by Dr. Gabi Avital
Russia recently
announced that it intends to follow through on its plans to sell S-300
anti-aircraft missile batteries to longtime ally Syria. Diplomatic
efforts by both the United States and Israel were initially able to keep
the deal, which was signed in 2010 alongside a similar deal with Iran,
from materializing. Some believe the final word on the matter has not
yet been spoken and that Russia stands to lose more than it would gain
if it goes through with the deal.
Israel's efforts to
prevent the deal from coming to fruition may prove successful, saving
the defense establishment's research and development teams from the
major headache involved in trying to come up with a way to meet the new
threat. S-300 missiles have a range of 200 kilometers (124 miles), and
the newer models, which are currently only in Russia's possession, have
double that range. The immediate implication is that Israel Air Force
fighter jets, which until now have dominated the region's skies, might
encounter lethal anti-aircraft fire as soon as they take off from their
bases within Israel.
As daunting as that
sounds, one must ask if a single system can truly constitute a
tiebreaker in the weapons and munitions equation, especially on Israel's
northern border.
The answer varies:
There are no parameters by which Lebanon (Hezbollah) and Syria's
military capabilities are equal to Israel's. Syria's air force all but
ceased to exist 31 years ago, at the end of the First Lebanon War.
Israel downed 80 Syrian planes during that war, with no losses to the
IAF, but there is no guarantee that a score of 80:0 will remain in
place.
After the bitter
lessons of the 1973 Yom Kippur War and the blows dealt to the IAF by the
[Russian-procured] Syrian and Egyptian anti-aircraft defenses, the IAF
made sure to obliterate the missile batteries deployed in Lebanon's
Beqaa Valley during the 1982 war. The IAF destroyed 23 of Syria's 24
Russian-made surface-to-air missile batteries during that war, and
Russia was dealt a massive strategic blow when its air defense system
was proved vulnerable.
This experience might
give Russia pause before it supplies Syria with the S-300 missiles Assad
is seeking. The Syrian military is incapable of assuming the task of
mastering the advanced system without the help of Russian advisers.
Assuming Israel will come up with a way to counter the threat in the
near future, Syria cannot afford another loss, which would represent
more than the physical loss of three missile batteries, but rather a
strategic loss to its air defense capabilities.
Israel's wars have seen their
fair share of weapons systems that, while carrying their weight, fell
short of becoming a deciding factor in battle. War means losses, both in
lives and in resources. The best way to prepare for war -- as evident
by the strikes attributed by foreign media to Israel -- is to make clear
to the other side that we will not be intimidated by advanced missiles.
Dr. Gabi Avital
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=4405
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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