by Daniel Pipes
Don't shun the populists of Europe; work with and learn from them
IS EUROPE RETURNING to the horrors of the 1930s? In an assessment typical of the moment, Max Holleran writes in the New Republic
that "in the past ten years, new right-wing political movements have
brought together coalitions of Neo-Nazis with mainstream free-market
conservatives, normalizing political ideologies that in the past rightly
caused alarm." He sees this trend creating a surge in "xenophobic
populism." Writing in Politico, Katy O'Donnell
agrees: "Nationalist parties now have a toehold everywhere from Italy
to Finland, raising fears the continent is backpedaling toward the kinds
of policies that led to catastrophe in the first half of the 20th
century." Jewish leaders like Menachem Margolin, head of the European Jewish Association, sense "a very real threat from populist movements across Europe."
Germany
and Austria, the birthplaces of National Socialism, naturally arouse
the most concern, especially after the elections in 2017, when the
Alternative for Germany (AfD) won 13 percent of the vote and the Freedom
Party of Austria (FPÖ) won 26 percent. Felix Klein, Germany's commissioner to combat anti-Semitism, says that the AfD "helps make anti-Semitism presentable again." Oskar Deutsch, president of the Jewish Communities of Austria, argues that the FPÖ "has never distanced itself" from its Nazi past.
Is
this correct? Or does this insurgency reflect a healthy response by
Europeans to protect their way of life from open immigration and
Islamization?
A historic postcard of Hénin-Beaumont, France.
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TO BEGIN WITH, what to call the phenomenon under discussion? The parties in question tend to be called far-right
but that is inaccurate, for they offer a mixture of rightist policies
(focused on culture) and leftist ones (focused on economics). The
National Rally in France, for example, attracts leftist support
by calling for the nation's banks to be nationalized. Indeed,
ex-communists make up a key element of support; Hénin-Beaumont, which is
now among the most fervently pro-National Rally towns of France,
previously was among the most communist.
An AfD election poster in 2017: "Burkas? We like bikinis."
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Better
to call them "civilizationist," focusing on their cultural priority,
because they feel intense frustration at watching their way of life
disappear. They cherish Europe's and the West's traditional culture and
want to defend it from assault by immigrants aided by the left. (The
term "civilizationist" has the additional benefit of excluding those
parties which loathe Western civilization, such as Greece's neo-Nazi
Golden Dawn.)
The woman admonished by Angela Merkel, told to go to church services more often.
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Plenty of space in Sweden! Let the whole world immigrate.
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All of these three, it bears noting, are what pass for conservatives
in Europe. Others, like Nicolas Sarkozy of France and David Cameron of
Great Britain, talked tough but governed soft. Their contemptuous
dismissal of anti-immigration sentiments created an opportunity for
civilizationist parties through much of Europe. From the venerable FPÖ
(founded 1956) to the Netherlands' new Forum for Democracy (founded
2016), they fill an electoral and societal gap.
Civilizationist parties, led by Italy's League, are anti-immigration,
seeking to control, reduce, and even reverse the immigration of recent
decades, especially that of Muslims and Africans. These two groups stand
out not because of prejudice ("Islamophobia" or racism) but due to
their being the least assimilable of foreigners, an array of problems
associated with them, such as not working and criminal activity, and a fear that they will impose their ways on Europe.
Finally, the parties are anti-Islamization.
As Europeans learn about Islamic law (the Shari'a), they increasingly
focus on its role concerning women's issues, such as niqabs and burqas,
polygamy, taharrush (sexual assault), honor killings, and female
genital mutilation. Other concerns deal with Muslim attitudes toward
non-Muslims, including Christophobia and Judeophobia, jihadi violence,
and the insistence that Islam enjoy a privileged status vis-à-vis other
religions.
Muslims,
it bears noting, form a geographical membrane around Europe, from
Senegal to Morocco to Egypt to Turkey to Chechnya, enabling vast numbers
of potential migrants with relative ease to enter illegally the
continent by land or sea. It's 75 kilometers from Albania to Italy, 60
kilometers from Tunisia to (the tiny island of Pantelleria in) Italy, 14
kilometers across the Strait of Gibraltar from Morocco to Spain, 1.6
kilometers from Anatolia to the Greek island of Samos, fewer than 100 meters across the Evros River from Turkey to Greece, and 10 meters from Morocco to the Spanish enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla.
