by Prof. Eyal Zisser
Two significant events last week illustrated more than anything that Russia is the new adult in the room and, befitting of the status, is conducting affairs in a responsible fashion.
Ahead of the new
American administration's upcoming inauguration, the Middle East has
been busy making preparations to welcome the new sheriff in town. No,
this does not necessarily mean Donald Trump, the newly elected U.S.
president, rather Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has been able to
exploit the mistakes and failures, and mainly the displays of weakness
of the Obama administration to replace the U.S. as the preeminent
superpower in our region.
Two significant events
last week illustrated more than anything that Russia is the new adult in
the room and, befitting of the status, is conducting affairs in a
responsible fashion. Meanwhile, the U.S. is increasingly being pushed
aside over its childish, emotional, and outright pathetic conduct.
On the eve of the new
year, Russia has managed to strike a cease-fire deal in Syria, signed by
most of the players fighting there, among them Iran and Turkey, but
also the Syrian regime and the majority of rebel groups. It's quite
possible the budding arrangement is unjust; it certainly won't bring
liberty and democracy to those millions of Syrians rose up against
Bashar Assad's regime. It is also clear that without Russian military
intervention and without its methodical bombardment of large swathes of
the country, Moscow would not have arrived at its intended results --
breaking the rebels' morale and securing the existence of a Syrian
state, with Assad ruling over a considerable portion. The fact is,
however, that Russia was willing to act decisively and aggressively,
flex its muscles, and use military force -- something the Americans
avoided.
In doing so, the
Russians showed that unlike the Americans they were committed to their
friends and allies, and were prepared, without hesitation or reckoning,
to protect them in international bodies and on the ground.
Russia, however, did
more than simply exert its military power; it prudently held dialogue
with the adversary -- Turkey and the rebels -- showing restraint and
willingness to compromise at the crucial junction, just when Aleppo, the
second-largest city in Syria, appeared on the verge of falling to the
regime. While the cease-fire agreement does not yet signal the end of
the war, it is undoubtedly an important step in that direction. And it
was achieved, incidentally, without Washington but with its ally Turkey,
which felt safer pinning its hopes on Putin than on U.S. President
Barack Obama.
Russia was also active
in the Israeli-Palestinian arena, much like it was in Egypt, in an
effort to save the U.S. from itself. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey
Lavrov told a dejected U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry that Russia
would not be dragged into taking childish, unhelpful measures that could
possibly pose future obstacles to peace between Israel and the
Palestinians.
In their handling of
the Middle East, it appears the Russians are approaching the magnitude
of the responsibility with the appropriate modicum of maturity and good
judgment. When the region served as boxing ring between Moscow and
Washington, the Russians were belligerent, defiant and uncompromising.
Now that the U.S. has faded away, the Russians have proceeded with
prudence, an appreciation for the region's complexities and with an
understanding of the problems facing it.
Finally, even in the
cyberwar between Washington and Moscow, Putin chose to sidestep a clash
whose entire purpose, at least from Obama's perspective, was retaliation
for the U.S. election results and to ensnare the Trump administration
in a public and unnecessary conflict with the Russians.
On January 20, a new
boss, Donald Trump, will enter the White House, determined to fix
Obama's mistakes and return America to greatness. Trump, however, is
liable to find that the damage to America's standing in the region is
unfixable, and that the undisputed facts on the ground, created by Putin
in his exploitation of American weakness, will be hard to change.
Prof. Eyal Zisser
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=18055
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