On the Brink of Explosion?

by Lilach Shoval

Is Israel facing a new wave of Palestinian terror? • The ongoing peace talks are being accompanied by a disturbing upward trend in Palestinian terror attacks • These are no longer isolated incidents, but rather something more organized.

An IDF tank near the Gaza border | Photo credit: AFP

The past week has served as a reminder of a disturbing trend that has become evident over the past few months: Terror is rearing its head again. These are no longer sporadic security incidents but a succession of events. 

Sunday saw an explosion on a Bat Yam bus, where only passenger vigilance prevented the loss of life. Monday saw the stabbing of a policeman directing traffic near the town of Geva Binyamin, outside Jerusalem. An Israeli man repairing weather damage to the border fence near Kibbutz Nahal Oz, near Israel's border with the Gaza Strip, was killed by a Palestinian sniper on Tuesday, and later that day an Israeli man was lightly wounded when his car was stoned while traveling near the Judea and Samaria community of Oranit. 

These events, which took place in Israel, Gaza and Judea and Samaria, were seemingly unrelated: the stabbing was the work of a lone terrorist and the Gaza sniper is believed to be an operative of a "rogue" terror group. Still, all signs indicate that the situation is unlikely to wind down -- rather much to the contrary. 

The situation is Gaza is allegedly "simpler" than the situation in Judea and Samaria, where any calm is precarious. In Gaza, Hamas is making a substantial effort to rein in the local fringe organizations and maintain the lull. 

Prior to the massive snowstorm that hit Israel two weeks ago, Hamas was experiencing one of its most challenging periods since coming into power in June 2007. The demise of the sympathetic Muslim Brotherhood regime in Egypt, the intensive efforts by the new Cairo regime to eradicate the smuggling infrastructure in the Sinai Peninsula and Egypt's decision to close the Rafah crossing, have undermined Hamas rule. 

The troubles plaguing Gaza's rulers were compounded by a sharp decrease in overseas donations, which soon translated into crippling energy and economic crises, as well as further isolated Hamas in the international area. 

Despite these difficulties, over the past few months Hamas has made a nearly unprecedented effort to maintain the cease-fire agreement reached in the wake of November 2012's Operation Pillar of Defense, even going as far as forming a special taskforce whose mission is to stop any provocation or rocket fire at Israel. 

The storm, which flooded many of Gaza's streets, prompted Hamas to make its presence more visible. Its security forces were on the ground, assisting stranded Palestinians, and even Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh -- sporting a yellow life jacket -- was seen lending a hand. 

One of the assessments in Israel is that Hamas, in an attempt to divert the Palestinians' attention from the dire economic situation in Gaza, was willing to overlook the fact that terror operatives attempted to plant explosives near the border fence. 

Israeli sources said that it was that move that prompted the recent escalation: IDF forces fired at those who approached the fence, killing one Palestinian and wounding several others.

Another Israeli assessment is that the Palestinian frustration is on the verge of boiling over, which prompted a rogue terror organization to send one of its snipers to target Defense Ministry employees near Nahal Oz. It is possible that Hamas had turned a blind eye to this as well.

Regardless, immediately following the Israel Defense Forces' Tuesday strike on the Gaza Strip, Hamas made sure to relay a message to Israel, saying it was interested in preserving the understandings reached following Operation Pillar of Defense. This led Israeli defense official to conclude that Hamas is not interested in an escalation at this time, as it would rather focus its efforts on recovering from the blows it suffered last year, especially when it comes to increasing its rocket stockpile and improving the accuracy of its M-75 long-range rockets.

Nevertheless, immediately after the relatively extensive strike on Gaza, Hamas also made sure to relay another message saying it was -- and still is -- a terror organization, whose terrorist efforts are currently focused on the West Bank: many of the terror cells organizing in Judea and Samaria comprise Hamas operatives and dozens of terror attacks that have been foiled over the past few months were initiated by Hamas commanders in Gaza.

Slippery slope 

The situation in Judea and Samaria is far more complex than in Gaza. Though there is no clear link between the recent terror attacks, their increasing frequency is cause for concern. 

Two IDF soldiers and a civilian were murdered in Judea and Samaria over the past four months. Another soldier was murdered in a terror attack in Afula and several other soldiers and civilians were injured in a series of stoning, stabbing and shooting incidents. 

