by Gideon Elazar
As the Syrian civil war enters its final stages, China appears determined to take on a central role in Syria’s reconstruction.
Syrian girls walk past destroyed buildings
on their way
home from school in Aleppo,
image posted on Flickr CC by
Jordi Bernabeu Farrús
BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 673, December 5, 2017
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: As the
Syrian civil war enters its final stages, China appears determined to
take on a central role in Syria’s reconstruction. One factor motivating
China’s involvement is the presence of a large number of Uighur
jihadists among the anti-government forces. Another is the “One Belt-One
Road” initiative – a planned attempt to establish and control a modern
day Silk Road connecting China, the Middle East, and Europe. The
increasingly active role China is playing in Syria might mark a shift in
the geostrategic reality of the region.
With the gradual collapse of ISIS and the
impending conclusion of the Syrian civil war, it is becoming clear that
China will play a major role in the reconstruction of Syria. Indeed,
Chinese involvement in Syria has been on the rise over the past several
months. This summer, China hosted the “First Trade Fair on Syrian
Reconstruction Projects,” during which officials pledged $2 billion
towards the rebuilding. In addition, the Chinese Ministry of Civil
Affairs has already approved a number of initial aid projects. In
September, China’s intention to participate in reconstruction efforts
was affirmed by the Chinese news agency Xinhua.
The Syrian ambassador to China, Imad Mustafa,
explained that China’s projected role in the reconstruction process is a
direct result of Chinese aid to Assad’s regime during the war:
“China, Russia, and Iran have provided substantial support to Syria during the military conflict. Therefore, it is these three countries that should play a major role in the reconstruction of Syria. If the work were to be carried out by other countries, even by those who participate in the damage to the Syrian infrastructure, it would be very unfair.”
China’s role in post-war Syria has also been
addressed directly by Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. In an interview
with a Chinese journalist in March of this year, Assad stated that China
is involved in several industrial projects and may be active in the
future “in every sector with no exception.” In what might be a gesture
of friendship towards China, the interview concluded with a discussion
of Assad’s son’s study of the Chinese language. Assad said he strongly
supports the study of Chinese and noted that Chinese-Syrian relations
are developing rapidly.
Since the inception of the Syrian civil war,
Beijing has played an essential role in providing an umbrella for the
Assad government by blocking decisions at the UN Security Council
intended to impose sanctions on Syria. While Beijing has refrained from
direct military operations, it dispatched a small number of troops to
Syria to provide medical and engineering training for the Syrian army.
At the same time, China’s special envoy to Syria, Xie Xiaoyan, has been
traveling the region in an effort to negotiate a peace agreement between
the parties and regional powers.
Chinese companies, meanwhile, are deeply invested
in Syria. The China National Petroleum Corporation owns large stakes in
two of Syria’s largest oil companies, the Syrian Petroleum Company and
Al Furat Petroleum. In addition, in 2015, Chinese telecommunications
company Huawei signed an agreement to support Syrian efforts to set up
broadband technology in Syria by 2020.
From the Syrian perspective, the central role
reserved for China in the country’s reconstruction can also be ascribed
to the fact that Chinese support of Assad comes with no political
strings attached. As the war winds down, the regime is drawing up plans
for the post-war era – plans that that will significantly change Syria’s
demographic makeup. While the EU would find it difficult to support
these initiatives, the same cannot be said of China.
One reason often cited to explain China’s support
for the Syrian regime is the presence in Syria of up to 5,000 Uighur
Muslim jihadists from Xinjiang who are fighting alongside the Syrian
opposition. (This may be a conservative estimate – according to a report
aired by the Dubai-based Al Aan TV in March 2017, Uighurs in Syria may
number over 10,000.) For the most part, Uighur fighters in Syria belong
to the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP), an organization that has already
struck Chinese targets outside China, such as the 2016 attack on the
Chinese embassy in Kyrgyzstan. TIP in Syria is associated with Al Qaeda
and is concentrated mostly around the city of Idlib, not far from the
Turkish border. (Indeed, it would seem that many of the Uighurs who
arrived in Syria did so with the assistance of the Turkish authorities).
A significant percentage of the Uighurs in Syria arrived with their
families, settling in abandoned Shiite and Christian villages on the
Turkish-Syrian frontier.
Eliminating the threat of radical Islamic elements
is a mutual Chinese-Syrian goal. Indeed, Beijing would prefer to
eliminate the Uighur Islamists on Syrian ground rather than deal with
them back in China.
From the Chinese perspective, investment in Syria
must be viewed within the larger context of the One Belt-One Road
initiative – the heavily promoted modern day version of the ancient Silk
Road. It is likely that China is hoping to turn Syria into an important
terminus of its economic web, perhaps centered around the Mediterranean
ports of Latakia and Tartus.
It should be noted that Chinese promotion of the
One Belt-One Road plan has been greeted with significant interest by
several countries in the region. At the same time, China is making
efforts to exert its influence on the region by expanding the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization (SCO) as a counterweight to NATO.
Significantly, Iran has expressed a clear interest in joining the SCO, a
move that is supported by Chinese authorities.
A tightening of relations between Iran and China
was visible in 2016, with the arrival of the first cargo train from
Zhejiang to Tehran. While Iran’s membership in the SCO has not yet
materialized, it is reasonable to believe that other Arab countries in
the region, including Iran’s client state of Syria, will show similar
interest in Chinese patronage. Thus, the approaching conclusion of the
war in Syria in Assad’s favor may have considerable implications for the
geostrategic future of the region – a future in which China will be
playing a considerably expanded role.
BESA Center Perspectives Papers are published through the generosity of the Greg Rosshandler Family
Source: https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/moving-westward-chinese-rebuilding-syria/
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