by Dr. Reuven Berko
The Islamic-Arab world
is currently undergoing dramatic changes. The Middle East has never been
a place where balance has prevailed, but is rather a place driven by
megalomaniacal ambitions and religious, territorial and economical
motives, fostering violent unrest in the region; and now, the artificial
countries built on the ruins of the Ottoman Empire are imploding before
our very eyes.
The chaos bred by the
Arab Spring has resulted in many Arab nations being overrun by gangs
affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas or various Islamic Jihad
"tourists." These terrorists have condemned the fate of millions in
Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Yemen and Egypt, they threaten other countries
in the Middle East and Africa, and they now have their sights trained
on us.
From an Israeli
standpoint, some of the neighboring Arab countries, which were
previously ruled by Islamic tyrants or totalitarian rulers, were --
prior to the Arab Spring -- deterred, as any act of hostility they might
have endorsed would have spelled retaliation against to their country
and citizens, and therefore threaten their rule. The basis of this
deterrence still seems to be in place and still seem effective when it
comes to Iran's nuclear endeavors, Hamas and Hezbollah.
The appearance of
"jihad tourists" in the Middle East as a new form of armed regimes in
neighboring territories, poses a challenge to the premise and perception
of warning, deterrence and decision reached by exercising military
power alongside diplomatic efforts, as outlined by Thomas Schelling, in
his 1966 book "Arms and Influence."
These "tourists" are
usually anonymous, armed individuals, flocking to conflict areas from
different locations around the world. They are often at odds with each
other as well as with the regime, and they murder, plunder and rape "in
the name of Islam." They have no individual, tribal of national
affiliation with the population they overrun, nor do they consider any
backlash against it. They simply feed off its pain.
A "jihad tourist" who
may find himself in Syria or in the Palestinian Authority (should the
border with Jordan be abandoned) will therefore feel relatively safe
from retaliation and punishment within the framework of traditional
deterrence measures -- more so than Palestinian terrorists, who operate
from within their tribes and families in the Palestinian territories.
The Arabs' history has
experience such bloodshed before. In the pre-Islamic days of the
Jahiliyyah Arab tribes would often rise against each other and only the
concept of vendetta created a tribal mechanism of deterrence. With the
rise of the Prophet Muhammad, the tribes that converted to Islam turned
their rage against others "in the name of Islam." The deterring
principle of vendetta as key to tribal coexistence and personal safety
was maintained throughout the Jahiliyyah and in the Islamic era that
followed.
As part of the thar
(vengeance), the avenging party would target a male relation of an
escaped killer, on his father's side, down to a fifth relation, and it
was this fear of vengeance that reinforced mutual deterrence. As Western
principles negate to concept of vendetta and murderers are set free as
part of plea bargains and exchange deals, many Arab and Muslim men, who
believe that "prison is for men," are left undeterred by anything.
The anonymity of "jihad
tourists" in conflict areas and the fact that they are far away from
their tribes and families, affords them -- in their own eyes -- a
license to murder rivals and civilians alike without paying a price. As
vendetta is considered heinous by the West, each such "mujahid" is
essentially an "invisible man," with the "privilege" of getting away
with murder without exposing his family to the threat of vendetta.
The response mounted by
the West to the security challenges arising from the Arab-Islamic modus
operandi has exposed a weakness in assessing processes such as the Arab
Spring.
The fact of the matter
is that the actions of opposing leaders or populations are propelled by a
"state of mind," which includes a leader's philosophical beliefs as
well as his country's religious, historical and national narratives, all
of which serve as a compass for him and are instrumental in realizing
his ideas.
In the absence of state
frameworks, there is a need for intelligence gathering and individual
punitive action against such murderers. The skewed assessments of
developing situations in the Middle East are still based on a "mirror
image" of values and ethics, which do not coincide with reality.
Those who demand Israel release
murderers and exercise "proportionality" are trying to deprive it from
the ability to achieve victory and deterrence against a growing threat.
The only thing that may deter a "terror tourist" is the personal
elimination of him or an intelligence exposure that frightens his
family.
Dr. Reuven Berko
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=8081
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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