Turkey’s Internal Crisis and Strategic Expansion - Oded Ailam

 

by Oded Ailam

The U.S. has avoided confrontation with Erdogan. Washington remains deeply concerned about Turkey’s potential pivot toward the Sino-Russian axis and seeks to keep Ankara loosely tethered to the NATO framework.

 

The Turkish submarine TCG Anafartalar. (NATO/Flickr)

Institute for Contemporary Affairs

Founded jointly with the Wechsler Family Foundation

Vol. 25, No. 8

• The recent wave of protests, sparked by the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu – President Erdogan’s most formidable political rival – has exposed the fragility of political stability in Turkey. Yet Erdogan, who still controls the military, judiciary, and most of the media, has shown a remarkable capacity to outmaneuver his opponents.
• The U.S. has avoided confrontation with Erdogan. Washington remains deeply concerned about Turkey’s potential pivot toward the Sino-Russian axis and seeks to keep Ankara loosely tethered to the NATO framework.
• For Europe, Turkey has positioned itself as a buffer against mass migration. Turkey also holds substantial leverage over Germany and France, both of which maintain large Turkish diaspora populations and economic ties. As such, Israel cannot afford to rely on European alignment against Turkey.
• Erdogan is seeking to secure dominance in Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean. In Syria, Turkey’s aim is not merely anti-Kurdish containment or border security, but to carve out a sphere of influence reaching toward the Israeli frontier – a neo-Ottoman corridor of Sunni control.
• Turkey’s maritime expansion is central to Erdogan’s vision. It is no longer about defense, but projection – of force, prestige, and deterrence. Six submarines, co-produced with Germany, are scheduled to be fully operational by 2027. A domestically built light aircraft carrier, TCG Anadolu, is nearing completion.
• These advancements have serious implications for Israel. Submarines could loiter undetected near Israeli offshore gas rigs or communication cables, while surface vessels could disrupt shipping lanes, intimidate energy exploration efforts, or impede undersea infrastructure development.
• Turkey’s naval assertiveness opens a new front for Israel. The Eastern Mediterranean has long been treated as a secure flank. That assumption no longer holds. Israel faces increased risks to energy security, trade flows, and maritime sovereignty.

What connects the demonstrators in Istanbul’s Saraçhane Square with the quiet descent of Turkish submarines into the depths of the Eastern Mediterranean? This connection, far from coincidental, encapsulates the essence of Turkey’s evolving geostrategic calculus under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. As domestic unrest grows, Erdoğan is redirecting national tension outward – crafting an ambitious regional posture that places Israel, among others, at the heart of its implications.

Internal Volatility and the Strategic Turn

The recent wave of protests, sparked by the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu – Erdoğan’s most formidable political rival – has exposed the fragility of political stability in Turkey. Saraçhane Square has become more than just a protest site; it is now a symbol of the growing tension between authoritarian consolidation and democratic resistance.

While the situation remains fluid and it is far too early to predict whether the crisis will topple Erdoğan’s regime, one fact is clear: the indictment may paradoxically bolster Erdoğan in the short term, serving as a tool to galvanize his base, suppress dissent, and reassert control over strategic urban centers like Istanbul.

Erdoğan, who still controls the military, judiciary, and most of the media, has shown a remarkable capacity to outmaneuver his opponents. He has created private loyalist militias, purged state institutions, and bent constitutional checks in his favor. But with legitimacy eroding, he now turns outward – seeking geopolitical gains to compensate for domestic fractures.

Western Silence: Between Strategy and Complicity

While Erdoğan’s authoritarian slide has been well documented, Western responses have been notably restrained. The United States has avoided confrontation. Washington remains deeply concerned about Turkey’s potential pivot toward the Sino-Russian axis and seeks to keep Ankara loosely tethered to the NATO framework.

Europe, for its part, is even more constrained. Turkey is home to millions of migrant workers from the Middle East and North Africa, and has positioned itself as Europe’s buffer against mass migration. It holds substantial leverage over the EU, including Germany and France, both of which maintain large Turkish diaspora populations and economic ties. European leaders, invested in economic and security arrangements, remain wary of provoking a rupture with Ankara. As such, Israel cannot afford to rely on European alignment against Turkey. The EU’s deep investments in Turkish labor, energy infrastructure, and migration management make any united European front highly unlikely.

Recalibrating the Regional Chessboard: Turkey’s Twin Fronts

Erdoğan’s outward pivot follows a clear strategy – securing dominance in two primary arenas: Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean.

