by Yaakov Lappin
The surprise announcement by US President Donald Trump to pull American forces out of Syria has led to concern that Iran can now complete its “land bridge” from Tehran to Beirut.
President Donald Trump, DOD photo by US Air Force Tech. Sgt. Brigitte N. Brantley
via Flickr CC
BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 1,045, December 24, 2018
In responding to President Trump’s surprise
announcement of a withdrawal of all US forces from Syria on Wednesday,
Israeli PM Netanyahu issued a brief statement that contained two
messages.
“This is, of course, an American decision,” he
said, emphasizing that it is not Israel’s place to tell its senior
partner where to deploy troops. This is an important message to send, as
it shows respect for America’s internal decisions on the use of
military force.
Officially, Israel must not play a part in the argument now raging between the American defense establishment and Trump.
At the same time, Netanyahu’s statement did not
contain any praise for the decision. This reflects real concern on
Israel’s part over how the American exit will affect the regional
balance of power.
“We will study its timetable, how it will be
implemented, and, of course, its implications for us,” said the prime
minister. “In any case, we will take care to maintain the security of
Israel and to defend ourselves in this area.”
These comments are hardly a warm endorsement.
Netanyahu’s statement reflects a veiled warning to the toxic regional
actor that is set to most immediately benefit from Trump’s step: Iran.
The Islamic Republic is working hard to spread its
influence, proxies, weapons, and terrorism across the Middle East. Its
goal is to create a network of areas under its control, filled with
armed organizations, weapons factories, and missile bases. Tehran wants
to build these assets so it can later use them to attack Israel, and to
threaten and extort moderate Sunni states that stand in the way of its
regional hegemony.
The American troop presence in Syria’s east remains part of a “roadblock” to Iranian designs to infiltrate from Iraq.
The Iranian regime and its elite Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) desire a land corridor stretching from
Iran through Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. Control of such a corridor would
enable Iran to move weapons, Shiite militias, and Iranian military
formations from the east into Syria, threatening Israel and Jordan
alike.
The seriousness of the threat was reflected in an
airstrike on July 16 of this year, attributed by international media
reports to Israel. That strike targeted Iranian forces that appeared to
be building such a land corridor. The strike, on a villa on the
Syrian-Iraqi border, reportedly resulted in a high number of casualties
among Iraqi Shiite militia members and Iranian officers.
According to additional reports,
Iran has also moved ballistic missiles to Iraq, placing them under the
guardianship of Shiite militias, which has led to speculation that Israel may launch attacks on Iranian interests in Iraq.
In August of this year, a Shiite militia in Iraq
claimed hostile drones targeted their storage facilities in an
airstrike, though they did not identify the attacker.
Trying to deliver weapons from Iraq
Brig.-Gen. Yossi Kuperwasser, former head of the
Research Division in Israel Defense Forces’ Military Intelligence, said,
“If…the [US] forces in the south are going to leave the area, it would
mean that the [Bashar] Assad forces and the Iranians will have full
control over Syria. This would mean that they may try to deliver weapons
from Iran through Iraq to Syria, and then to Lebanon, and there’s not
going to be anything in between to stop them … that’s where the problem
lies.”
Kuperwasser was referring to American special
forces based near Tanaf, which is close to the borders of Syria, Iraq,
and Jordan. US forces are also stationed further to the north, near the
Turkish border, where they work with Kurdish units.
Kuperwasser, who also served as director general
of the Ministry of International Affairs and Strategy, added, “It’s true
that the original mission, of getting rid of ISIS forces, was more or
less accomplished. But the question was whether to still have US troops
in Syria to take care of the Iranian issue or not.”
Asked whether Tehran would be emboldened by the
move, Kuperwasser responded that “the Iranians are going to be empowered
and feel much stronger,” adding, “it’s not totally clear that the
Islamic State cannot re-emerge, taking advantage of the weakening of
their adversaries in this area, and they can rise again.”
Israel, he stressed, will take any measure it
deems necessary to defend itself and never expected the US to protect it
with forces.
‘It’s a very unstable situation’
“The issue is that we have a common enemy,”
Kuperwasser said, regarding the matter of US troops on the ground in
Syria. “The purpose of the US forces in Syria was to act against those
common enemies – Islamic State, [who are] ultra-radical Sunnis; and
secondly, the ultra-radical Shiites, the Iranians. The American presence
over there was a major impediment in the way of the Iranians, who tried
to turn all of Syria into a territory of control for them. By moving
forces away, it will make it easier for the Iranians to control Syria
entirely. This is not something for Israel to have a say about. It is up
to the Americans to determine their role.”
Russia, which has emerged as a bitter competitor
to the US in the region, will be “very satisfied” by Trump’s decision,
Kuperwasser noted, and “will have more [of a] free hand to control
what’s going on in Syria.” Indeed, shortly after the Trump announcement,
Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomed the move, calling it “the right decision.”
Kuperwasser pointed out that Russia has been
unable to keep Iran away from southern Syria, despite pledges to the
contrary. “They pretend to take care of Israel’s concern. In the south
[of Syria], they just announced again [that] they [had] managed to keep
Iranian forces further away from the Syrian-Israeli border, 100
kilometers away,” he said.
“But the fact is that Syrian forces deployed in
the Golan Heights are not totally Syrian. Some of them are actually
forces that are subordinate to Iranian and Hezbollah command. Though
they have a Syrian identity, they actually take orders from the Iranians
and Hezbollah. This is a situation we are very concerned about, and I
don’t think the Russians are doing enough to make sure that this doesn’t
happen,” cautioned Kuperwasser.
Russia has, however, stepped up efforts to
convince the Iranians not to bring in weapons into Syria. If Russia can
consistently reduce Iran’s weapons’ trafficking, it would help stabilize
the region, he argued.
Still, he warned, “it’s a very unstable situation,
and we will have to wait and see if the Iranians really behave in a way
that keeps the stability and quiet in Syria, and as an extension, if
they turn Lebanon into an unstable area.”
The recent Hezbollah attack tunnels uncovered by
the IDF, and attempts by Iran and Hezbollah to build precision missile
sites in Lebanon, are examples of actions that destabilize the region.
With many question marks remaining, one thing
appears to be clear following Trump’s announcement: Russia will solidify
its control over Syria, and Moscow’s relationship with Israel will be
even more important due to the vacuum left behind by Trump in the
region.
Kuperwasser offered a simple formula for understanding the dynamics of Israel’s relationship with Russia.
“The Russians don’t want to end up facing Israeli
aircraft in Syria,” he said. “The way to avoid it is to make sure that
the Iranians don’t bring weapons through Syria because Israel won’t
tolerate that delivery. The best way to avoid friction is simply to
convince the Iranians not to bring weapons in.”
This is an edited version of an article that was published on JNS.org on December 20, 2018.
BESA Center Perspectives Papers are published through the generosity of the Greg Rosshandler Family
Source: https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/iranian-corridor-syria/
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