; the self-effacing EU member
countries did not even bother to discuss the agreement in their national
parliaments – and thus confirmed their true status as nonentities. And while the
U.S Congress did discuss it seriously, the agreement was allowed to proceed,
via a convoluted process that was nonetheless legal and binding.
In Iran,
however, following discussion in both its Majlis and its Guardian Council, the JCPOA
as concluded and announced on July 14 was not approved. The Majlis ratified something
else – a set of recommendations to the government of Iran regarding how it
should execute the JCPOA. This hardly constitutes approval of the original
document. The Guardian Council, for its part, approved what the Majlis had done;
Guardian Council secretary-general Ayatollah Jannati said, on Iranian TV, that
his council had approved not the JCPOA but a
plan for the government to secure Iran's interests in executing it.[4] Majlis
speaker Ali Larijani said the same thing.[5]
Was this a
fulfillment of what Iran was obligated to do under the JCPOA? No! Did the U.S.
administration insist that Iran approve the JCPOA, as concluded and announced
in Vienna on July 14? No! Does the U.S. realize that Iran's ultimate authority
to approve laws rests with Supreme Leader Khamenei, and that he has not yet
approved the JCPOA? NO! Nevertheless, the U.S. and Europe have chosen to regard
what Iran has done as approval – so that the peace process will not be halted.
The U.S. and
Europe then proceeded to the first post-Adoption Day phase in the JCPOA
timetable: The EU announced that its sanctions would be terminated. President
Obama announced that the U.S.'s executive sanctions would be lifted and its
legislative sanctions waived; this announcement was not for immediate
execution, but in fact advance notice that these measures would come into
effect by December 15 – provided that the IAEA would report that Iran has fulfilled
its obligations under the JCPOA.
What are these
obligations that Iran has to fulfill between Adoption Day and December 15 in
order to merit this sanctions relief? The Arms Control Association, which
supports Iran and the JCPOA, listed them on its website:[6]
*reducing the centrifuges at Natanz from over 16,000
to 5,060 IR-1 machines, which will enrich uranium to 3.67 percent, and
removing the associated infrastructure;
*reducing the number of IR-1 machines centrifuges at
Fordow to 1,000 (328 will operate) and converting the facility for
radioisotope production;
*wrapping up testing on advanced centrifuges machines
and removing all advanced centrifuges except one IR-4, IR-5, IR-6, and
IR-8 machine for testing with uranium;
*storing all dismantled centrifuges under IAEA seal;
*reducing the stockpile of enriched uranium to less
than 300 kilograms;
*removing the core of the Arak reactor and disabling
it; and
*instituting the necessary transparency and monitoring
mechanisms to implement Iran's additional protocol and the continuous
surveillance of key facilities.
Did Iran hasten
to meet these obligations? No! The explanation follows below.
Why Has No One Said A Word About Iran's
Noncompliance?
Since Adoption Day, no one in the
West – not the media, not Capitol Hill, not Israel – has spoken up about the
fraud of Iran's alleged "approval" of the JCPOA. Western intelligence
agencies and think tanks have also held their tongues. Everyone swallowed the
lie, in a spirit of goodwill, in order to allow the JCPOA to proceed, for "peace
in our time."
The Republicans
should have remembered their revered leader, Abraham Lincoln, invoked by Barack
Obama in 2007 when he announced his presidential candidacy at the spot where
Lincoln had done so over 150 years previously. After all, it was Lincoln who said, "You
cannot fool all the people all the time."
The pro-JCPOA political
media have, of course, misled the public by reporting that Iran approved the
JCPOA. But even the anti-JCPOA media have failed to rebut this lie. Why? Ignorance,
unprofessionalism, and hatred for President Obama blinded them. Here is what
they likely are thinking: Obama gave in to Iran on everything. Obviously, Iran is
going to approve this piece of "absolute Western capitulation."
However, Iran
did not get absolutely everything it demanded, and Obama did not give it
absolutely everything it demanded – he held out for a tiny scrap of the U.S.'s
initial position, as will be detailed below. That is why Iran would not approve
the JCPOA – to Iran, anything less than 100% of what it wants is an injustice.
Why Isn't Iran
Rushing To Fulfill Its Obligations And Get Sanctions Relief By December 15?
At this stage, events have taken
an absurd turn. Iran has started dragging its feet. Instead of rushing to carry
out all the steps to meet its obligations under the JCPOA, it is idling in
neutral. It has little time and much to do by December 15. It must dismantle
thousands of centrifuges and transfer them to storage monitored by IAEA cameras.
