Remember lessons learned - Prof. Eyal Zisser

by Prof. Eyal Zisser

The lesson learned from the Lebanese experience must resonate with Israel's captains whenever they consider the Syrian dilemma. Any involvement, partial as it may be, will drag Israel into a prolonged military presence in an area where the residents welcoming ways may change in an instant

Israel's cross-border involvement with its neighbors usually begins with the human desire to assist those in need. That is how Israel became involved in Lebanon: A civil war had ravaged the country in the mid-1970s and the Maronite Christian community, suffering at the hands of the Palestine Liberation Organization, had turned to Israel for humanitarian aid.

Israel agreed immediately and soon the aid included military assistance as well. The next, inevitable stage saw the leaders of the Maronite community ask Israel to increase its military involvement in Lebanon, to rescue them from the "massacre" awaiting them at the hands of their Muslim and Syrian neighbors. In return, the Maronites pledged to form an alliance with Israel.

Israel, however, soon discovered the Maronites' pledge was empty. Their leaders would later explain that the Maronite community considers itself part of the Arab sphere in which it lives and therefore it needs to continue coexisting with a large Muslim community.

When Israeli soldiers first entered Lebanon in 1982, the Shiites welcomed them, much like Maronites had before. Soon enough, however, their animosity resurfaced.

The rest of the story is well known: Israel remained in southern Lebanon for years, maintaining a security zone from which it withdrew in 2000 after realizing that staying within enemy territory, surrounded by a hostile Shiite population, was not an option. Israel also learned that the Maronites have found a new ally -- Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah. 

The lesson learned from the Lebanese experience must resonate with Israel's captains whenever they consider the Syrian dilemma. Any involvement, partial as it may be, will drag Israel into a prolonged military presence in an area where the residents welcoming ways may change in an instant, as regardless of whether we are dealing with Syrian Druze or moderate Sunnis rebels, they see themselves as part of the Arab and Syrian spheres. 

One could justify Israel's willingness to provide humanitarian aid to its neighbors by saying that given the chaotic security situation on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights, Israel would be wise to maintain open lines of communication with the armed groups operating beyond the border. However, any assistance must be lent with eyes wide open and be devoid of expectations or illusions.

Israel is in the local Druze community's debt, which is why aiding their brethren in Syria should be seriously considered, including providing shelter for Druze refugees in a designated area on the Israeli side of the border. One should note, however, that the Syrian Druze have made it clear that they do not want Israel's help, stating they see themselves part of the Syrian state. 

This is why any Israeli involvement in Syria must be wary and realistic. Israel must avoid any military presence in the war-torn country, even if, heaven forbid, the Islamic State group arrives at the border, or the Nusra Front trains its sights on Israel. 

This fight has to be waged based on sophisticated intelligence, and Israel must resist being dragged into the refugee-ridden Syrian sphere where the population might turn against it in the blink of an eye.

Prof. Eyal Zisser

Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=12937

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