by Seth J. Frantzman
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s upcoming visit to Washington will prioritize defense, trade, and security, marking a new chapter in US-Saudi relations.
 |
Saudi Arabia is preparing for an important visit by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to Washington on Tuesday. A number of items are on the agenda. This is expected to be a crowning achievement for Riyadh, following years of collaboration with the Trump administration and its predecessors.
While many may be focused on the question of Saudi Arabia acquiring F-35s and whether it will normalize with Israel, the messaging from Riyadh appears to downplay these issues. In fact, Saudi Arabia appears to have a message that the meetings in Washington are about much larger ties with the US.
This involves defense, trade, energy, and security. Those who think it’s just F-35s or normalization with Israel will likely be surprised. Here is what to watch for:
Various reports say that this visit will “center on defense, nuclear power, technology, and Israel,” according to DW. Faisal J. Abbas is the Editor-in-Chief of Arab News, wrote this weekend that this visit could set the course for the next 80 years of US-Saudi ties.
This is important because Riyadh looks at the long term. When it looks at the long term it looks back at ties with the US going back a century. It also looks at what comes next.
This set the stage at the time for Riyadh breaking relations with Qatar during the Gulf crisis. That crisis ended as the first Trump administration was coming to an end. The first Trump term was a bit more chaotic in Washington and in the Middle East. Riyadh sought US defense ties and also purchases of US defense products.
However, it realized that this wasn’t a silver bullet. Iran attacked Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq energy facility using drones and cruise missiles. The Houthis continued their attacks.
Saudi ties with the US aren’t going to deter enemies
Over the last decade, Riyadh has thus come to understand that ties with the US aren’t going to deter enemies. Riyadh will have to do this on its own.“History rarely writes itself without purpose. Next week’s meeting in Washington between Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman and US President Donald J. Trump falls 80 years after the seminal 1945 encounter between King Abdulaziz and President Franklin D. Roosevelt aboard the USS Quincy. That meeting laid the foundation for a strategic partnership that has endured wars, oil shocks, and political transitions,” Abbas writes.
He notes the parallels with the meeting with FDR. “The USS Quincy summit focused mainly on two pillars: security for the Kingdom and oil for America. The summit came just over a decade after the birth of Saudi Aramco — a joint venture that evolved into the world’s largest oil company. Though now fully Saudi-owned, the American contribution to its success remains undeniable.”
Now a new chapter is being written, he says. “The relationship is no longer confined to oil and security. Nuclear cooperation, space exploration, artificial intelligence, and advanced technologies are now on the table. This is not just a bilateral upgrade — it is a strategic leap. The timing could not be more surreal: Vision 2030 and Make America Great Again are aligned in ambition, scope, and urgency.”
Security and defense ties are important. He notes that Israel carried out a strike on Qatar. This clearly raised eyebrows in the Gulf, and countries want to be protected against any similar strikes. Did the Israeli strike make the Gulf worried about Israel’s rising power in the region? Or did it help Israel?
It seems it may have made countries more afraid of Israel. This isn’t good in Riyadh because they want stability. “Saudi Arabia, preparing to host Expo 2030 and the FIFA World Cup in 2034, must secure its borders, airspace, and waters. A written defense treaty is not just desirable — it is essential,” writes Abbas.
He also mentioned the Houthis’ attacks on Riyadh. “The Biden administration’s early decision to delist the Houthis as a terrorist organization and the 2022 withdrawal of Patriot missile batteries were met with concern.”
Abbas concludes that “this visit is not ceremonial. It is consequential. If Israel is ready to commit to a serious path toward Palestinian statehood, it could join what the crown prince calls ‘the new Europe’ — a region of integration, cooperation, and shared prosperity. The stakes are high. The opportunity is rare. And the moment is now.”
An article on November 17 serves as a curtain raiser. “The nature of our relationship can be as diverse as the Saudi economy is becoming,” Michael Ratney, former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia, told Arab News. “I think once upon a time, oil and defense really dominated the relationship. And the big change was really Saudi Arabia’s decision to start diversifying its economy…And that created huge opportunities for cooperation with the US, particularly with the US companies,” he said.
This appears to be the message that Riyadh also wants to convey. Saudi Arabia isn’t just producing oil. The oil era is basically a 20th-century phenomenon. Now Riyadh is investing in other energy sources. There is also a technology investment.
It might raise eyebrows that one Israeli minister recently insulted the Saudis by mocking them and portraying them as just riding camels. Saudi Arabia may be hearing a lot about normalization, but it’s hard to see normalization when Israeli ministers feel they can insult and berate the Kingdom and treat it like a third-world country.
Riyadh expects respect in relationships. It also has things it wants from Israel, such as tacit support for a Palestinian state, which has been Riyadh’s position for decades. The fact that most leaders in Israel have been shouting against a Palestinian state in the last few days does not likely build confidence in Riyadh to take risks.
One Israeli minister bashed the Palestinians as not a people, and Israel’s Defense Minister and Prime Minister both oppose a Palestinian state. This is clearly a message to the US as well, not to pressure Israel on this issue.
Riyadh, therefore, will focus on many other issues in Washington. Ratney, in his interview with Arab News also “addressed lingering questions about the value of US alliances, particularly after the Israeli and Iranian strikes on Qatar and the regional fallout from the Hamas-led Oct. 7, 2023, attack and Israel’s onslaught on Gaza; and dismissed claims that cultural and entertainment events being staged in Saudi Arabia are merely a publicity stunt,” Arab news noted.
Riyadh has also helped pave the way for US-Syria ties. In May, Trump was in Saudi Arabia, and they brokered a meeting with Syria’s President Ahmed al-Sharaa. Sharaa was just in Washington for a meeting with Trump.
This shows how Riyadh is seeking to be a regional power broker. It has also patched things up with Iran. This is a major change from back in 2015, when Saudi Arabia was much more vocal in condemning Iran.
Seth J. Frantzman
Source: https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-874175
No comments:
Post a Comment