Saturday, August 22, 2015

Iran's fingerprints are everywhere - Dan Margalit



by Dan Margalit


August may be the hottest month of the year, but hovering above Israel's violent borders and streets one can see the thick, dark clouds that are associated with winter. 

Israel's enemies, however sophisticated, lack a comprehensive mechanism to coordinate their attacks against us. The Palestinian Islamic Jihad has warned Israel it will fire from the Gaza Strip, and this has led the Israel Defense Forces to deploy Iron Dome batteries in the south. Was this threat related to the failing health of detainee Mohammad Allan on his hunger strike? Was Thursday's salvo on northern Israel by Islamic Jihad elements in Syria a consequence of that threat? I believe there is no direct link. 

That said, Iran's fingerprints are everywhere, including in the north. The rockets fired on Thursday were launched from an area ostensibly held by Syrian President Bashar Assad, not the anti-regime insurgents. But Iran has been operating freely in that area. 

Thursday's rocket attack was deliberate. Iran may have seized on Allan's health to time this attack, but it was motivated by other reasons. It wanted to retaliate for the recent killing of a Druze squad that had attempted to establish a terrorist foothold in the Golan Heights and to the repeated airstrikes on Hezbollah-bound shipments of advanced weaponry (widely attributed to Israel); the attack was also designed to bolster the Iranian regime's aggressive posture in the face of increased criticism at home by those who believe the nuclear agreement was a mistake. Iran may have also tried to deal a blow to Israel's tourism industry just before the summer's peak season draws to a close. 

The IDF was left with no choice but to hit back against Assad-affiliated targets, even though the regime was essentially manhandled into launching the attack. 

Assad, the puppet ruler, is not the main villain, but the attack on northern Israel on Thursday was his doing and he did so from an area that is, for all intents and purposes, under Iranian control. 

Thursday's events were just a taste of the new era heralded by the nuclear agreement, which will be defined by an increase in "Made in Iran" terrorism. Even if the deal prevents Iran's nuclearization, it will let the Islamic republic rake in hefty sums from its business partners, and the regime will have been bolstered to perpetrate more terrorism all over the world, including against Israel. 

That new fiscal reality will increase the terrorist threat against Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey and the entire West, not just the Jewish state. Iran will open its checkbook and let the money flow freely to its terrorist proxies. Unlike the Israel Defense Forces, Iran's terrorist elements won't have to deal with proposed reforms to streamline their budget. There is no Persian equivalent to the cost-cutting measures mentioned in the Locker Commission's report on the IDF. 

The IDF has adopted a cautious posture along the Syrian border and off the Gaza Strip. This posture was clearly on display in the measured response to Thursday's attack, which involved airstrikes in Syria. But the latest IDF activity was just a small sample for what's to come. If things continue moving along the same trajectory, the IDF will have to expend far greater resources. 

In light of these ongoing developments, the proposal to cut mandatory military service for men to just 24 months sounds like a bad joke. That would prevent the IDF from utilizing the recruits after investing heavily in their training. Implementing other proposals -- such as reducing the IDF's fighting force (including in the Armored Corps and the Israeli Air Force) -- seems almost unthinkable in light of this reality. 

The proposed budget for 2016 should be revisited to accommodate these added costs. The changes must be introduced before the budget bill is passed, although they will take effect only later.


Dan Margalit

Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=13547

Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.

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