by Prof. Eyal Zisser
After all, it wasn't the Russian planes or the Russian military police units deployed in Syria that determined the outcome -- it was the Iranians and their allies, Shiite volunteers and Hezbollah fighters.
This weekend, the voice
of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah rang out from Beirut in
celebration of another achievement. This time, the achievement pertains
to the battle for control over Lebanon's border with Syria, where
Hezbollah has been fighting the Nusra Front and Islamic State. In recent
years, the Nusra Front and Islamic State had entrenched themselves in
the border area, around the town of Arsal, launching terrorist attacks
and assaults from there on Hezbollah and Lebanese army targets in
Lebanon.
The Hezbollah offensive
-- in which the now U.S.-supported Lebanese army served as an onlooker
-- went well. When it was over, the Nusra Front agreed to decamp to
Syria, leaving a few lone ISIS operatives to fight a battle they never
had a chance of winning. On the heels of the military victory came an
ethnic cleansing of the area, with Hezbollah forcing Syrian refugees who
were sheltering there to go back to Syria. The Syrians were posing a
threat to Lebanon's delicate Sunni-Shiite demographic balance.
But Hezbollah's limited
achievement, which the organization's spokespeople are puffing up as a
divine victory and the first step toward a Hezbollah takeover of the
Galilee, is not a product of Hezbollah's abilities or might, but rather a
change in the strategic map of Syria.
A cautious look at what
is happening in Syria reveals that the seven-year-long war, the same
civil and jihadist war that has destroyed much of the country, is
approaching its end. Of course, we must be careful with predictions,
given the endless list of assessments forecasting the imminent and
inevitable downfall of Syrian President Bashar Assad, all of which
turned out to be wrong. But nevertheless, the direction in the past few
months has been clear. These days the fighting is winding down thanks to
the cease-fire deals brokered by Moscow and implemented throughout the
country, including in southern Syria, around the city of Daraa and along
the Israeli-Syrian border on the Golan Heights.
Thanks to Russia's
military might, but also to the weakness of the rebel allies, the
Russians have successfully quelled the revolt against Assad. U.S.
President Donald Trump's decision last month to discontinue the
assistance the CIA provided the Syrian rebels completed the picture.
Trump claims, rightly, that the American administration had wasted the
money, having seen no results. In many instances the aid reached the
wrong hands, or even ended up with groups that would change alliances
and join up with ISIS or the Nusra Front. But Trump's decision sent a
clear message: Washington is turning its back on the Syrian rebels, a
process of disengagement that will be completed when it is soon
announced that the Islamic State has been defeated (even if the group
stays active in the depth of the desert, threatening to break out again
in the future).
So Russia is the big
winner in the Syrian civil war. Its military forces are deployed
throughout the country, even in the south, near the border with Israel
and Jordan. Surprisingly, Russian soldiers are often welcomed by the
residents of the very villages that, until recently, were being bombed
to pieces by Russian planes. The locals in the Middle East value power,
and know what they need to do to survive in the impossible reality of
our region.
But the Russians
wouldn't have gotten as far as they have without Iran, which is still a
vital partner in Moscow's attempt to preserve the fragile calm in Syria.
After all, it wasn't the Russian planes or the Russian military police
units deployed in Syria that determined the outcome -- it was the
Iranians and their allies, Shiite volunteers and Hezbollah fighters.
Iran won't let its prey slip out of its hands any time soon, and it has
the patience to wait until the time is right to cash its chips. In the
meantime, Tehran is tightening its grip on the same areas that Russia
has freed up for it. It's a profitable deal: rather than positions along
the border with Israel, the Iranians will get a port on the Syrian
coast and an entire military setup from Damascus to the Iraqi border.
The reality in Syria and Lebanon has changed, and Israel, too, had better prepare for what comes next.
Prof. Eyal Zisser
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=19613
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