Assad's Situation is Similar to that of Hitler's

by Dr. Reuven Berko

In Arab society, there is a custom of exacting blood revenge. However, when an errant murderer exposes his tribe to a chain of needless revenge killings, the tribe leaders can declare the man an "alien" and leave him to his individual fate. From that point forward, according to tribal law, revenge can only be exacted on the individual murderer, and his immediate circle is safe. The murderer is abandoned by the tribe, and the cycle of revenge is brought to an end.

Lately, the spokespeople of the Syrian Alawite sect have been insisting that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad (who is an Alawite) does not represent them. The most vocal of them, Ali Diub, recently announced at an opposition conference in Cairo that the Alawites view themselves as part of the Syrian nation, reject the separatist resolution (in the form of an independent Alawite nation), and define Assad as a criminal who needs to be removed from power. These declarations suggest that the Alawites, who have so far enjoyed the perks of Assad's regime, are not willing to pay the expected price of mass revenge, and are counting down the minutes to Assad's fall, much like Assad himself. 

The Russians have granted Assad a grace period by so far preventing Turkey, NATO, the Arabs and the U.S. from becoming directly involved against him. The Chinese, who also oppose outside intervention, have also been strengthening Assad. Russian warships and giant aircraft bringing tons of advanced weapons and supplies to the regime's army, Hezbollah fighters deployed in Syria and the aid of the Iranian and Iraqi allies from the east all serve to prolong the tyrant's reign. 

In the meantime, the Americans and the Europeans are neutralized, hesitating to arm the Syrian opposition forces in fear that after toppling Assad, the opposition will enact an extreme Islamist regime in Assad's stead. The divisiveness within the Syrian opposition is also buying Assad time. However, the illusion of a possible rehabilitation of Assad's power is now long gone. Rebel strongholds along the country's borders, in army bases, along necessary passageways and at sites formerly dominated by the regime have turned the Syrian leadership into isolated pockets. 

The threatened regime is using more and more aggressive methods to combat Syria's citizens — airstrikes, Scud missiles, cluster munitions and gas attacks. These frantic measures signify Assad's desperation, and underscore the urgent need for the West to intervene. The Arab League conference in Doha last week, which included representatives of the Syrian opposition, yielded no more than a molehill. Only the French and the British are seriously discussing providing the rebels with weapons. 

The noose around Assad's neck is tightening. Lebanon's pro-Syrian Prime Minister Najib Mikati has resigned. The battles between Sunni and Shiite Muslims in the Lebanese city of Tripoli pose a threat to Assad's Lebanese support base. U.S. President Barack Obama is threatening Iran, and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry is demanding that the Iraqi government to stop providing aid to Assad by allowing Iranian overflights. Israel is returning fire coming from Syria at the border, and mending strategic ties with Turkey, under the auspices of the U.S. All these things signal the downfall of the Tehran-Damascus-Dahiya (Beirut) axis. Assad's situation is similar to that of Hitler. On July 20, 1944, Wehrmacht officers tried to assassinate Hitler and topple the Nazi regime. Signs of defeat, atrocities committed and deranged decisions by the fuhrer prompted Hitler's close associates to plant explosives in his conference room. Despite the blast, Hitler survived, and the mastermind of the assassination plot, Colonel Claus von Stauffenberg, was executed. 

Last year, on July 18, two days before the anniversary of that historic blast, an attack was carried out against Assad's close advisers, only this time the plan was successful. One of Assad's security personnel had perpetrated a huge explosion in the center of the National Security Headquarters in Damascus, where Assad's "crisis management team" had convened, under the leadership of the Syrian defense minister. 

The suicide bombing killed Defense Minister General Dawoud Rajiha, his deputy General Assef Shawkat (Assad's brother-in-law), General Hasan Turkmani who headed the situation room and General Hisham Ikhtiyar, the director of the National Security Bureau. This attack crippled the central nervous system of Assad's most loyal circle. Ever since the attack, Assad has constrained himself to operating within very limiting security measures. 

Will Assad insist on fighting to the very end, the way Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi did? Will he step down and agree to be evacuated by the Russians under an agreed upon deal? Will he try to use chemical weapons, or fabricate a conflict with Israel? Will Turkey attack Syria with NATO, Israeli, and American backing? Perhaps, in light of the latest Alawite stance, Assad will be assassinated, Valkyrie-style, by one of his guards?

Dr. Reuven Berko

Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=3893

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