by N. Mozes
March 14 Officials: Iran Must Stop Arming Hizbullah And Demand That It Return The Weapons It Has Already Received Or Else Hand Them Over To The Army
Introduction
Having established its status and presence
in Syria, it appears that Iran, which has a great deal of influence in
Lebanon's political system and daily life via Hizbullah, now seeks to
further strengthen its direct control of the country by infiltrating its
institutions and its vital areas, first and foremost the military and
also energy and health. This is aimed at, among other things, opening up
the Lebanese market for Iranian goods, which have a very limited market
because of the U.S. sanctions on Iran.[1]
On February 6, about a week after the
announcement of the new Lebanese government, in which the pro-Syria and
pro-Iran March 8 camp holds a majority of seats, and on the eve of
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif's visit to the country,
Hizbullah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah proposed to the Lebanese
people that they accept aid from Iran, calling Iran "a great and true
friend who wants nothing from us." Nasrallah suggested importing weapons
from Iran that, he said, would "make the Lebanese Army the strongest in
the region," and pointed out Iran's willingness to supply Lebanon with
medicines and help solve its electricity problems as well.[2] Nasrallah's
statement appears to have been aimed at priming Lebanese public opinion
for Zarif's visit, two days later. Indeed, Zarif himself announced,
upon arriving in Beirut, that his country was "willing to meet Lebanon's
military and economic needs."[3]
In meetings with Lebanese officials,
headed by President Michel 'Aoun and Prime Minister Sa'd Al-Hariri,
Zarif reiterated the offer of aid to Lebanon. In an attempt to dispel
Lebanese apprehensions regarding the ramifications of accepting aid from
Iran because of the sanctions on it, Zarif stressed: "No international
law prevents Iran and Lebanon from cooperating with each other."[4]
He also proposed that Iran and Lebanon work together in arrangements
similar to those that Iran has arrived at with a number of European
countries, and with Russia, Turkey, and China, that would allow Lebanon
to evade punishment for violating the sanctions.[5]
Likewise, in an attempt to underline how Lebanon would benefit
economically from increasing its trade with Iran, Zarif proposed that
transactions would be in Lebanese pounds – that is, Lebanon would not
have to use foreign currency in its dealings with Iran.[6]
This is not the first time Iran has
offered Lebanon military and economic aid. In 2014, it was offered and
rejected, apparently because of a U.S. veto. This time, Iran's task will
be easier because the March 8 camp, headed by Hizbullah, has
strengthened, and the March 14 camp, headed by Prime Minister Al-Hariri,
which is close to Saudi Arabia and opposes Hizbullah, is weakened. The
new government, established January 30, 2019, comprises 30 ministers, 18
of them belonging to the March 8 camp. Also, the new defense minister,
Elias Bou Saab of the Free Patriotic Movement, which is headed by
president 'Aoun who is considered close to Hizbullah, has not said
anything to rule out accepting Iran's proposal.
More than anything else, what happens with
Iran's proposal depends on how much pressure the U.S. and European
countries bring to bear on Lebanon. In recent months, a struggle for
control of Lebanon is becoming evident, with Iran on one side and the
U.S. and its Arab allies on the other. The U.S. had already identified
the risk of a Lebanese government with a pro-Iran majority, and before
its establishment several American officials visited Lebanon to warn
Lebanese officials not to appoint Hizbullah politicians to top
ministerial posts such as health minister, and also to warn about the
ramifications of rapprochement with Iran. It also may be no coincidence
that, days after Zarif's Lebanon visit, the U.S. Embassy in Beirut
announced that the U.S. had delivered to Lebanon precision-guided Advanced Precision Kill Weapons System (APKWS) rockets for the A-29 Super Tucano aircraft, worth $16 million.[7]
Furthermore, in her meeting with Defense Minister Bou Saab, the U.S.
