by Prof. Abraham Ben-Zvi
The last pitfall on the way to a deal is basically about Obama's relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin, which center on the Kremlin's ongoing military activity in the eastern Ukraine and the economic sanctions the West applied to Russia in response. Given this highly charged relationship, the White House has no interest in any step that could even slightly improve Russia's grim economic situation. This is the connecting thread between the Russian-American axis and the current field of negotiations with Iran.
The fact that the
latest deadline for a final nuclear deal between Iran and the world
powers is behind us, without smoke billowing over the negotiating room
in Vienna, is astonishing. After all, there are no signs indicating that
Washington's eagerness for a successful end to the talks has weakened.
In fact, it is the opposite. In recent months, it has become clearer
that U.S. President Barack Obama has made a deal with Iran a main goal
of his legacy. In his view, a deal with Iran will obfuscate all his
failures in the Middle East and herald a new regional agenda, with the
new partner from Tehran at its center.
Obama seems steadfast
in his belief that a conciliatory, compensatory policy based on a range
of trust-building economic steps, will quickly set the regime of
ayatollahs on a moderate, pragmatic path. The carrot of economic
investment and the cancellation of the rule of sanctions will lay the
cornerstone for a strong diplomatic and strategic partnership between
Washington and Tehran, central to which will be the Iranian regime's
willingness to take on a key role in containing the Islamic State group.
To bring that vision to fruition, the Obama administration is charging
ahead toward a final nuclear deal at almost any price, while shutting
its eyes and continuing to put the agreement together, the ongoing
terrorist activity and widespread subversion emanating from the Iranian
capital and spreading out over the entire area.
It's not only that no
link whatsoever between nuclear weapons and conventional and
semi-conventional weapons exists in the almost final version of the
"Vienna Treaty," but also that the nuclear core of the nascent deal is
spotty and full of holes that will give the Iranian regime a golden
opportunity to surge ahead toward a nuclear bomb a decade from now, when
all oversight of the regime comes to an end.
In light of that, the
fact that the official signing ceremony did not take place on July 9 as
expected makes one wonder. The explanation, which is only tangentially
related to the nuclear issue, does not at all indicate that the American
superpower is coming to its senses at last, but is anchored in the web
of U.S.-Russian relations. The last pitfall on the way to a deal is
basically about Obama's relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin,
which center on the Kremlin's ongoing military activity in the eastern
Ukraine and the economic sanctions the West applied to Russia in
response. Given this highly charged relationship, the White House has no
interest in any step that could even slightly improve Russia's grim
economic situation. This is the connecting thread between the
Russian-American axis and the current field of negotiations with Iran.
Russia, which because
of the sanctions in place against it desperately needs foreign currency,
wants a fast entry into the Iranian weapons market. So, together with
China, it is lending its fervent support to Iran's demands that the deal
also lift the embargo against supplying it with conventional weapons,
which the U.N. Security Council decreed in 2006. Especially since a deal
for Russia to sell Iran S-300 surface-to-air missiles by 2007 has been
frozen since 2010. Thus, Russia's growing economic distress joins the
rest of Putin's geostrategic considerations and is creating an
aggressive Russian position in favor of a quick removal of military
sanctions from Iran, which in turn encourages Iranian President Hassan
Rouhani and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif to dig in their heels.
Russia strengthening
its position as an ally and a main weapons supplier to Iran worries the
U.S. The 44th president is steadfast on reaching a deal, and even the
current dispute won't prevent him from achieving his dream, even at the
price of laying the groundwork for an extremist regional power that
would attempt to threaten its strategic environs. There is nothing left
to do but hope that the U.S. Senate, which will have 60 days to
scrutinize the agreement after it is signed, will meet the challenge it
is faced with.
Prof. Abraham Ben-Zvi
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=13143
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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