by Dr. Mordechai Kedar
Donald Trump is facing his first international test. And if he passes it, the US will be on the way back to its former glory.
A very short length of rope connects the launching of an anti-aircraft missile
towards IAF jets on the night of March 17th and the murderous use (once
again!) of the poison gas which the Syrian regime is not supposed to
have by the "Butcher of Damascus." The rope has the words "made in
Russia," on it, and the poison gas is just a continuation of the brutal
behavior of the Russian armed forces who have been helping Assad. And
since Russia has veto power iin the Security Council, the world, even if
it so wishes, is unable to force Putin to give an accounting of his
army's actions in Syria and it certainly does not have the power to act
against Russia in non-military fashion - by boycotting it, for example.
Although
this latest atrocity took place during President Trump's term of
office, the responsibility for its occurrence rests squarely on the
former president's shoulders. Obama ignored the previous chemical
weapons attacks, over 20 of them, and allowed Assad to get off the hook
via an "agreement" according to which he was to dismantle his chemical
weapons stores. There was no provision in the agreement for making sure
Assad gave up his entire arsenal of CBW (chemical and biological
weapons) nor did it have any means of preventing the renewed manufacture
of chemical weapons once Assad dismantled a portion of them. All these
mistakes were made during Obama's terms of office, and since then,
Syrian citizens have been suffering from their reverberating outcomes.
With
Russia's back, Assad feels free to do whatever he wishes, anything at
all, legal or illegal, letting the end justify the means, including
chemical means. He needs to remain the ruler in order to keep his head
attached to his neck, even if he is left with only a small part of the
country, from the coast eastward to the Idlib Mountains, where his
defenders say he will establish an Allawite state on the ruins of Syria.
Assad strides unhesitantly on the skeletons of the people he has
killed, on a road built by the Iranians, Hezbollah and the Shiite
militias who came to eliminate the Sunni majority in Syria and replace
it with Shiites, some local and some imported from Iran and Afghanistan.
An ethnic purge of the Sunni majority is going on in Syria, and it
involves using whatever means are at Assad's disposal. Exile, mass
murders, all achieved using conventional weapons - or gas, the poison
gas he doesn't have anymore after "destroying" the arsenal, leaving a
significant amount intact and possibly the ability to manufacture more.
Assad
is flexing his muscles, waiting to see whether the new US president has
any red lines - and if so, what he might do if Assad crosses them. He
is checking just how far he can go, how much patience Trump has, whether
he has to be taken seriously, and just how seriously. If Trump does
nothing, Assad will conclude that Trump is an Obama clone with regard to
Syria and not worth taking to heart. Trump is facing his first test
right now, with North Korea's nuclear threats vis a vis South Korea in
the background, closely followed by Japan and the US, Russian plans
for Ukraine and China's aspirations for control of parts of the China
Sea.
In my humble opinion, the chemical weapons attack on Khan Sheikhoun that
left over a hundred dead and several hundreds injured, many of them
chidlren, is - uinfortunately - the chance that the god of history has
given the new American president. If I were one of Trump's advisors, I
would tell him to call a press conference in the White House and read
the following letter, live, to the entire world:
"To the Butcher of Damascus, Mr. Bashar Assad,
"For
the past six years you have been massacring your citizens, people whose
only sin is their wish to live in a state that cares about them, and
not in a state which sees itself as their enemy. You, who have turned
Syria into a slaughterhouse for its people, have lost all legitimacy, if
you ever had any, because you have failed in the primary and central
mission of any president: ensuring that his citizens can live their
lives. That concept has vanished without a trace, leaving no
justification for the continuation of your regime. In the name of
Syria's citizens, in the name of all mankind, you are hereby removed
from your position forthwith. You have 48 hours to get out of Syria, and
as Commander in Chief of the US armed forces I have already given the
order to be ready for an operation that will leave you a dead man. If
you are still on Syrian soil at the end of that time period, I will
give the order to act. Don't call me to get a time extension because you
won't get one, you simply don't deserve it."
A
credible threat of his nature will get the entire world to its feet
with one question: "What is going to happen if Assad does not give in to
the threat and ignores Trump's ultimatum? Putin will have to either
enter into a confrontation with the United States or convince Assad to
"take a short leave" in Moscow until Trump calms down. The North Koreans
will wait impatiently to see the results of Russia's threats, because
they are next in line after Assad to be threatened similarly by Trump
about their military nuclear plans. Iran will also be on alert during
those fateful 48 hours after Trump's speech because Iran's rulers know
exactly what Trump thinks of them and of the nuclear agreement Obama had
them sign in 2015.
An
ultimatum of this nature could give the United States deterrent power
once again after Nobel Peace Prize laureate Obama, the human rights
knight in shining armor, intentionally and purposefully made it
disappear. If Assad gives in to the ultmatum, Trump will come out a real
winner. If Assad refuses to leave and an American operation eliminates
him - Trump will be an even greater winner. I do not expect Putin to
battle Trump to keep Assad in power, because Russian interests are not
dependent on Assad the man but on the Alawite ethnic group and the ports
Russia has taken over in Syria. Russia is also interested in what
becomes of the natural gas on the bottom of the sea facing
Syria's coast. Syria's gas resources are much larger than those of
Israel.
Written for Arutz Sheva, translated from the Hebrew by Rochel Sylvetsky
Dr. Mordechai Kedar is a senior lecturer in the Department of Arabic at Bar-Ilan University. He served in IDF Military Intelligence for 25 years, specializing in Arab political discourse, Arab mass media, Islamic groups and the Syrian domestic arena. Thoroughly familiar with Arab media in real time, he is frequently interviewed on the various news programs in Israel.
Source: http://www.israelnationalnews.com/Articles/Article.aspx/20358
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