Monday, April 23, 2012

Iran: Obama Should Avoid Carter's Outcome

by Reza Kahlili

With Iran claiming victory over the West in the 5+1 nuclear negotiations last week in Istanbul, officials of the Islamic regime are again increasing the war rhetoric, vowing that they will not step back from their nuclear program.

And in any military confrontation, Iran's response will be more devastating than imagined, it warned.

At the same time, Iran is calling for the removal of sanctions, calling this the only viable option left for President Obama to save himself.

"The only path left for Obama to avoid a big loss to the Republicans in the upcoming election is to compromise with Iran and immediately remove all sanctions to allow big American oil companies to participate in the Iranian oil and gas projects," said a recent analysis on the Iranian outlet Fadaeian Islam (Devotees of Islam).

"Obama is on a steep decline where his fall is imminent, and even if there is no confrontation with Iran, the oil prices will soon go up by more than $30 (a barrel), which will surely seal the loss of the Democrats in the upcoming elections," the analysis added. "The result of the sanctions on Iran will be less investment in the production of oil in Iran and an automatic rise in prices with a terrible outcome for America, increasing its unemployment."

The unsigned analysis concluded that Obama is in the same "terrible situation" as President Carter was when Iranians stormed the U.S. Embassy in Tehran in 1979 and held 52 Americans hostage for 444 days. "The interesting point is that just like Carter, Obama's future is dependent on his approach with Iran, something that did not work well for Carter."

Meanwhile, Iranian generals did the bidding of the regime according to its war rhetoric. If war should erupt, "Iran will deliver a much stronger strike, more devastating and concise to the enemy," the head of the Iranian army, Gen. Ahmad Reza Pourdastan, said in an interview with the Keyhan newspaper, an outlet under the direct supervision of the Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

"It has been a while that we have witnessed the drums of war by America and Israel against Iran," Pourdastan said, "but when we analyze their statements, we can see that it is more of a bluff and that they currently do not have the ability to engage in war with Iran."

Pourdastan disparages Israel, saying its army was defeated and demeaned in the 2006 33-day war with Hezb'allah and the 2009 22-day war in Gaza, though they used all their military capabilities. "The Israeli army has lost its moral guide, and there is [sic] a lot of internal divisions within that country, and their statements of war against Iran are just to divert attention from their internal rifts," he said.

As for America, its occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq "was with the intention of opening new fronts on Iran and Syria, but we saw how the Americans were defeated in Iraq and had to pack their bags and leave Iraq," Pourdastan said. "But the Americans are facing several problems not only in the region but at home where their economy is in taters and will not allow them to risk another war."

However, the general said, Iran is prepared for war, and America's military superiority will not necessarily guarantee its victory. One way to combat a superior force is to raise the stakes for the enemy, and Iran today is capable of attacking all of America's interests worldwide with devastating consequences for the U.S., Pourdastan said.

Another Iranian general, Ataollah Salehi, warned U.S. aircraft carriers not to enter certain areas in the Persian Gulf designated by the Iranian naval forces as areas of threats to Iran.

"The passage of U.S. aircraft carriers through the Persian Gulf is a publicity stunt and has no military value," Salehi said. "They are soft targets for us."

Reza Kahlili is a pseudonym for a former CIA operative in Iran's Revolutionary Guards and the author of the award-winning book A Time to Betray. He is a senior fellow with EMPact America,a member of the Task Force on National and Homeland Security and teaches at the U.S. Department of Defense's Joint Counterintelligence Training Academy (JCITA).


Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.

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