by Prof. Eyal Zisser
It is doubtful that Assad could have survived this long without the financial aid Iran has afforded Syria, but the assistance lent to him by Hezbollah has also been crucial to his ability to maintain his grip on the regime.
The Syrian revolution
will soon mark its fourth anniversary. The uprising, which turned into a
bloody civil war, has all but obliterated the country, which is still
under President Bashar Assad's rule.
Syria proper has been
reduced to a narrow, north-bound strip stretching from Damascus through
Aleppo, to the Alawite provinces along the coast; what was once eastern
Syria is now an Islamic caliphate controlled by the Islamic State group,
and the rest of Syria is controlled by various rebel groups.
There is little left of
Syria as we knew it, with the exception of one thing -- the strategic
alliance between Damascus, Tehran and Hezbollah, which has only grown
stronger over the past few years. The deeper Assad has become embroiled
in the quagmire of civil war, the more dependent he has become on his
Iranian ally and its proxy, Hezbollah.
It is doubtful that
Assad could have survived this long without the financial aid Iran has
afforded Syria, but the assistance lent to him by Hezbollah has also
been crucial to his ability to maintain his grip on the regime. The
thousands of Hezbollah fighters sent to battle the rebels may not have
been able to defeat them, but it is Hezbollah's hundreds of wounded and
dead that have been keeping Assad in power.
Iran and Hezbollah have
made it their mission to save Assad, because Syria is pivotal to the
Shiite axis they seek to install between Tehran, Baghdad, Damascus and
Beirut. Syria is Iran's gateway to the Mediterranean, as well as a
crucial supply route through which Iran continues to arm Hezbollah with
tens of thousands of missiles.
Assad, for his part,
feels obligated to do his Shiite allies' bidding. After all, for years
emissaries from Washington and Jerusalem whispered in his ear that he
should sever his ties with the axis of evil, strike a peace deal with
Israel and restore diplomatic relations with the U.S., but at the moment
of truth, the U.S. became his adversary while Iran rallied to his side.
Syria's alliance with
Iran and Hezbollah is so strong that Assad has not thought twice before
giving his allies what little he has left, including his Russian-made
weapons. These weapons are of no use in his war against the rebels, but
for Hezbollah -- as admitted by Israel -- these are game-changing arms,
which are likely to give it a significant advantage in any future
conflict with Israel. Hezbollah, for its part, has thrown its full force
behind Assad, while still diligently working to bolster its abilities
versus Israel; as if Syria is not ravaged by civil war, and as if it has
not lost hundreds of operatives in the fighting.
Any future conflict
between Israel and Hezbollah will be based -- much like any conflict
with Hamas in the Gaza Strip -- on missile arsenals and terrorist cells
that would most likely use tunnels to clash with security forces and
attack Israeli civilians. This is why Hezbollah is adamant to remain
war-ready when it comes to Israel, despite the war in Syria.
Hezbollah is also
adamant on continuing to generate its own deterrence, which has so far
caused Israel to be wary of mounting an airstrike in Lebanon, over
concerns of the Shiite terrorist group's reaction. According to foreign
media reports, Israel has opted instead to take advantage of Assad's
weaknesses and stage strikes on Syrian soil, assuming that Assad would,
as usual, prefer to contain the situation rather than respond.
With all due respect to civil wars, Israel still remains a top priority for its enemies.
Prof. Eyal Zisser
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=10857
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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