Ambassador to Lebanon, Elizabeth Richard, stressed that the U.S. is the
strongest supporter of the Lebanese Army and would continue to support
it.[8]
In addition, the Lebanese daily Al-Nahar reported
that the U.S. was pressuring the Arab countries to offer aid to
Lebanon, in an attempt to strengthen the March 14 camp and prevent
Lebanon from needing Iranian aid.[9]
It is not inconceivable that these pressures led to the Lebanon visit
by Nizar Al-Aloula, an advisor in the office of the Saudi king, only one
day after as Zarif's visit. In Lebanon, Al-Aloula expressed his hope
that the 20 Lebanese-Saudi agreements already signed would soon be
implemented.[10] Also during his visit, Saudi Arabia announced that it was lifting its travel ban to Lebanon.[11]
Unsurprisingly, Nasrallah's and Zarif's
proposals that Lebanon accept military aid from Iran sparked a heated
debate between the March 8 camp and the March 14 camp. Hizbullah
supporters argued that Lebanon's economic circumstances made it
impossible for it to reject Iran's offer, particularly when practically
nothing was being asked of it in return, and that this was a test of Lebanon's independence of the West. They
stressed that Iran was willing to equip the Lebanese Army with weapons
that could deter Israel and that the U.S. was keeping the Lebanese Army
from obtaining.
The March 14 camp, on the other hand,
argued that accepting Iran's proposal could bring Lebanon into conflict
with the U.S. and Saudi Arabia and thus put at risk the tremendous
amount of aid it receives from the U.S. – aid so large in scale that
Iran would not be able to compensate Lebanon for its loss, particularly
in light of the harsh sanctions on it. They also expressed doubts about
Iran's ability to follow through on its proposals, even if Lebanon did
accept them. Furthermore, they expressed doubts about the effectiveness
of the air defense systems that Iran proposed giving Lebanon, and asked
why Iran was not using them itself to thwart Israeli attacks on Iranian
forces in Syria.
It should be noted that in this debate,
both anti- and pro-Hizbullah elements speculated that Nasrallah and Iran
had made the offer to equip the Lebanese Army because they were certain
it would be rejected – thus providing a pretext for Hizbullah to
maintain its weapons and making it appear to be the only element capable
of defending Lebanon.
Iran's Allies In Lebanon: Lebanon Must Demonstrate Its Independence By Accepting Iran's Offer
As
stated, following the establishment of the government, which is
dominated by the pro-Hizbullah March 8 camp, there were increasing calls
by pro-Iran elements in Lebanon, in particular by Hizbullah, to accept
Iran's offer and thereby alleviate Lebanon's economic and security
problems.
Nasrallah: I Am Willing To Obtain From Iran Everything The Lebanese Army Needs
In his February 6 speech on the occasion
of the anniversary of Iran's Islamic Revolution, Hizbullah
Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah urged the Lebanese people to realize
that the regional balance of power has changed: Iran and the resistance
axis have grown stronger and the U.S. and Israel have considerably
weakened. He therefore called on Lebanon to accept the aid of Iran, "a
great and true friend who wants nothing from us," and added: "I wonder
why we ignore this friend, who can assist in [the areas of] defense,
development and science, and support us in international organizations?
Why do we turn our back to it while extending our necks [in surrender]
to others [i.e., the U.S.] whose attitude towards us is known to all?
The main issue that the [new Lebanese] government will have to address
is that of electricity. Iran is willing to solve this problem [for us]
within a year and at a very low cost. As for medicines, why do we keep
importing them? Why do we remain dependent on others? In the period of
[former Lebanese president Najib] Mikati, an Iranian delegation came and
offered to build tunnels that would solve Lebanon's traffic problems
for 50 years. Did the Lebanese government dare to accept these Iranian
offers? What is Lebanon afraid of?"[12] Nasrallah noted that, if Iran supplied air defense systems to
Hizbullah, some in Lebanon would complain: "If Hizbullah had [such air
defenses], and it were to down an Israeli air force plane attacking
Lebanon... wouldn't many people start complaining that Hizbullah was
dragging Lebanon into a war?" He therefore offered to use his good
relations with Iran to obtain these systems for the Lebanese Army
instead: "As a friend of Iran, I am willing to bring Lebanon air defense
[systems] from Iran... and whatever [else] the Lebanese Army needs to
become the strongest army in the region."