187 illegal migrants stormed the border fence separating the Spanish territory of Ceuta from Morocco on Aug. 7, 2017.
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Increasing
numbers of would-be migrants are circling around the entry points, in
some cases resorting to violence to force their way in. In 2015,
Johannes Hahn, the European Union's enlargement commissioner estimated
that "there are 20 million refugees waiting at the doorstep of Europe."
That may sound like a large number, but when one adds economic migrants
to the mix, the numbers shoot up still more; especially as water
shortages drive Middle Easterners from their homelands, aspiring
migrants might begin to approach Europe's population of 740 million.
ALMOST
WITHOUT EXCEPTION, civilizationist parties suffer from deep problems.
Mainly staffed by neophytes, they contain disturbing numbers of cranks:
anti-Jewish and anti-Muslim extremists, racists, power-hungry oddballs, conspiracy theorists, historical revisionists, and Nazi nostalgists.
Autocrats run their parties undemocratically and seek to dominate
parliaments, the media, the judiciary, schools, and other key
institutions. They harbor anti-American resentments and take money from
Moscow.
These
shortcomings usually translate into electoral weakness, as Europeans
resist voting for parties that spew bile and cantankerous ideas. About
60 percent of the German voting public worries about Islam and Muslims, polls show,
but only one-fifth of them voted for AfD. To advance electorally and
achieve their potential, then, civilizationist parties must convince the
voters they can be trusted to govern. Older parties especially, such as
the FPÖ, are changing, as shown by the perpetual personnel battles, party splits, and other drama; however messy and off-putting, this process is both necessary and constructive.
Anti-Semitism,
the issue that most delegitimates civilizationist parties and arouses
the fiercest debates, requires special attention. The parties do often
have dubious origins, contain fascistic elements, and give off
anti-Semitic signals. Jewish leaders in Europe, accordingly, condemn the
civilizationists and insist that the State of Israel do the same, even
if the civilizationists are in government and Israel must deal with
them. Ariel Muzicant,
honorary president of the Austrian Jewish community, actually
threatened Jerusalem were it to stop boycotting the FPÖ: "I will
definitely speak out against the Government of Israel."
Marine (L) and Jean-Marie Le Pen: Happier times for the father-daughter bond.
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Second,
civilizationist leaders seek good relations with Israel. They visit,
they pay their respects at Yad Vashem, and in some cases (such as the Czech president and the Austrian vice-chancellor)
they support moving their countries' embassies to Jerusalem. Run by the
civilizationist party Fidesz, the Hungarian government has Europe's
closest relations with Israel. This pattern has been noted in Israel;
for example, Gideon Sa'ar of the Likud Party calls civilizationist
parties "the natural friends of Israel."
Corbyn and Orbán, take your pick.
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IN
THE SPACE OF TWENTY YEARS, civilizationist parties have grown from
near-irrelevance to become an important force in close to half Europe's
countries. Perhaps the most dramatic illustration of this ascent comes
from Sweden, where the Sweden Democrats have roughly doubled their vote
every four years: 0.4 percent in 1998, 1.3 percent in 2002, 2.9 percent
in 2006, 5.7 percent in 2010, and 12.9 percent in 2014. It did not
sustain this pattern in 2018, winning just 17.6 percent of the vote, but
that sufficed to make it a substantial force in Swedish politics.
No
other civilizationist party has grown so mathematically but votes and
survey research suggest that they will gain support. As Geert Wilders,
the leader of a Dutch civilizationist party, notes: "In the Eastern
part of Europe, anti-Islamification and anti-mass migration parties see a
surge in popular support. Resistance is growing in the West, as well."
They have three paths to power.
(1) On their own:
Civilizationist parties govern Hungary and Poland. Populations of these
two former-Warsaw Pact countries, who won their independence only a
generation ago and who watch developments in Western Europe with dismay,
decided to go their own way. Both their prime ministers have explicitly
rejected illegal Muslim migrants (while keeping the door open to
Muslims who abide by the rules). Other Eastern European countries have
more tentatively gone down this same path.
(2) Joining with legacy conservative parties:
As legacy conservative parties bleed voters to the civilizationists,
they respond by adopting anti-immigration and -Islamization policies and
join forces with the civilizationists. So far, this has happened only
in Austria, where the Austrian People's Party and the FPÖ jointly won 58
percent of the vote and formed a coalition government in December 2017,
but more such collaborations are likely.
