by Dan Margalit
August may be the hottest month of the year, but hovering above Israel's violent borders and streets one can see the thick, dark clouds that are associated with winter.
Israel's enemies,
however sophisticated, lack a comprehensive mechanism to coordinate
their attacks against us. The Palestinian Islamic Jihad has warned
Israel it will fire from the Gaza Strip, and this has led the Israel
Defense Forces to deploy Iron Dome batteries in the south. Was this
threat related to the failing health of detainee Mohammad Allan on his
hunger strike? Was Thursday's salvo on northern Israel by Islamic Jihad
elements in Syria a consequence of that threat? I believe there is no
direct link.
That said, Iran's
fingerprints are everywhere, including in the north. The rockets fired
on Thursday were launched from an area ostensibly held by Syrian
President Bashar Assad, not the anti-regime insurgents. But Iran has
been operating freely in that area.
Thursday's rocket
attack was deliberate. Iran may have seized on Allan's health to time
this attack, but it was motivated by other reasons. It wanted to
retaliate for the recent killing of a Druze squad that had attempted to
establish a terrorist foothold in the Golan Heights and to the repeated
airstrikes on Hezbollah-bound shipments of advanced weaponry (widely
attributed to Israel); the attack was also designed to bolster the
Iranian regime's aggressive posture in the face of increased criticism
at home by those who believe the nuclear agreement was a mistake. Iran
may have also tried to deal a blow to Israel's tourism industry just
before the summer's peak season draws to a close.
The IDF was left with
no choice but to hit back against Assad-affiliated targets, even though
the regime was essentially manhandled into launching the attack.
Assad, the puppet
ruler, is not the main villain, but the attack on northern Israel on
Thursday was his doing and he did so from an area that is, for all
intents and purposes, under Iranian control.
Thursday's events were
just a taste of the new era heralded by the nuclear agreement, which
will be defined by an increase in "Made in Iran" terrorism. Even if the
deal prevents Iran's nuclearization, it will let the Islamic republic
rake in hefty sums from its business partners, and the regime will have
been bolstered to perpetrate more terrorism all over the world,
including against Israel.
That new fiscal reality
will increase the terrorist threat against Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey
and the entire West, not just the Jewish state. Iran will open its
checkbook and let the money flow freely to its terrorist proxies. Unlike
the Israel Defense Forces, Iran's terrorist elements won't have to deal
with proposed reforms to streamline their budget. There is no Persian
equivalent to the cost-cutting measures mentioned in the Locker
Commission's report on the IDF.
The IDF has adopted a
cautious posture along the Syrian border and off the Gaza Strip. This
posture was clearly on display in the measured response to Thursday's
attack, which involved airstrikes in Syria. But the latest IDF activity
was just a small sample for what's to come. If things continue moving
along the same trajectory, the IDF will have to expend far greater
resources.
In light of these
ongoing developments, the proposal to cut mandatory military service for
men to just 24 months sounds like a bad joke. That would prevent the
IDF from utilizing the recruits after investing heavily in their
training. Implementing other proposals -- such as reducing the IDF's
fighting force (including in the Armored Corps and the Israeli Air
Force) -- seems almost unthinkable in light of this reality.
The proposed budget for 2016
should be revisited to accommodate these added costs. The changes must
be introduced before the budget bill is passed, although they will take
effect only later.
Dan Margalit
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=13547
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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