by Dan Margalit
Taken at face value,
U.S. President Barack Obama's comment on the Iranian nuclear enterprise
appears to have been made in an orderly fashion. An Iranian nuclear
weapon is clearly more dangerous than Syrian chemical weapons. Curbing
Iran's nuclear program is in both Israel and the international
community's best interests. And the connection Obama makes between
Tehran and Damascus sounds like a reiteration of Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu's main arguments.
It's hard to have much
confidence in words though. Given the current political atmosphere in
which Obama enjoys scant support among Washington policymakers and the
Russia deal raises more concerns than hopes, many have interpreted the
U.S. president's words as a kind of frenzy designed to cover up the
weakness of his leadership over the issue with Syrian President Bashar
Assad, rather than a firm, consistent platform against Iranian President
Hasan Rouhani.
The U.S. claims that a
muscular military option still exists and that it would launch an attack
on Syria if the deal with Russia fell through. But it's up to the U.S.
now to convince the rest of the Middle East that it's serious this time.
The power of the U.S.'s casus-belli diplomacy has been depleted. In
failing to meet one's obligations, one sacrifices the locks of Samson.
The U.S. has to exert itself more vigorously from now on.
Russia emerged from
this deal in a position where no progress in the Middle East is possible
without its input, signalling a return of the same Cold War mould we
already know: Washington and Moscow run the world. But this time,
they're doing so together. The wheel that began turning in Washington 41
years ago when then-Egyptian president Anwar Sadat expelled Soviet
officials from Egypt has started spinning backward. Arab countries
realize that U.S. exclusivity in the region does not suffice to maintain
law and order in the Middle East.
Obama believes in his
diplomatic agreements. He depends on the deal with Syria. The next few
months will determine whether this stick has broken. The test he'll face
vis-a-vis Iran is much more daunting. If he fails -- what could go
wrong? If he succeeds, Israel's strategic situation will start to
improve, but Jerusalem will probably suffer an international backlash
against the nuclear reactor in Dimona and other sites where, according
to foreign sources, the Jewish state has worked on sundry doomsday
weapons.
Given the current
circumstances, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has been relegated to a
secluded corner. It's become a trivial issue. But not exactly, because
it is the grease that keeps the Western wheels spinning in the Middle
East. One of the results of the Syria deal -- should it materialize --
would be increased pressure on Israel to make gestures to the
Palestinians, and not because the issue is so important to either side,
or even to the U.S. Rather, it is practically crucial to Obama's
relationship with Europe.
Netanyahu and U.S. Secretary of
State John Kerry met on Sunday for four hours. Gossip wasn't on the
agenda. Netanyahu stressed the direct line between Damascus and Tehran.
Kerry explained to Netanyahu that the U.S. sees a triangle, with
Ramallah on the map.
Dan Margalit
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=5723
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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