The 2017 Republican
presidential candidate in France moved toward civilizationism and his
successor, Laurent Wauquiez, has continued in the same direction. The
nominally conservative party in Sweden, the Moderates, has started in
the hitherto inconceivable direction of cooperating with the Sweden Democrats. Germany's Free Democratic Party
has moved toward civilizationism. Merkel may still be chancellor of
German, but some in her government have repudiated her reckless
immigration policy; in particular, the interior minister and head of an
allied party, Horst Seehofer, articulated hardline immigration policies and even said that Islam does not belong in Germany.
Five Star's Luigi Di Maio (L) and the League's Matteo Salvini, Italy's odd couple.
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AS
CIVILIZATIONIST PARTIES gain in support and power they open the eyes of
the other parties to the challenges related to immigration and Islam.
Conservatives, whose business supporters benefit from cheap labor, have
tended to shy away from these issues. Leftist parties usually promote
immigration and are myopic about Islam-related problems. Comparing Great
Britain and Sweden, the two European countries most flaccid in the face
of culturally aggressive and criminally violent migrants, very clearly
shows the role of civilizationist parties.
The
former has no such party, so these issues are not addressed; in
Rotherham and elsewhere, sex-grooming gangs (really, rape gangs) in UK
Muslim communities were allowed to operate for years and even decades
with the 6Ps averting their eyes. In contrast, the Sweden Democrats have
so changed the country's politics that the right and left parliamentary
blocs formed a grand coalition
to block them from wielding influence. While this maneuver worked in
the short term, the Sweden Democrats' very existence has induced policy
changes, such as tightening access for illegal migrants.
In
similar fashion, the former Soviet satellites are disrupting the legacy
NATO members. Viktor Orbán, the prime minister of Hungary, stands out
in this regard, with his deep analysis of Europe's problems and his
ambitions to remake the European Union. Hungary in particular and
Central Europe in general are acquiring unprecedented influence because of their stance against immigration and Islamization.
I
hope to have established two fundamental points here. First, that
civilizationist parties are amateurish, raw, and error-prone, but not
dangerous; their advent to power will not return Europe to the "low dishonest decade"
of the 1930s. Second, that they are inexorably growing so that in
twenty years or so, they will be widely serving in government and
influencing both conservatives and leftists. Rejecting, marginalizing,
ostracizing, and ignoring civilizationist parties in the hope they will
disappear will fail. Such steps will not stop them from reaching power
but will, counterproductively, make them more populist and radical.
The
6Ps should accept civilizationists as legitimate, work with them,
encourage them to slough off extremist elements, help them gain
practical experience, and guide them to prepare for governance. But it
is not a one-way street, for civilizationists have something to teach
the elites, possessing as they do realistic insights about sustaining
traditional ways and maintaining Western civilization.
Daniel Pipes (DanielPipes.org, @DanielPipes), president of the Middle East Forum, has researched immigration and Islam in ten European countries during the past year.
Appendix:
The names of civilizationist parties by country. Of countries with
significant non-Western immigration, only Spain and the United Kingdom
lack civilizationist parties with representation in parliament.
Austria: Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (FPÖ, Freedom Party of Austria)Belgium: Vlaamse Belang (VB, Flemish Interest)Czechia: Akce nespokojených občanů (ANO, Action of Dissatisfied Citizens) and Svoboda a přímá demokracie - Tomio Okamura, (SPD, Freedom and Direct Democracy – Tomio Okamura)Denmark: Dansk Folkeparti (DF, Danish People's Party)Finland: Perussuomalaiset (PS, Finns Party)France: Rassemblement National (RN, National Rally)Germany: Alternative für Deutschland (AfD, Alternative for Germany)Hungary: Fidesz (abbr. of Fiatal Demokraták Szövetsége, Alliance of Young Democrats) and Jobbik Magyarországért Mozgalom (Jobbik, the Movement for a Better Hungary)Italy: Lega (League)Latvia: Nacionālā apvienība (NA, National Alliance)Netherlands: Partij voor de Vrijheid (PVV, Party for Freedom) and Forum voor Democratie (FvD, Forum for Democracy)Norway: Fremskrittspartiet (FrP, Progress Party)Poland: Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (PiS, Law and Justice)Sweden: Sverigedemokraterna (SD, Sweden Democrats)Switzerland: Schweizerische Volkspartei (SVP, Swiss People's Party)
Daniel Pipes
Source: http://www.danielpipes.org/18545/europe-civilizationist-parties
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