It must ship out 9,000 kg of its enriched uranium to a third country, retaining
only 300 kg. It must dismantle and pour cement into the core of the Arak
plutonium reactor, and transform the facility into a heavy water reactor. It must
notify the IAEA of its voluntary acceptance of the NPT Additional Protocol. And
more.
But senior
Iranian officials are shifting responsibility for initiating fulfillment of
these obligations to one another, sometimes with comical effect. For example, President
Hassan Rohani sent a letter to Iranian Atomic Energy Organization head Ali
Akbar Salehi instructing him to begin to take the appropriate steps. Salehi
confirmed that he had received Rohani's message, but said that it had not stated
when he should start doing so. No one wanted to budge without explicit
permission from Supreme Leader Khamenei.[7]
Khamenei Issues
Nine New Conditions, Blocks Execution Of JCPOA
Now the big secret is out. Khamenei
has not approved the JCPOA. And those who pretend that it has been approved –
President Rohani, Foreign Minister and negotiator Javad Zarif, and their
associates – have been on borrowed time. While they could lie to the West, to President
Obama, to Secretary of State Kerry, and to the EU foreign ministers that they
can move ahead, they always knew that Khamenei opposed the JCPOA. Now, at the
moment of truth, they feared to proceed.
Indeed, it was
logical for Khamenei to allow the Iranian negotiators to play along with the
P5+1, to see what they could get at no cost to Iran – since it was well known
that President Obama was dying for an agreement. But once Khamenei knew that
President Obama is standing firm on the last fragment of the original U.S.
position, either unwilling or unable to capitulate any further, Khamenei broke
his silence. Stepping in in the final act, Khamenei, deus-ex-machina style, dictated,
in a letter to President Rohani, nine new conditions for the JCPOA, and
declared that if these were not met Iran would stop the agreement.[8]
Actually,
Khamenei had issued an early warning in a September 3 speech,[9] in
which he said that all the sanctions must be lifted, not suspended, and that if
not, there would either be no agreement or Iran would also only
"suspend" its obligations. But President Obama did not yield. He cannot
override congressional sanctions; he can only issue a suspension via waiver. Politically
too, it might be too far for him to go to break his promise of the JCPOA's
built-in security mechanism – snapback of the sanctions. Obviously, snapback is
possible only if the sanctions remain in place under suspension. Therefore,
Khamenei, realizing that the sanctions would remain, also kept his promise and
blocked the agreement with new conditions, one of which – i.e. the lifting of
sanctions rather than suspension – he knows for sure cannot be met.
How Did The American
Media Describe Khamenei's Nine New Conditions?
Khamenei's letter to Rohani with
his conditions for the execution of the JCPOA – the publication of which coincided
with the days of the Ashura that are of vital religious and national
significance in Iran and symbolize steadfastness against the forces of evil –
was explicitly termed "conditional approval." It was labeled thus in
red letters, as posted on Khamenei's website in Persian, tweeted from his
Twitter account and posted on his Facebook page in English, and also published
in English by the official Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting authority IRIB.
But instead of reporting that at
this stage, and at present, Khamenei's approval is not given unless Khamenei's
conditions are met, the American media said that Khamenei had approved the
JCPOA. Would these members of the media also consider a purchase concluded if
they had not paid for it? The entire American media, without exception, left,
right, and center – as well as, apparently, all the U.S. intelligence agencies
and think tanks – claimed that Khamenei had approved the agreement. Only two
newspapers in the West wondered about the emperor's new clothes – but even they
did not shout "But he hasn't any clothes on at all!" They said only
that he was missing a couple of accessories.
Khamenei had
spoken, banning outright any implementation of the JCPOA by Iran until his new
conditions are met. The entire Iranian political system is hewing to this line –
including President Rohani, Foreign Minister Zarif, Majlis Speaker Larijani, a
majority of Majlis members (166), and more (for a full list to date, see Appendix
I).
Everyone, that
is, except for Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Khamenei's political rival and
head of Iran's pragmatic camp, who in an interview published this week by MEMRI
openly challenged Khamenei and said that Iran should abide by what it undertook
in the JCPOA.[10]
But this cannot
happen. Khamenei holds the reins.
Did the media
report on Rafsanjani's interview? No! But the media in Iran did (see Appendix
II). This, however, did not stop the editor of the Israeli daily Haaretz
from writing that the interview was faked.
