by Seth J. Frantzman
This is not the first time a deal has failed to reach the second stage. The January 2025 deal also didn’t reach the second phase.
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The release of the 20 living hostages on Monday marked a significant moment for Israel. The question now is whether Hamas will fulfill its obligations to return the 28 bodies of hostages from Gaza.
Four of the bodies have been transferred to Israel, but many more remain to be released. When the deal was signed on October 8, there were already reports suggesting that advancing beyond its first phase would be difficult.
Some reports have claimed that Hamas is unable to locate all the bodies of the hostages, while others imply that neither Hamas nor Israeli leaders are eager to proceed to phase two.
This is not the first time a deal has failed to reach the second stage. A January 2025 deal also faltered, with Israel opting to resume fighting in March. However, US President Donald Trump, alongside leaders and delegations from 20 countries, gathered in Egypt on Monday to push the deal forward.
What comes next? Al-Ain media reported that Hamas is keen to retain its weapons, considering them "off-limits," although under Trump’s plan, Hamas is supposed to disarm. “Discussions of other issues have been postponed until after the hostages are handed over. The clause regarding Hamas’s surrender of its weapons was included in the Trump plan, but a Hamas official said Saturday that the demand to disarm the Palestinian faction was ‘out of discussion,’” Al-Ain noted.
Sisi praises Trump, giving him Order of the Nile award
According to Arab News, “the summit in Egypt was aimed at supporting the ceasefire reached in Gaza, ending the Israel-Hamas war and developing a long-term vision to rebuild the devastated Palestinian territory. Trump’s plan holds out the possibility of a Palestinian state, but only after a lengthy transition period in Gaza and a reform process by the internationally recognized Palestinian Authority. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu opposes Palestinian independence.”Sisi praised Trump and gave him an award called the Order of the Nile. “But major questions remain over what happens next, raising the risk of a slide back into war. The gathering reflects the international will to follow through on the deal,” the Arab News report noted. “More than 20 world leaders attended the summit, including King Abdullah of Jordan, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, the French president, and the British prime minister.”
A second Arab News report examined the prospects for progress, emphasizing that while the peace may be celebrated, it is still only the start of a process. "Analysts cautioned that the jubilation could prove short-lived. The peace, for now, is merely procedural - the beginning of a process rather than its conclusion," the report stated. It quoted Egyptian author and academic Hani Nasira, who said the Sharm El-Sheikh summit was "a high-level international conference convened … to sustain the Gaza ceasefire and finalize an agreement to end the war and start a new chapter for peace and stability in the region."
Nasira further explained, "The US participation is seen as a diplomatic push to secure international commitment to a peace roadmap that includes a declaration of long-term stability and expanded Arab and global engagement…[the challenge is] overcoming internal Palestinian divisions and restoring national consensus,” which he noted was essential for "capitalizing on growing international recognition of the State of Palestine and turning that recognition into tangible progress on the ground."
An Al-Arabiya report also pointed out the difficulty of returning all the deceased hostages. The Red Cross stated that this process would take time, calling it a "huge challenge" due to the difficulty of finding bodies amid Gaza’s rubble. This raises questions about why the Red Cross did not do more throughout the war.
Christian Cardon, a spokesman for the International Committee of the Red Cross, stated, “The return of the remains of hostages and detainees killed in the war on the Gaza Strip will take time, describing the matter as a ‘huge challenge’ given the difficulty of finding bodies amid the rubble of Gaza.”
Meanwhile, another article from Al-Arabiya reported that “the Israeli security establishment opposes the opening of the Rafah crossing. Sources confirm.” The report added that “after the European Commission announced on Monday the resumption of the European observer mission at the Rafah crossing, on the border between Egypt and the Gaza Strip, Israeli reports indicated objections.”
These reports highlight the ongoing challenges, including the need to return the deceased hostages, the opening of the Rafah crossing, the return of armed Hamas members, and the international community’s willingness to stay committed.
Seth J. Frantzman
Source: https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-870412
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