by Ariel Kahana
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu knows that the Palestinians are a bigger problem for Jordan than for Israel, and is willing to help King Abdullah as much as he can, quietly
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Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu, right, and King Abdullah
of Jordan shake hands
Photo: Kobi Gideon / GPO
Israel handles its relations with the Arab world in the shadows, like a forbidden romance.
On Monday, King Abdullah of Jordan hosted
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Amman. The meeting included many
participants. Abdullah and Netanyahu addressed several issues and even
signed a general agreement of some kind.
Nevertheless, the Jordan royal house did
not publicize the event. Unusually, the official photographer did not
post any pictures on Facebook. Even the Jordanian press release
characterized the meeting as a negative thing that had to be completed
as quickly as possible, stating: "Prime Minister Netanyahu left Jordan
after a short visit."
"Short" is apparently a relative term. The
meeting included discussions of matters existential to Jordan and very
important to Israel. Mossad head Yossi Cohen, Netanyahu's economic
adviser Avi Simhon, military attache Brig. Gen. Eliezer Toledano, and
other advisers were part of the prime minister's team. Cohen's Jordanian
counterpart, Adnan Jundi, was also there, as was Jordanian Foreign
Minister Ayman Safadi, and many others of the king's advisers. When a
group like this meets, it is obvious that they are talking business, not
merely making conversation.
The two leaders discussed Syrian President
Bashar Assad's likely return to the Syrian Golan Heights, a development
that could send another wave of refugees into Jordan and the Golan – to
Israel's dismay – into the hands of Iranian militias. Abdullah and
Netanyahu coordinated on the "deal of the century," which advisers to
U.S. President Donald Trump are once again here to promote. They agreed
that Jordan would retain its position of responsibility for the Temple
Mount. If the king is a "mentsch" (a good guy), and people say he is, he
would also have thanked Netanyahu for Israel's special help recently on
a matter that is still under a censorship blackout.
Jordan is mired in a deep economic crisis.
The two leaders agreed that Israel would lift a few restraints that have
made it difficult for Jordan to sell produce in Judea and Samaria. This
is not the only recent contribution to Jordan's economy, either: Two
weeks ago, Saudi Arabia announced it would provide $2 billion in aid to
the Jordanians. Rumor has it that Israel had a hand in that deal.
It is clear that after a brief attempt to
move closer to the Syrian-Iranian axis, Abdullah has come back to the
Sunni side these past few weeks. Israel has a common denominator with
Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf states, all staunch opponents of Iran.
These are the deep currents flowing underneath the first meeting
between the two leaders in four years.
But very little can be said about everything that went on behind the scenes. That's how it is when lovers meet in secret.
The Palestinian portfolio
The immense gap between what the Israelis,
the Arabs, and the Americans say to each other behind closed doors and
the front they put up is the biggest challenge facing Trump's Middle
East advisers Jared Kushner and Jason Greenblatt. This week, they both
toured the region in an attempt to push "the deal of the century," "the
ultimate deal," "historic peace," or whatever else they are calling
their Israeli-Palestinian peace deal. The two envoys have already
visited Cairo, Amman and Doha. They are slated to hold meetings in
Jerusalem, but they will not be going to Ramallah – Palestinian
Authority President Mahmoud Abbas refuses to meet with them.
Kushner and Greenblatt are identifying what
anyone with clear vision can see: that the Israeli-Arab bloc is about
to come out into the open, and that everyone is fed up with the
Palestinians' tricks. Saudi Arabia, the heavyweight in the Sunni bloc,
does not care what is said on the paper it will be submitting to the
Americans. As a defense official told this reporter this week, the paper
could be blank, for all the Saudis care. The main thing is to present a
document that Abbas signs. The Saudis simply want to advance the
regional struggle against Iran, under the auspices of the Americans. As
far as they are concerned, the Palestinians can go to hell.
Jordan's current approach is not much
different. If it were up to Abdullah and his advisers, they would
strangle Palestinian nationalism with their bare hands. With
Palestinians comprising two-thirds of the inhabitants of the kingdom,
the Palestinian issue is a bigger threat to the Jordanians than it is to
Israel.
And given Jordan's limping economy, the
million Syrian refugees already in the country with more arriving and no
end in sight, the Muslim Brotherhood breathing down the king's neck,
neighboring Iraq bleeding and neighboring Syria falling apart, and
especially the mass protests in Jordanian streets, Abdullah needs to be
very careful. He must, or at least thinks he must, distance himself from
Israel and swear allegiance to a Palestinian state three times a day,
even though he wants it even less than Israel does. If he doesn't, his
father's house is in trouble. Anyone who talks with the Jordanians hears
that this is what is going on. Publicly, Israel is kept at arm's
length, but the two countries are drawing closer privately. Exactly the
opposite of what they are doing with the Palestinians.
Israel sees the potential collapse of the
Hashemite kingdom as a nightmare. So it agrees to keep the bilateral
ties quiet and give the king all the help it can, and is willing to
accept the official line that "Netanyahu left after a short visit." For
Netanyahu, pragmatism trumps honor.
This is not Korea
Will Kushner and Greenblatt do the
incredible and pull the curtain back on the silent alliance? With
President Donald Trump over them, we can never say this will not happen.
But it appears that no matter what the
"ultimate deal" entails, it will follow in the footsteps of the deals
that came before it. Abbas is giving the Americans a cold shoulder, so
the only possibility of a breakthrough is for the Sunni bloc to force
the deal on him. Sadly, that scenario looks unlikely. If the king of
Jordan is unwilling to publish a picture of himself and Netanyahu
meeting at the royal palace, what chance is there that he will stand
shoulder to shoulder with him at an international conference from which
the dying Abbas is absent?
The prevailing assumption in Israel is that
while Trump might have performed miracles in Korea, he will not succeed
in the Middle East. Sooner or later, the deal will be read and the
question will arise of what happens the day after it is signed. At least
some cabinet ministers are already busy with that question. Everyone is
assuming that Israel has a historic two-year window, from the time the
deal dies until the end of Trump's first term.
At this stage, no one has an orderly plan.
Behind closed doors, the same ideas are being floated that have been
discussed since this government came into power: Israeli sovereignty in
Judea and Samaria, widespread settlement construction, and so on.
Of course, at the end of the day everything
depends on the laundry list Netanyahu presents to Trump at the
beginning of 2019. For years, the prime minister hesitated over any
suggestion of annexing territories. Will he change his mind this time?
Ariel Kahana
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/2018/06/22/a-quiet-affair/
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