by Barry Rubin
On
the issues about which the world is obsessed, Israel’s new government
is basically a continuation of the old one. That is the key point to
keep in mind regarding the new coalition which has a comfortable 68-seat
majority, well over the 61 minimum parliamentarians required.
Basically,
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in a strong position as these
things go. It is notable that there is not a single other person
seriously considered to be a serious candidate for prime minister. Of
course, he will have the usual headaches of managing a disparate
coalition in which parties will quarrel, threaten to walk out, and make
special demands.
The
coalition consists of Netanyahu’s Likud; Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid party,
which might be called traditionally liberal in American terms; Naftali
Bennett’s right-wing and dati religious (Modern Orthodox, in American
terms, Habayit Hayahudi; Tsipi Livni’s rather shapeless Hatnuah party;
and Shaul Mufaz’s tiny Kadima party. A key element of this coalition is
the alliance of Bennett and Lapid in opposition to the Haredi
(mistakenly called “ultra-Orthodox” in the West) religious parties.
Of
the three key ministries, Netanyahu will be foreign minister, holding
that post “in trust” for indicted former foreign minister Avigdor
Lieberman, whose old party ran on a joint list with the Likud. In
practice, this means Netanyahu will have close control over implementing
his policies internationally. The defense minister is the very able
Moshe Yaalon, a Likud member and former head of military intelligence.
Lapid
will run the Finance Ministry, dealing with issues on which he has no
experience at all. This is not so unusual in parliamentary systems,
where senior civil servants actually run the ministries. But Lapid holds
this post because his signature issues are to urge reforms in the
economy. His party will also get education, social services, health, and
science and technology.
Here
is something of a paradox. Israel has been one of the most successful
countries in the developed world because it has refused to join the
high-spending, high-debt, subsidy-oriented policies of Europe and now
the United States. Unemployment and inflation has been low; growth has
been relatively high. The problem, though, is that prices are also
relatively high compared to incomes, causing problems especially for
young people and consumers generally.
Lapid
is expected to revise the management of the golden eggs without doing
harm to the goose that laid them. Arguably, the number-one issue for
this government is whether Lapid can perform well. His father, a popular
journalist, followed the precise same course as the son a few years ago
and failed completely. The junior Lapid has no actual political
experience and does have characteristics of Tel Aviv beautiful people
society. If he falters, his party will disintegrate in the next
election.
As
for Bennett, the amusing spin on much coverage is that his party has
succeeded, that settlers even dominate the government, because he will
have a couple of minor ministries which don’t have much power. Actually,
he got less than I would have expected. While the settlements might
benefit a little economically from these positions–and from the party’s
holding the chairmanship over the Knesset finance committee–they will
not have much authority and control little money directly.
If
there is a big winner in the new government it is Lapid’s reformist
liberals (in the old American sense, not the redefinition imposed on
that word by the American far left). They are going to have a chance to
show if they can improve social services, a fairer distribution of
resources (the issue isn’t so much between rich and poor but across
different sectors), and an economy that retains its growth while
managing the problem of high prices, among other things.
Meanwhile,
although the world is obsessed with non-existent issues regarding the
long-dead “peace process” or fantasy options for Israel to make friends
with neighboring Islamist regimes by giving even more concessions,
Israel strategically is focused on defense.
Four
of the six bordering entities—Egypt, the Gaza Strip, Lebanon, and soon
Syria—are ruled by radical Islamist groups that openly declare their
goal of wiping Israel off the map. And that list doesn’t even include
extremely hostile Iran (whose drive toward nuclear weapons cannot be
forgotten for a moment) and the virulently anti-Israel regime in Turkey.
The
fifth neighbor, the Palestinian Authority (PA) is totally uninterested
in negotiating toward peace. Its strategy revolves around trying to
establish unilateral independence based on the UN General Assembly,
which lightly bestowed on it the status of non-member state. Only
Jordan, among the neighbors, can be deemed to be friendly when it
counts, given the monarchy’s own interests.
This
looks like a rather grim strategic situation and it is one generally
disregarded by the West. Yet Israel has maneuvering room:
–Prospects for a third intifada (guerrilla-terrorist war) in the PA has dissipated for the moment.
–A
quarrel between Hamas and the Cairo regime, which rules the Gaza Strip
and has played too many games allowing revolutionary Islamists to attack
Egypt in the Sinai, has cut off arms and reduced political support for
Hamas.
–In Lebanon, Hizballah has to cope with the loss of its patron, Syria.
–And the PA’s diplomatic strategy is fruitless, incapable of bringing about change.
–Finally,
the Sunni-Shia clash among contending Islamists and the consolidation
of power by Islamist regimes at home are also factors making Israel’s
situation easier.
Barry Rubin
Source: http://www.gloria-center.org/2013/03/israels-new-government-not-what-you-may-think/
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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