In Syria, Turkey has moved to entrench its military presence, leveraging bases like Tiyas (T-4) and Menagh. The aim is not merely anti-Kurdish containment or border security, but to carve out a sphere of influence reaching toward the Israeli frontier – a neo-Ottoman corridor of Sunni control. In this, Erdoğan sees an opportunity to assert Turkey’s claim to regional leadership.

An intriguing development is Ankara’s cautious warming of ties with Cairo. Despite years of friction, particularly after the 2013 ousting of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, recent diplomacy points toward normalization. However, Egypt is unlikely to join a formal alliance with Turkey. Rather, what we are likely to witness is incremental cooperation and improved dialogue, particularly in areas of mutual interest such as energy and maritime security. This trajectory must be closely monitored, as it could shift regional dynamics in unexpected ways.

Maritime Strategy: Aiming for Regional Naval Superiority

Turkey’s maritime expansion is central to Erdoğan’s vision. It is no longer about defense, but projection – of force, prestige, and deterrence. The Turkish Navy is undergoing a transformation:

• Six AIP-enabled Type-214 submarines, co-produced with Germany, are scheduled to be fully operational by 2027.
• A domestically built light aircraft carrier, TCG Anadolu, is nearing completion and will likely deploy UAVs such as the Bayraktar TB3.
• Enhanced electronic warfare, anti-ship missiles, and long-range surface assets are bolstering Ankara’s blue-water capabilities.

These advancements have serious implications for Israel. Submarines could loiter undetected near Israeli offshore gas rigs or communication cables, while surface vessels could disrupt shipping lanes, intimidate energy exploration efforts, or impede undersea infrastructure development.

Past Precedents: When Turkey Flexed Its Naval Muscle

This is not hypothetical. In 2019, Turkey sent warships to escort drilling vessels into Cyprus’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), prompting a diplomatic crisis with the EU and Greece. In 2021, the Mavi Vatan (“Blue Homeland”) naval exercise simulated blockades and naval strikes across the Eastern Mediterranean – specifically near Israeli and Greek energy assets.

Such operations highlight the strategic role of the Turkish Navy as an instrument of coercive diplomacy. This is not a defensive doctrine, but an assertive blueprint for regional influence.

Israel in the Crosshairs: Adjusting the Strategic Equation

For Israel, Turkey’s naval assertiveness opens a new front. The Eastern Mediterranean has long been treated as a secure flank. That assumption no longer holds. As Erdoğan tests boundaries – both literal and diplomatic – Israel faces increased risks to energy security, trade flows, and maritime sovereignty.

The prospect of a closer Ankara-Cairo relationship, even if limited, could restrict Israel’s operational and diplomatic flexibility. Where Egypt once acted as a quiet partner, it may become a more neutral or unpredictable player.

Policy Recommendations: Balancing Resolve and Restraint

In this evolving reality, Israel must avoid overreaction – but equally, cannot afford complacency. A multi-pronged policy is required:

1. Upgrade Israeli naval capabilities, focusing on anti-submarine warfare, maritime cyber defense, and undersea infrastructure protection.
2. Enhance trilateral cooperation with Greece and Cyprus, possibly formalizing a joint naval task force to deter Turkish encroachment.
3. Strengthen real-time intelligence sharing with NATO-aligned forces, especially the United States, France, and Italy, to monitor Turkish deployments.
4. Apply strategic leverage in Washington, especially in Congress and the Pentagon, to promote accountability in U.S.-Turkey defense relations.
5. Preserve quiet diplomatic backchannels with Ankara, to manage crises and prevent miscalculations.
6. Invest in regional economic diplomacy, tying Israel’s energy projects and shipping routes to broader multilateral frameworks that reinforce shared interests and mutual deterrence.

Conclusion: Critical Weeks Ahead

The coming weeks are critical in determining the trajectory of Turkish politics. While the current crisis exposes Erdoğan’s vulnerability, if he weathers it – as he has others – he is likely to emerge emboldened, with even fewer internal constraints on his foreign policy ambitions.

His naval strategy, far from a vanity project, is part of a long-term vision for regional preeminence – one that places Turkish submarines off Gaza, and Turkish influence at the doorstep of Israeli strategic interests.

Israel must read this moment with clarity: The tides in the Eastern Mediterranean are shifting. It must steer with precision, fortify its deterrence posture, and prepare for a maritime future where power, not proximity, dictates stability

Oded Ailam is a former head of the Counterterrorism Division in the Mossad and is currently a researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs (JCFA).

Source: https://jcpa.org/article/turkeys-internal-crisis-and-strategic-expansion/

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