by Oded Granot
While reported sabotage attempts will not stop the Iranian nuclear program in its tracks, they can slow it down. With the nuclear deal looming, careful monitoring of the Islamic republic's actions is crucial.
A spokesmen for the regime claimed that this was a serious violation of "freedom of expression" and implicitly threatened that the move would jeopardize the chances of reaching a new nuclear deal.
This, of course, is a hollow threat meant to do little more than create a smoke scene over the fact that the deal is looming. Case in point: while this warning was issued, a senior Iranian official said that the US has agreed to lift over 1,000 sanctions imposed on Iran by the Trump administration.
Moreover, the Iranian official said, the various financial details of the deal have been finalized.
While Washington has yet to confirm the Iranian statements, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has already reassured congress that "hundreds of other sanctions" will remain in place even after a deal is inked, and until such time as Iran relinquish[es] its bad behavior.
Those seeking to delve into the subtext on Blinken's remarks could conclude that said "bad behavior" – namely the continued development of ballistic missiles and support for militias throughout the Middle East – did not even come up in the negotiations in Vienna, as Iran strongly claims.
Israeli officials trying to closely monitor the nuclear negotiations, share the assessment that most of the economic issues have indeed been agreed between the parties, and that the sanctions that will be lifted are mostly related to Iran's oil industry.
Reports coming from Iran show that in recent months, the Iranians have doubled their oil production and their tankers are just waiting for the go order. The first beneficiary of the nuclear deal, after the Islamic Republic itself, will be China, which will receive oil at bottom-of-the-barrel prices under the civilian and military aid agreement it signed with Iran, worth $400 billion over 25 years.
The fifth round of talks in Vienna ended earlier this week and the delegations have returned to their countries for final consultations. The sixth round may be the last one before a new accord is signed.
In this short period of time between negotiation rounds, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi and outgoing President Reuven Rivlin are trying to persuade Washington to insist on strict oversight and crippling sanctions in the event Iran violates the deal. Their success, however, is not guaranteed.
On the other hand, the chances that the Iranians will agree to have any restriction placed on their ballistic missile program or support to militias across the Middle East is nonexistent.
This sensitive timing, with the agreement imminent, it is clear that the minimum required is to continue to make every effort to delay Iran's dash toward a bomb in any way possible.
On Wednesday, the Iranians admitted that someone tried to sabotage a nuclear facility west of Tehran. They claim that the facility was not damaged, but then again, they said as much after the centrifuges in Natanz were crippled last year.
Such sabotage attempts will not stop the Iranian nuclear program in its tracks but they can slow it down. The Iranians will not easily give up the bomb or the ballistic missiles program.
Oded Granot
Source: https://www.israelhayom.com/opinions/every-step-to-curtail-iran-is-vital/
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