by Dr. Ofer Israeli
The European Union's overall policy toward Israel will also be influenced by the continual arrival of refugees.
In October 2009, U.S.
President Barack Obama was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for
"extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and
cooperation between people." The prestigious prize wasn't given for the
president's welcome actions -- he had taken office in January of that
year -- but instead reflected the diplomatic path the distributors of
the prize wanted to lay out for him.
Obama followed that
path. He refrained from military involvement in the Middle East, which
in many people's opinion was a main cause of the Arab Spring
deteriorating into a serious regional crisis and the huge wave of
refugees into European nations. The ironic result can also be
interpreted as a sort of unintended historic justice: Europe, which left
the Middle East at the end of World War II, is forced to take in the
descendants of its former subjects.
The results of the
Middle Eastern emigration to Europe aren't yet fully clear, but we are
already witnessing some of them. The Egyptian plane crash
-- which according to an initial investigation was facilitated through,
among other things, employees who had drawn closer to Islam and had
access to sensitive sites near the plane -- is one. Jerusalem also needs
to prepare itself for the possible ramifications, some of which might
be very bad. After many of the refugees are absorbed in their new places
of residence, European nations will be forced to consider the electoral
aspect of such a large number of voters entering the political system
in their new countries. The votes of the people who just arrived could
help elect representatives who hold anti-Israel opinions -- supporters
of the Palestinian issue and groups that promote boycotting Israel.
Another internal challenge stems from the increase of anti-Semitic
incidents involving immigrants, alongside great efforts by terrorist
organizations to attack Jewish and Israeli targets on the continent.
The European Union's
overall policy toward Israel will also be influenced by the continual
arrival of refugees. EU representatives are already working to prevent
passage of Syrian refugees by signing agreements with Turkey and from
Africa by funding preventative activities carried out by the mother
countries in Africa itself, such as Sudan. The European fear of the
influx of refugees increasing could lead Brussels to toughen its policy
toward Jerusalem about Palestinians in Gaza and Judea and Samaria. Some
in the EU leadership are already voicing the opinion that the failure to
find a solution to the Palestinian issue will cause the region to fall
to the Islamic State, meaning even more refugees.
Some European nations
haven't abandoned their dream of reinstating themselves as international
superpowers. France is putting words into action and working tirelessly
on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as well as other conflicts in the
Middle East. Only recently, we learned about the immense effort French
Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault is putting into promoting the French
initiative.
European countries'
aspiration of expanding their influence in our region is getting a push
from U.S. policy under Obama, which holds that Washington should retreat
from involvement in the Middle East and transfer responsibility for the
region to local and other players. Russia and Iran have already
strengthened their grip, and if the new American administration doesn't
change its conduct, we can expect France and other European nations to
get involved in regional diplomacy. That involvement should be of
concern to Jerusalem, but in light of past experience, we can expect
that Europe will not act as an objective player, and will largely seek
to force Israel to accept stances that oppose its official policy.
Israel has neither the
ability nor the desire to influence the stream of refugees into Europe.
Therefore, Jerusalem must prepare itself ahead of time for the negative
ramifications that immigration might have on general policy. In
addition, Israel must identify and take advantage of the opportunities
that a change like this could create: the possibility of increasing the
number of Jews who make aliyah from European welfare states like France;
and sharing its long years of experience with EU institutions to help
the EU improve its ability to deal with the growing internal terrorism
threat on the continent, like the Egyptian plane that was brought down
last week.
Dr. Ofer Israeli is
an expert in international and Middle Eastern defense and lectures on
foreign policy decision-making at Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya and
the University of Haifa.
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=16169
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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