by Prof. Eyal Zisser
Putin's involvement in Syria once again situates him as an indispensable player on the international stage, regardless of whether he saves Assad or not.
Earlier than expected,
Russia has returned to the Middle East to fill the void left behind by
the United States. To anyone who eulogized Russia as a global power
because of the painful economic sanctions imposed on it by the U.S. and
Europe; to anyone who believed the Kremlin's adventures in the Ukraine
would limit its global maneuverability, Vladimir Putin is proving quite
clearly that he hasn't lost his power. In Saudi Arabia and in Egypt, the
Russians are signing weapons deals worth tens of billions of dollars,
and in Iran as well. And here they are now, making a return to Syria,
which for many years was its main stronghold in the Middle East.
Russia never abandoned
Syrian President Bashar Assad, lavishing him with weapons and funds even
in his bleakest days. Such direct involvement though, which includes
the deployment of soldiers and pilots to Syria, is undoubtedly a
dramatic escalation even for Russia, not to mention surprising. This
involvement points first and foremost to a sense of confidence and
power, without which Putin would have never upped the Russian ante in
Syria. Only a self-assured leader can order a military involvement of
this sort in such a problematic and volatile region, all while openly
disregarding the Americans.
Does Putin truly
believe he can save Assad? This isn't the question he's asking himself.
His involvement in Syria once again situates him as a primary, and
indispensable, player on the international stage, which in turn affects
Russia's standing in other parts of the world where it is also active,
like Europe and the Far East.
Therefore, even if
Assad falls, the Russian presence in Syria is liable to continue.
Indeed, Russia has set up camp along the Alawite coast, a defensible
enclave with a majority Alawite population from where the regime will
muster its final battle for survival. From Russia's perspective,
therefore, this is a long-term investment.
We must also recognize
that for Putin, Syria is a front line of defense against the spread of
radical Islam, which will eventually reach Russia's doorstep if it is
not curbed. In light of the U.S.-led coalition's failure to stop the
Islamic State group, the Russians are looking to present an alternative
of their own by showing they are more than willing to be aggressive
where the U.S. has been tentative -- by putting their troops and pilots
on the ground in Syria. One day the Americans will thank the Russians, a
consideration that Moscow and Washington have also taken into account.
Most regretful,
however, is that beyond Russia's increased presence in Syria, American
bankruptcy and powerlessness in the Middle East is on full display.
Russia is simply not worried about the U.S. It certainly isn't heeding
the Americans' limp warnings that openly intervening in Syria's civil
war could lead to a clash with America's local allies among the rebel
groups, or with American fighter jets operating in Syrian skies.
What are the
implications for Israel? In contrast to the 1970s, Russia is not an
enemy of Israel and its presence in Syria is not designed to help Assad
-- or Iran and Hezbollah down the road -- fight Israel. The Russians
have no quarrel with Israel, but at the same time they are unperturbed
if advanced weaponry, the likes of which it is selling for good money to
Iran and Syria, hurts Israel. Active Russian intervention in Syria will
undoubtedly hamper Israel, which up to now has customarily bombed
targets in Syria any time it suspected the Syrians of transferring
advanced weapons to Hezbollah.
Perhaps the Russians won't be
able to save Assad, but they are turning Syria into an important
stronghold in their worldwide campaign, whether against global jihad or
as part of the renewed clash with the United States. It would be wise
for Israel to stay on the sidelines in this regard, certainly as long as
the U.S. itself continues to employ a policy of inaction in Syria.
Prof. Eyal Zisser
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=13703
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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