by Prof. Alexander Bligh
The fall of Yemen's
central government in the aftermath of the Arab Spring, together with
circumspect policymaking, the plethora of separatists, the U.S.
government and painful memories of Iraq lingering in the background have
helped produce combustible and strategic nodes of conflict between
radical Islam and the West.
One of these
flashpoints is in Yemen, situated on one of four main maritime routes
that transformed the Middle East from a remote backwater somewhere out
there in western Asia to the focal point for international interests
over the past few centuries. The straits of Bab el-Mandeb -- the Red
Sea's southern entrance -- are under Yemenite sovereignty, though the
country lacks an effective central government. The waterway is the only
way to reach Aqaba in Jordan or Eilat in Israel, two nations with close
ties to the United States. It is also the best option for Europe to
access ports in the Far East.
The Suez Canal is
another one of these four strategic points of interest. While that
passageway is under Egyptian sovereignty, a battle is raging in that
North African country over the characteristic makeup of its government,
and the possibility of radical Islamists forcing the closure of the
canal is still very real. The Turkish straits under Turkish Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the ruling Islamists' control are
another one of those strategic points. The last important spot is the
Straits of Hormuz, which is controlled by Iran to the northeast. These
passageways are in danger. Radical Islamists could block these vital oil
routes where Western navies patrol. Al-Qaida intends to be the first
radical Islamic group to seize one of these four strategic points.
The former Yemenite
government's collapse and the resulting power vacuum created an
opportunity for al-Qaida -- perhaps one of a kind -- to try and capture a
strategic outpost where the organization could pose a threat to the
U.S., Europe, Israel and Jordan. Even if al-Qaida does not go ahead and
block the straits, it would become the effective authority there.
Perhaps, beside ruling from its capital in Sana'a, the organization
would expel the U.S. and Europe from the area. Al-Qaida would have
unprecedented means of blackmailing the U.S. and its allies.
The regional
ramifications of al-Qaida's movement through Yemen could also be
devastating to northern neighbor Saudi Arabia. Al-Qaida preaches a Sunni
Islamic doctrine that considers the Saudi authorities heretical, since
their interpretation of Islam is inconsistent with that of the
organization. What that means is that today, several Islamist terrorist
groups, with al-Qaida at the helm, are acting against the Saudi
government. Al-Qaida's control of Yemen would position the organization
on the Saudi border itself, and would result in a spike of violent
opposition to the Saudi government. Even Saudi oil fields would fall
under danger of sabotage, which would damage both the Saudi regime and
its customers, mostly in the West.
All of these
considerations form the backdrop for U.S. deployment in Yemen. But
having its army around the Arabian peninsula does not quell all of
Washington's concerns. Almost a year ago, the U.S. ambassador in Libya
was killed by a mob of Islamic terrorists. Apparently U.S. intelligence
could have prevented the attack, but the U.S. failed to act on warnings.
From the American perspective, prudent caution now by closing its
embassies in the Muslim world is necessary to avoid a repeat of the
tragic events in Tripoli.
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=5283
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
No comments:
Post a Comment