by Yaakov Amidror
Though not invincible, Islamic State's rampage through the region makes many wonder whether its momentum can be curtailed • The jihadi group has mass appeal and its progress in Syria may soon force the international community to choose between two evils.
Smoke billows over north
Sinai after Islamic State terrorists launch a coordinated assault on
several Egyptian military posts last week
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Photo credit: Reuters  |
Some time ago, I composed a position paper for the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University.
"The Middle East is undergoing radical changes," I wrote.
"The process began after the 1979 Iranian
Revolution introduced Shiite dynamics whose impact on the region is only
now becoming apparent, and it is compounded by radical Islamic forces
that have been brewing underneath the surface since the last caliphate,
the Ottoman Empire, met its demise.
"Radical Islam sees its doctrine as the cure for all that ails the Middle East, and for that matter Muslims worldwide.
"The French and British century-old regional
division has created artificial borders and nations, some of which no
longer exist, and others that are on the verge of collapse. Forgotten
political forces, seemingly obliterated by tyrannical regimes, have
resurfaced, and in many areas, tribal, ethnic and religious affiliations
are now stronger than any national affiliation.
"The Iranian Revolution, the rise of radical
Islam, the Sept. 11 attacks in the United States and the subsequent war
in Iraq and the Arab Spring, which either toppled regimes or
significantly undermined them, are the main events to shape the current
regional reality. This has been compounded by the West and the U.S.'s
weakness, international organization's impotence and the destructive
nature of the local forces unique to each nation.
"The result is complex regional dynamics,
driven by multiple, parallel and sometimes conflicting forces. This is a
fight for the very nature of the Arab nation, and perhaps even over the
very nature of Islam, and it is waged between forces advocating change,
sometimes even anarchy, and those seeking to maintain the status quo.
The one common denominator among these forces is their brutality, as the
terror they spread seems to know no bounds.
"This process is evolving, and therefore we
cannot know how long it will last or what it will bring. This is a wave
of historic proportions, which runs deep and wide, which is why it is
resistant to outside mitigating influences."
When I wrote the paper, Islamic State's
success was far less evident. It had yet to overrun entire areas in
northern Syria, or confront the Egyptian army in Sinai, proving that its
capabilities defy every assessment.
The question remains whether Islamic State's
meteoric rise in the region profoundly changes the geopolitical reality
in the Middle East. More importantly, has its momentum truly become
unstoppable?
We must first remember to keep things in
proportion. Before the Sinai attack, Islamic State never clashed with a
real military, and its battles with what little is left of the Iraqi
army or the well-organized Kurdish militias have taught it the taste of
occasional defeat.
Even its success in Sinai was fleeting, and
once the Egyptian army recovered from the initial surprise, it mounted a
forceful counterattack. The Egyptians suffered losses, and they cannot
counter some of the threats on the ground, but last week's events are
not an example of a resounding victory by Islamic State-affiliated
terrorist groups in Sinai.
The opposite may be true. Egypt is waging war
on two fronts: Internally, Cairo is fighting a critical battle against
the Muslim Brotherhood, whose supporters employ nationwide terrorism
against President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi's regime; while in Sinai it has
to contend with a growing number of terror nests, which have somehow
been allowed to infest the peninsula. And still, the Egyptian army does
not cower from Islamic State.
Understanding that at the end of the day, the
jihadi group and its affiliates have failed in Sinai is important, as it
dims the air of illustrious achievements Islamic State seeks to
cultivate, lending it a more realistic tone.
Nevertheless, we cannot ignore the group's
success in recruiting thousands of people, Arabs and Westerners alike,
from all over the world.
Champions of the Sunni cause
Islamic State's success seems to stem from its
image as the champion of the Sunni cause. It is considered religiously
pure, and its intentions of recapturing Islamic glory of days past by
forming a global caliphate are seen as equally pure.
The organization's call to all Muslims to join
its ranks aims to mimic the Hijra, the Prophet Muhammad's call to
followers to join the journey from Mecca to Medina. Islamic State's use
of sacred phrases is another instrument by which it seeks to recapture
Islam's glorious past and create an appeal based on religious devotion.
The young Muslim generation seeks answers to
questions of identity and their place in the world, and Islamic State
offers them in abundance.
It is not surprising that the group has been
able to thrive in areas that share two major characteristics: They lack
organized state systems and therefore ruled by chaos -- Islamic State's
preferred habitat -- and they are rife with conflicts between Shiites
and Sunnis.
The rise of Islamic State is, in many ways,
the backlash of the Shiite dynamic that has been moving the region for
over 35 years. Given its success in Iraq and Syria, the group has become
a magnet for Sunnis beyond these conflict zones, and Sinai, which is
lacking effective Egyptian control, fits the bill.
A similar development may take place in Syria,
where Sunni groups that are currently not a part of Islamic State may
become affiliated with it, thus doubling its strength in the war-torn
country.
The jihadi group's success in Syria appeals to
many young Muslims, just as Hezbollah's success in aiding President
Bashar Assad's Alawite regime frustrates the rebel groups.
Islamic State's progress in Syria may also
affect the way foreign elements, namely the international community,
view the regional equation.
The battle over Syria is fierce and
relentless, and at this point, chances of convincing either the Alawites
or the Sunnis to agree to some form of interim government are slim. The
Sunni Islamic State is not interested in compromise -- it is too busy
waging a worldwide war of annihilation.
The choice, therefore, will be between two clear
options: finding a way to sustain the Alawite regime in Syria, perhaps
with the support of Iran and Hezbollah, or conceding Syria to Islamic
State and its efforts to destroy, in every sense of the word, those who
do not subscribe to its doctrine, be they Alawite, Christian, Druze or
Sunni. Choosing between these two evils is no easy task.
Yaakov Amidror
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_article.php?id=26777
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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