by Yoav Limor
It is rare that eliminating one person can change everything, but Syrian missile scientist Aziz Azbar was not only a source of knowledge, but trusted by both Iran and Hezbollah. He will not be easily replaced.
The
final stage of the Syrian civil war offers an opportunity, maybe the
last one, for any entity that wants to eliminate threats without paying
too high a price. The moment the war officially ends, which will happen
soon, everything will become more complicated, from airstrikes to
assassinations.
It is likely that this played a part in the killing of Syrian scientist Aziz Azbar
over the weekend. The operation combined tactical and intelligence
capabilities and a cost-benefit analysis. It took considerable time to
gather the necessary intelligence, and the action needed to be precise,
not only to ensure that it took out the target, but also to prevent
collateral damage. The operational side was simpler, especially in light
of the plethora of weapons available and the number of operatives in
Syria looking for action.
The decision-making process for an
operation like this one is complex. The rebel factions in Syria are
uninhibited and would have acted without hesitation. But despite their
claim of responsibility for the killing, it is unlikely they were behind
it, not because they feel pity for the life of any Syrian official, but
because Azbar was not an attractive target to them and was not worth
the effort, certainly not as they are battling with their last breath.
It is more likely that others were more
interested in Azbar's activities. He was a senior missile engineer, No. 3
in the Syrian weapons industry, a close associate of Syrian President
Bashar Assad and the point where Iranian-Syrian-Hezbollah weapons
interests converged.
For years, that weapons axis has been a
focal point for Israel because of Hezbollah's attempts to arm itself,
and because of the additional effort this past year to establish and arm
Iranian militias in Syria. Azbar oversaw missile production in Syria,
and according to foreign reports was recently involved in laying the
groundwork for missile production in Lebanon as well. For Israel, this
is a critical issue. According to the same reports, Israel took care to
strike the weapons convoys on Syrian soil, before they entered Lebanon,
to avoid an escalation with Hezbollah, which had made it clear that it
would consider a strike in Lebanese territory to be a casus belli.
The manufacture of missiles in Lebanon, if
it begins, would eliminate the need for weapons convoys and would allow
Hezbollah to build its capabilities without concern. Taking Azbar out of
the game will not stop anyone in Lebanon from gaining the ability to
make their own missiles, but will definitely complicate things for Iran
and Hezbollah, because he was not only a source of knowledge, but also
someone both sides trusted. It will take time to find a replacement.
This is another stage in a long battle, as
was the series of strikes in Syria attributed to Israel, at least three
of which targeted the factory where Azbar worked. It is rare that
killing one person changes everything, but in a war of shadows like this
one, any delay caused to the other side, any time they are forced to
suspect that they might have a mole, and every failure to acquire
weapons staves off the threat, and by doing so keeps the next war at
bay.
Yoav Limor
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/opinions/neutralized-at-the-last-minute/
Follow Middle East and Terrorism on Twitter
No comments:
Post a Comment