In an attempt to garner public support in
Lebanon for the Iranian offer, Hizbullah officials noted the
considerable aid it has extended to Hizbullah and which, they said, has
enabled it to defend Lebanon. On the eve of Iranian Foreign Minister
Zarif's visit, Nawwaf Al-Moussawi, a member of Hizbullah's faction in
the Lebanese parliament, said that Iran's support for the organization
since 1982 has enabled it "to build a significant missile arsenal. Our
brothers in Iran improved the accuracy of [our] ballistic missiles, and
enabled us to ward off the specter of war [that was threatening] our
country. This was thanks to the power we gained with the help of our
friends in Iran and Syria."[13]
Nasrallah with Iranian FM Zarif (image: almanar.com.lb, February 11, 2019)
Hizbullah Officials: Lebanon Must Not Pass Up An Opportunity To Resolve Its Economic Difficulties
Lebanon's Minister of Parliamentary
Affairs, Hizbullah Executive Committee member Mahmoud Qamati, said
following his meeting with Zarif that "Lebanon is independent in its
policy and decisions, [and welcomes] any country that wants to help it
and support it... If Iran will be the first to offer Lebanon aid, we
will thank it, especially since its aid has no conditions or price
attached to it. We appreciate that there are international pressures [to
avoid accepting Iranian aid]. But [those who are pressuring Lebanon],
what do they want? Do they want Lebanon to remain backward? If they want
to help Lebanon, let them propose solutions [themselves]. This
government is serious, so far, in its desire to solve Lebanon's
problems... first and foremost the problem of electricity." He assessed
that the Lebanese government would take a decision that would suit
Lebanon's interests.[14]
'Ali Da'moush, deputy-chair of Hizbullah's
Executive Committee, called on the Lebanese government "not to miss the
opportunity to receive Iranian support and cooperation – an opportunity
that was missed by previous governments – and [thereby] prove that it
is an independent and sovereign decision-maker, that it does not let the
American veto stop it... and that it heeds the interests of Lebanon
and the Lebanese..." [15]
Lebanese Defense Minister: No Reason To Refuse Iranian And Russian Cooperation
Hizbullah's political allies likewise
welcomed the Iranian offer, most prominently Defense Minister Elias Bou
Saab of the Free Patriotic Movement. In his inauguration ceremony at the
Ministry, he said that he was not against accepting military aid from
Russia and Iran if this would benefit the Lebanese Army: "We welcome
[the help] of any country that is willing to give us the weapons we
need. We need the Russians [to continue providing us] with Russian
missiles and mortars... We welcome [the aid] of anyone who is willing to
help the Lebanese Army with no strings attached." As for Iranian aid,
he said: "We [in the Lebanese military] stay away from politics... The
interest of the Lebanese Army is above any other consideration... The
issue will be discussed in the Army's headquarters and we will accept
[the offer] if we need to. Yes, we are willing to receive aid from
anyone." While stressing that Lebanon wished to maintain its relations
with the U.S., which grants it the largest amount of aid, Bou Saab
added: "In the recent years advanced and high-quality weapons have
become available, [such as] smart missiles and laser-guided missiles... I
repeat once again that the interest of the Lebanese Army is our first
[priority]... and that will be the basis for any decision we take."[16]
Following his meeting with Zarif, Bou Saab
said that Iran understands Lebanon's position and is not pressuring it.
He reiterated that the interest of the Army is the top priority, and
added that "there is nothing to preclude cooperation" with Iran. He made
similar remarks regarding Russia.[17]
Former Lebanese MP Emile Emile Lahoud, the
son of former president Emile Lahoud, contrasted Zarif's visit and the
Iranian offers, which "benefit Lebanon economically and militarily,"
with the visit of Saudi royal advisor Nizar Al-Aloula, which he said was
"degrading" and useless, since it resulted only in the lifting of the
Saudi travel ban to Lebanon but not in any direct economic aid, as
Lebanon had hoped.[18]
March 8 Sources: We Must Refuse U.S.
