by Yaakov Lappin
Syrian media reports of Israeli airstrikes, allegedly launched early on March 5 in central and southern Syria, may be a sign that Damascus has renewed its chemical weapons program
Israeli F161s flying in formation, photo via IDF Flickr CC
BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 1,506, March 26, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Syrian
media reports of Israeli airstrikes, allegedly launched early on March 5
in central and southern Syria, may be a sign that Damascus has renewed
its chemical weapons program.
According to Yediot Ahronot, one
of the targets hit by Israeli airstrikes in central Syria in early March
is believed to have been a chemical weapons production facility. Tel
Aviv University Professor Eyal Zisser states that if this report is
true, it is a sign that the Syrian regime is still developing chemical
weapons despite efforts by the international community to dismantle
Damascus’s program.
There have been concerns among international
observers that Syria has restarted its chemical program. The regime led
by Syrian President Bashar Assad has repeatedly used chemical weapons
against its own Sunni citizens to conduct mass slaughter throughout the
civil war.
Other targets hit in the alleged Israeli strikes
appeared to include terror cell positions in southern Syria that Iran
and Hezbollah were setting up as part of their long-term effort to
create strike capabilities against Israel.
Such strikes appear to be a reflection of the fact
that the Iranian policy of military and terrorist entrenchment in Syria
remains in place, despite likely disapproval from Russia, the senior
partner in the pro-Assad coalition. Moscow has its own vision for Syria,
and it does not include Iranian domination.
Under the leadership of the late Iranian Quds
Force commander, Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the Iranians deployed
advanced weapons such as cruise missiles to Syria and attempted to crate
precision-guided missile bases throughout the country with which to
threaten Israel.
Israel has made it clear, through word and deed,
that it will not tolerate the presence of such weapons in either Syria
or Lebanon and is prepared to take military action to stop it.
After years of fighting in a brutal civil war that
has cost the lives of more than half a million people, the Assad regime
has regained more than 70% of Syrian territory, with the assistance of
the Iranian axis and Russian air power. Syria continues to host Iranian
forces that view their intervention in the civil war as an opportunity
to turn Syria into a military attack platform against Israel.
The new Quds Force chief, Maj. Gen. Esmail Ghaani,
replaced Soleimani after his killing by US drone strike on Jan. 3 in
Baghdad—an attack that replenished American deterrence in the region and
caused the Iranians to recalibrate their thinking on attacks on US
forces or interests.
Still, it’s too soon to tell how Ghaani’s leadership will affect Iranian actions in Syria, particularly when it comes to Israel.
“Soleimani set up the outline, and this is
continuing,” said Zisser. “I don’t think Ghaani has yet had a chance to
have his own influence. I assume this [the latest Iranian activities in
Syria] is a continuation of what has occurred in the past, and that
Ghaani is, in the meantime, continuing without a dramatic, sharp change
in the trend. We’ll have to continue to wait for that.”
Growing tensions between Tehran and Ankara
Meanwhile, the shaky truce agreed upon by Turkey
and Russia in Syria’s Idlib region, designed to halt combat between
Turkish and Assad regime forces, looks uncertain. Almost a million
people have been forced out of their homes in the past three months as
Damascus and its allies seek to retake the last zone under rebel control
in northwest Syria.
The subsequent fighting has seen deadly exchanges
of fire between the Turkish military, which is backing some of the rebel
groups, and the Assad regime and its allied militias. There are no
immediate implications of this fighting for Israel, but the growing
tensions between Ankara and Tehran are a geostrategic development worth
watching from an Israeli perspective, argued Zisser.
“The fact that the matter was not immediately
settled shows the limits of Russia’s power,” he said. “And therefore,
this also means that Israel still has a window of opportunity to
continue to act in Syria” against Iranian entrenchment.
This is an edited version of an article published by JNS on March 10, 2020.
Source: https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/has-syria-reactivated-its-chemical-weapons-program/
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