The deterioration in the security situation is continuous: several weeks ago, one could argue that some of those events were actually criminal in nature, but as time goes by all of them seem to have a clear nationalistic motive. 

Until recently, the defense establishment believed these incidents to be "atmospheric attacks," meaning a series of successful attacks meant to create the impression of an ongoing wave of terror, with each "success" inspiring further acts of terror. 

The defense establishment changed its tune this week, saying these were no longer "atmospheric attacks" but rather a trend whose nature is still somewhat ambiguous.

"There is no way to keep calling one terror attack after another 'atmospheric attacks,'" a senior IDF officer said this week. "On the other hand, this is not an intifada. At this time we see no [Palestinian] decision to exacerbate the situation on the ground, but still, things could erupt tomorrow morning.

"We have to wait a few weeks or a few months before we can accurately determine where things are going," he said. "We need more time to form projections, even though we can already see that there are more negative signs than positive ones." 

While the IDF refrains from defining the situation, former GOC Central Command Maj. Gen. (res.) Gadi Shamni, who also served as Israel's military attaché in Washington, defined the situation as a "crawling intifada."

"The atmosphere can create an intifada, but a crawling one. We've moved passed the stage of 'atmospheric attacks.' Things have progressed. The terror atmosphere never waned and it's still here, but the Bat Yam bus bombing -- that's more than 'atmospheric.' That takes infrastructure and serious organization. Hamas is going to great lengths to execute terror attacks in the West Bank. This intifada is slowly crawling along, but if this situation continues, it could pick up the pace."

A "crawling intifada," "atmospheric attacks" or any other undefined term, Israel is racking its brain on how to contain the situation and keep it from deteriorating further.

The defense establishment's primary solution is to maximize the intelligence and thwarting efforts, which are focused on terror infrastructure. The problem is that the majority of the recent attacks were perpetrated by a lone terrorist -- an individual who decides to act on his own, usually without sharing his plans with anyone.

Defense officials explained that intercepting a lone terrorist is extremely difficult, but at times it is possible to apprehend him during or immediately after he executes his attack.

To thwart bigger terror plots, they said, it is critical to preserve Israeli security forces' ability to operate within Area A, which is under the Palestinian Authority's complete control. The problem is the despite the fact that the IDF operates freely, terror operatives have increased their resistance to the military's raids in Palestinian areas, especially when the IDF enters refugee camps, where the PA's hold is weaker.

In the past week alone, IDF forces operating in Jenin and Qalqilya came under live fire. Two Palestinians were killed in these incidents, joining 13 other Palestinian fatalities across Judea and Samaria over the past four months. To the IDF's Judea and Samaria Brigade's credit, the troops were prepared for the possibility that they would come under fire, following previous incidents that ended without casualties. 

Shamni, however, described these incidents as minor symptoms of a major problem: in the incident in Qalqilya, for example, it was a Palestinian security officer who fired at the troops, and it was not the first time that had happened. "This indicates a change," he said. "It's another small sign that things are escalating." 

The fact that a Palestinian security officer was the one to open fire on Israeli troops also indicates the PA's waning governance and legitimacy on the ground. The pessimism on the Palestinian street and the dire economic situation, which stems in part from the decrease in foreign aid, are also contributing factors to the noticeable security escalation; as is the daily friction between the Palestinians and the settlers and Israeli security forces, and the overall Palestinian discontent with the peace process, which appears to be heading nowhere. 

Defense officials believe that without a significant change in the actions taken by both Israel and the PA, this trend will only worsen. The IDF believes that April -- the deadline set by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry for the peace talks -- may see a violent eruption. Still, at this time is seems that both sides will ask the U.S. to extend the negotiation window. 

It is believed, however, that Washington will push for the talks to meet their original deadline and some have hedged that Kerry will present the parties with the framework of a final peace deal within the next month, in an effort to place the peace talks on an even faster track. 

Either way, Israel will need to reassess the situation if it hopes to stop what seems like an inevitable security escalation. Beyond continued intelligence work and an unwavering effort to thwart any terror activity, Israel also has to find a way incentivize the PA to take action and prove that violence does not pay off.

Lilach Shoval

Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_article.php?id=14315

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