This is a
well-known human reaction: When people stand before the complete collapse of
what they believe in, they enter a state of denial.
So What Now?
And what is President Obama to do,
as everything he has stood for in the Iran deal collapses so ignominiously? On
the right, they say he will continue to capitulate. In their ignorance, and in
their hatred of him, they fail to realize that he can simply surrender no
farther. OK, they say, so the IAEA will provide Obama with the necessary confirmation
by December 15 that the Iranians have done their part. But that is impossible
as well. What is demanded of Iran is gargantuan in scale, and it would be far
more difficult for the IAEA to fake confirmation when the Iranians themselves
are declaring loudly that they are not going to do it.
With every
passing day, Iran is more and more in violation of the JCPOA. But neither the
Republicans nor the Democrats, nor the media, nor anyone else will acknowledge
this, for the implications are too devastating. The agreement is no longer in
effect. Its clock has stopped.
But the weeks will
pass, and the media and politicians will be forced to admit that this is the
case. And the last thing they will be willing to do is to force Iran to meet
its obligations. Thus, it appears that President Obama's only option, shameful
as it is, is to restart the negotiations with the Iranians and talk with them
about their leaders' new conditions. As is well-known, this administration
advocates diplomacy – guaranteeing that there will be no breakthrough any time
soon.
This is
precisely what will serve President Obama best. All he needs to do is play for time
and reach the end of his term with an agreement in hand – albeit virtual – and
negotiations in progress – albeit unending. He will pass this situation on to
the next administration. The success will be all his, and the failure will be
all theirs. The media will zealously guard Obama's legacy, and his successor,
Republican or Democrat, will be too uninformed to protect him or herself from this
historic maneuver. And it will serve them right.
Appendix I: Senior
Iranian Officials Declare Their Acceptance Of Khamenei's Instructions On Implementing
The JCPOA
On October 10, 2015, Majlis
Speaker Ali Larijani said at a
conference on war and peace in Syria: "...The commands of the leader
[Khamenei], the decision of the Majlis and the Supreme National Security
Council will illuminate the government representatives' path on implementing
the JCPOA... I thank the leader with all my heart."[11]
On October 26, 2015, Foreign Minister Zarif referred in the Majlis to the supreme leader's letter on carrying out the JCPOA and noted: "I am grateful to the leader for his path-illuminating letter on setting policy in the JCPOA's implementation. His opinion always lighted the path to the nuclear negotiations team at the foreign ministry. Henceforward, we must make an effort to implement the JCPOA documents in the right way and following the leader's guidelines."[13]
On October 27, 2015, Zarif said that the modifications to the nuclear reactor in Arak must be performed after the PMD file has been closed at the IAEA and explained: "we calculated the details of re-planning the reactor following the leader's guidelines, the decision of the Supreme National Security Council and the Majlis... We will coordinate everything necessary for swapping the uranium stockpiles and this matter will be performed precisely in the way that the leader elaborated and was previously agreed at the Supreme National Security Council and the Majlis nuclear committee."[14]
In the Majlis, 166 members, constituting a majority, expressed on October 26, 2015 their admiration for the leader for his historic letter in implementing the JCPOA. The letter's contents read "... For a certainty, the Majlis representatives will act as your stout arms and collaborate with all the supervisory organizations and with the Supreme National Security Council and invest efforts to ensure that after the JCPOA, the enemy will not be able to penetrate our Islamic country even minutely and we will supervise that all violation of promises by the 5+1 group will not remain unanswered."[15]
Iran's Judiciary Chief Sadeq Amoli Larijani at an October 26, 2015 conference of senior judicial branch officials said that the letter of conditions that Khamenei published on JCPOA implementation should put an end to debates on the issue. He added: "All groups [within Iran] should treat the leader's letter as 'self-explanatory' and as the axis of unity and from now no they will make progress and think moderately about the future and the next stages of the JCPOA."[16]
The leader's representative in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Ali Saidi said on Wednesday, October 21, 2015: "... The leader is effectively managing the country according to the Koran and custom, the leader sets policy and the others execute it."[17]
At an October 27, 2015 press conference, the leader's advisor and the head of the Center for Strategic Research Ali Akbar Velayati, said: "In the last letter we saw that he criticized the defects and shortcomings in carrying out the JCPOA. I hope that the agreement will be carried out flawlessly in the future. The continued support of the leader for the JCPOA is contingent on the response to the letter that Khamenei wrote the president [Rohani]."[18]
The head of the Majlis nuclear committee, Ebrahim Karkhanehei, referring to the leader's letter on the JCPOA, said: "This letter produced social calm because in addition to leader the people as well demanded the things that were included in the letter. The most important issue in the letter is the issue of lifting sanctions and the government must seriously handle the matter of lifting the sanctions. In addition to the letter, the leader emphasized many times that if the sanctions are not lifted then there will be no agreement and therefore the US and the EU must fully lift the sanctions.
