by Ahmed Quraishi
The Taliban has so far avoided announcing a unilateral government in Kabul, possibly to give a chance to backchannel diplomacy to clinch a deal for a power-sharing arrangement.
The entire opposition to the Taliban has landed in Pakistan on Monday in a significant move for Afghanistan's future, as fresh details on the spectacular turn of events in Kabul over the weekend paint a picture of widespread disgruntlement within former President Ashraf Ghani's government leading to his downfall and eventual escape from the country.
The almost peaceful takeover of Kabul and key Afghan cities, lack of Taliban reprisals against pro-government elements in seized territories, and minimal combat and displacement of civilians, all are signs that strengthen speculation that deposed Afghan president's inner circle might have helped ease him out and – at least indirectly – ensure that Taliban moved in with minimal bloodshed.
All is not lost, yet: a delegation of top Afghan politicians that fought the Taliban in the 1990s – in the now-defunct Northern Alliance – are in Islamabad to explore the possibility of a power-sharing agreement and a transitional government. The delegation include speaker Ulusi Jirga Mir Rehman Rehmani, Salah-ud-din Rabbani, Mohammad Yunus Qanooni, Ustad Mohammad Karim Khalili, Ahmad Zia Massoud and Ahmad Wali Massoud (both immediate family members of legendary warlord Ahmad Shah Massoud, Abdul Latif Pedram, and Khalid Noor. They were all allies of the deposed president but now seek an inclusive transitional government that Ghani delayed for months despite American and Pakistani prodding.
This Afghan delegation is expected to depart for Doha in the next few hours to meet with the representatives of the Taliban political office in Qatar.
This delegation's visit to Pakistan and expected meeting with Taliban officials in Qatar represents a last-ditch effort to prevent a widescale eruption of a civil war reminiscent of the 1990s, pitching the Taliban and the mujahideen warlords opposed to it. There are indications that Pakistan is engaging Iran and Russia to preempt a situation where Tehran and Moscow could be dragged into supporting their old proxies in the Northern Alliance in a renewed conflict. Tehran, Moscow, and New Delhi backed the Northern Alliance in the 1990s against the Taliban which was widely seen as being backed by Pakistan, the United States, and Gulf allies.
In Islamabad, officials are deflecting questions about extending recognition to a Taliban government, if one is declared. "It is premature to discuss this, and the international community is assessing the situation," a senior Pakistani official said in a background briefing. "Pakistan is in step with our partners in the international community on the evolving situation in Afghanistan."
Despite the alarm over the Taliban's swift seizure of Kabul and Afghan territories, there are some positive signs that diplomats in Islamabad, Kabul, Doha, and Washington are trying to build on to prevent an Afghan civil war. The Taliban are interested in a relationship with the United States and eye international recognition. Some of the early incidents of human rights violations in the Taliban's campaign last week have given way to what appears to be some restraint, in a calculated move to avoid bad international publicity.
The Taliban has so far avoided announcing a unilateral government in Kabul, possibly to give a chance to backchannel diplomacy to clinch a deal for a power-sharing arrangement. These early signs give hope that lack of bloodshed so far can be translated into first steps toward stability in a wartorn nation. If these efforts fail, a resumption of civil war means a wider proxy conflict that will rearrange the regional chessboard for years to come.
Ahmed Quraishi
Source: https://www.israelhayom.com/opinions/the-next-step-in-afghanistan-agreement-or-civil-war/
No comments:
Post a Comment