by Yaakov Katz
What is happening in Gaza is unique – it is a new form of warfare (urban terrain, extensive Hamas use of human shields, and massive tunnel infrastructure), and still, the ratio is low.
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‘Approved for publication” – three words in English and two words in Hebrew that are painfully etched on the hearts of every Israeli. This is especially true after news broke Tuesday morning about the tragic deaths of 21 IDF soldiers in the Gaza Strip the day before.
For 24 hours, Israel was overrun by rumors, but it was only on Tuesday – about 20 hours after the explosion – when the IDF spokesperson released a statement that had finally been “approved for publication.”
In a country as small as Israel, where so many sons and daughters are serving in and near Gaza, it is almost impossible to keep such news under wraps. This is not a war happening thousands of miles away from home but just a few minutes’ drive from Israeli population centers.
Naturally, due to the number of dead, the incident grabbed the nation’s attention. The heart broke from the stories of the men who had sacrificed themselves to keep us safe. People like Elkana Vizel, a father of four, who wrote to his family not to be sad and to go on fighting until victory is achieved.
What was no less shocking was that even after more than 100 days into the war, Hamas was still capable of carrying out such a successful attack a mere 600 meters from the border with Israel. This was not an attack that took place deep in the Gaza Strip. It was right near Israel.
This naturally drew its own questions. First, was how is this even possible? If Hamas can fire anti-tank missiles so close to the border then what has Israel been doing for the last 100+ days? Second, why were the soldiers even inside the homes that they were lining with mines to destroy? Yes, they needed to be demolished as part of the plan to create a buffer zone in Gaza, but why did soldiers need to go inside? Why weren’t the two buildings bombed from the air?
Regarding the second question, this is being looked into and the IDF said that it was investigating what exactly happened. Nevertheless, there are already elements on the Right who are accusing the IDF of being too soft or caving into some alleged American pressure.
Regarding the first question – how Hamas can still attack like this – the answer is unfortunately simpler and does not require a long probe. This is an asymmetric war against a terrorist organization that is embedded within the civilian population and makes extensive use of long and sophisticated tunnel networks. Attacks like this – hopefully without this number or any casualties – have the potential to continue for years to come.
What this specific attack showed though, was just how complex this war has been from the beginning, despite the declarations from politicians claiming that Israel was going to “destroy” and “eradicate” Hamas or bring back the hostages with military operations. Both statements have been proven wrong and both statements were irresponsible to begin with.
Hamas will not be destroyed in this war and – in the best-case scenario – Israel will either succeed in eliminating the Hamas leadership and bringing down its rule over Gaza or succeed in using military and diplomatic pressure to force the leaders’ exile abroad.
When it comes to the hostages, some politicians have finally started saying publicly have what was known from the beginning – only a deal with Hamas will bring them back. While the military operation can possibly rescue a few, in the IDF there has been an understanding for weeks now that it will not be able to get to them all.
Unfortunately, Israel does not have leadership that tells it the truth and prefers to hide behind bombastic declarations that are far from realistic. This has more to do with their own political future than the war, even if soldiers – like the 21 killed on Monday – are stuck in the middle.
What this requires is a need for the leadership to outline the objective and what the “day after” is going to look like for Gaza, for Israel, and for the IDF. This is crucial, since only by defining the objective can you then draw up an action plan.
Instead, what is happening now is the politicization of the end game. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s opposition to the deployment of the Palestinian Authority in Gaza and a Palestinian state is meant to make the war and the next election about it as well. Netanyahu will say that only he can stop the establishment of a state, while his contenders – whether Benny Gantz, Yair Lapid, or Naftali Bennett – will not be able to. By doing this, he moves the conversation away from his failures that led to the massacre of October 7 to a new reason for why he is still needed.
This is not the way to conduct a war. Israel needs to have a tough and real conversation about what is happening and why. The establishment of a buffer zone in Gaza is another example. The 21 soldiers were killed on Monday while demolishing two homes that are within the kilometer-wide zone. Israelis understand why this is needed – a buffer zone can provide time and warning in case another attack is one day launched – but the world doesn’t.
Sincere leadership would explain that Israel is facing no good options – it can reoccupy Gaza or create the buffer zone. To understand that, the leadership needs to explain what is happening and why, and not just declare that we are on a path to victory. After 112 days, Israelis deserve better.
Explaining the combatant-to-civilian ratio
Another part of this war that requires explaining is the combatant-to-civilian death ratio. What we have seen over the last 112 days is unprecedented in military history.
I’ll explain: The international media regularly quotes Hamas’s claims that around 25,000 people have been killed in Gaza. They, of course, do not differentiate between combatants and civilians.
For argument’s sake, let’s accept the Hamas numbers for a moment, but if we do that, we should also accept IDF numbers that the military has killed around 9,000 combatants (if you accept a terrorist’s numbers please have the decency to accept the democracy’s claims too).
Based on those two numbers, the combatant-civilian death ratio in Gaza is about 1:1.5 and less than 1:2. In other words, for every combatant killed, around 1.5 civilians are killed.
Every loss of civilian life is tragic, but with this ratio, not only should Israel not be accused of genocide (that’s obvious), but actually world leaders should be applauding the IDF’s precision-strike capabilities.
As a point of reference, according to the UN, civilians usually make up around 90% of casualties in war. That’s a 1:9 ratio (one combatant for every nine civilians).
What is happening in Gaza is unique – it is a new form of warfare (urban terrain, extensive Hamas use of human shields, and massive tunnel infrastructure), and still, the ratio is low. What the IDF is doing will be studied by other militaries for decades to come. No other military in the world has ever achieved this.
The writer is a senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI) and a former editor-in-chief of The Jerusalem Post.
Yaakov Katz
Source: https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-783791
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