"The letter from the EU and the American president are not considered a [sufficiently] strong guarantee on the lifting of the sanctions. The Majlis will not be negligent about any clause in the leader's letter and the government must seriously oversee and handle the sanctions-lifting issue.
"The leader demanded that a professional and wise team should supervise the sound implementation of the JCPOA and therefore this team must be comprised of at least five people specializing in the legal, nuclear technical political, economic and the sanctions structure issues as well as an expert on security and defense matters."[19]
An October 25, 2015 Kayhan editorial titled "Giving Interpretations Is Impermissible" wrote: "The leader's order and the setting of numerous terms for the JCPOA's implementation is self-explanatory and elaborated a clear path for all arguments and worries, according to religious jurisprudence, the law and the professional perspective. It is obligatory and essential to obey it.. as opposed to some of the impressions, the leader approved the JCPOA's implementation only following obedience to the terms that may not be damaged and on principle, the leader did not express general approval on the matter."[20]
Appendix II: Iranian Websites Covering Rafsanjani's Interview In Inhnews.ir
*IRNA
*ILNA
*Hashemirafsanjani.ir.fa
*Etemaad
*ISNA
*Fars
*Tnews.ir
*Shomaokhabar
*Farsi-news
*Shafaf.ir
*ILNA
*Hashemirafsanjani.ir.fa
*Etemaad
*ISNA
*Fars
*Tnews.ir
*Shomaokhabar
*Farsi-news
*Shafaf.ir
*Y. Carmon is president and
founder of MEMRI.
Endnotes:
[1] For the complete text of the JCPOA see Eeas.europa.eu/statements-eeas/docs/iran_agreement/iran_joint-comprehensive-plan-of-action_en.pdf
[2] See
MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 6151, Khamenei
Declares That He Will Not Honor The Agreement If Sanctions Are Merely Suspended
And Not Lifted, September 4, 2015; and MEMRI TV Clip #5067 – Iranian
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei: The Americans Must Lift the Sanctions, Not Suspend
Them,
September 3, 2015.
[3] Unscr.com/en/resolutions/doc/2231.
[4] See
MEMRI TV Clip #5114 - Iranian
Guardian Council Secretary-General Ahmad Jannati: Khamenei Has Not Approved or
Signed the JCPOA, October 16, 2015; and MEMRI TV Clip #5117 – Iranian
Guardian Council Spokesman Nejatollah Ebrahimian: The JCPOA Was Not Approved by
the Majlis or the Guardian Council, October 18, 2015.
[5] Tasnim
(Iran), October 18, 2015.
[7] ISNA (Iran), October 18, 2015.
[8] On Khamenei's
nine demands, see MEMRI Inquiry & Analysis No. 1196, Iranian
Supreme Leader Khamenei's Letter Of Guidelines To President Rohani On JCPOA
Sets Nine Conditions Nullifying Original Agreement Announced July 14, 2015,
October 22, 2015.
[9] See MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 6151, Khamenei
Declares That He Will Not Honor The Agreement If Sanctions Are Merely Suspended
And Not Lifted , September 4, 2015.
[10] MEMRI Special Report
No.43, Breaking
Report: Challenging Khamenei, Rafsanjani Demands That Iran Fulfill Its
Obligations Under The JCPOA, And Reveals: We Had Nuclear Option In Iran-Iraq
War, October 28, 2015.
[11] Mehrnews.com, October 23,
2015.
[12] President.ir/fa/90172
[13] Isna (Iran), October 26,
2015.
[14] Isna (Iran), October 27,
2015.
[15] Mehrnews.com, October 26,
2015.
[16] Nasimonline.(Iran), October
26, 2015.
[17] Snn.(Iran), October 22,
2015.
[18] Isna (Iran), October 27,
2015.
[19] Mehrnews.com, October 26,
2015.
[20] Kayhan (Iran),
October 25, 2015.
Yigal Carmon is president and founder of MEMRI.
Source: http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/8833.htm
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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