Aid; If The Army Does Not Accept Iran's Offer Of Air Defense Systems,
Hizbullah Will Take Them
Sources in the March 8 camp called to
refuse the U.S. military aid to Lebanon, especially since, according to
them, the U.S. provides Lebanon only with primitive and obsolete
weapons, and keeps it from obtaining advanced air defense systems, in
order to preserve Israel's air superiority. "The Lebanese people," said
the sources, "must oppose Lebanon's ties with such countries [i.e., the
U.S. and Europe], which aid the Israeli enemy that attacks Lebanon...
Does the Lebanese people [really] want to tighten its relations with the
U.S. and the Western countries that conspire against Lebanon and sever
its ties with countries that help us unconditionally and without
interfering in the decisions of the Lebanese government?" As for the
danger that the U.S. would cease its aid to Lebanon in response to its
tightening relations with Iran, the sources said that they would be
pleased to see this happen.[19]
The proponents of accepting the Iranian
proposal also stated that, if the Lebanese government declined Iran's
offer of air defense systems, Hizbullah would consider itself justified
in acquiring these systems for itself, and then would present itself as
the only one capable of defending Lebanon. Nasrallah, they said,
actually expects the government to decline the Iranian offer, and
relayed this offer only "to fulfill his obligation and avoid being
accused of usurping the right to make decisions about war and peace."
They added: "If the relevant authorities lack the courage to accept the
offer that was expressed by Nasrallah and personally conveyed by Zarif,
this will provide the resistance with further justification to reinforce
its defensive arsenal... Nasrallah will even be entitled to choose the
right time to put an end to the ongoing Israeli violations... and nobody
will be able to blame him after turning down an offer to arm the
[Lebanese] Army with weapons that can stop these violations..."[20]
It should be noted, however, that some in
the March 8 camp had reservations about accepting the Iranian offer. MP
Chamel Roukoz of the Strong Lebanon bloc, which is affiliated with the
March 8 camp, said prior to Zarif's visit that, while the offer should
be regarded in a positive light, there is need for national consensus
and a discussion of Lebanon's defense strategy. About the electricity
crisis, he said that Lebanon could solve it without external
intervention, by means of its gas resources.[21]
Unsurprisingly, Hizbullah's rivals, the
March 14 camp, did not welcome the proposals of Iran and its allies.
Members of this camp argued that accepting Iranian aid would put Lebanon
in violation of international agreements, and warned about the
consequences of tightening relations with Iran, which is under strict
sanctions. In addition, they doubted that Iran could actually follow
through on its offer, considering own economic difficulties, and said
that these were empty promises made for propaganda purposes only. They
also questioned the effectiveness of Iran's air defense systems, given
that Israel is able to attack the Iranian and pro-Iranian forces in
Syria undisturbed, and even urged Hizbullah to return the weapons it has
already received from Iran, or else turn them over to the Lebanese
Army.
In his meeting with Zarif, Lebanese Prime
Minister Sa'd Al-Hariri politely declined the latter's offer, saying
that Lebanon "respects its commitments and agreements with the Arab
world and the international community."[22]
Several days later, in a ceremony commemorating the assassination of
his father, Rafiq Al-Hariri, he took a firmer position, saying: "Lebanon
is not part of any axis and is not a theatre for the regional arms
race. It is an independent Arab state with a constitution, laws,
institutions and commitments towards the Arab [world] and the
international [community], a state that is committed to the policy of
disassociation from conflicts.[23] Any other position is not binding for Lebanon or the Lebanese."[24]
Al-Hariri's meeting with Zarif (image: almayadeen.net, February 11, 2019)
Sa'd Al-Hariri's
advisor 'Amar Khouri said that, in principle, there was no reason not
to consider the Iranian offer, but presented several conditions for
accepting it, including that Lebanon's sovereignty and its relations
with other countries would not be compromised and that there would be no
price attached – conditions which effectively implied a rejection of
the offer. Like other March 14 figures, he doubted the effectiveness of
the Iranian air defense systems, saying: "If Iran has air defense
capabilities, why does it not use them to defend its positions in Syria,
which Israel repeatedly attacks?"[25]
March 14 Officials:
Iran Must Stop Arming Hizbullah And Demand That It Return The Weapons It
Has Already Received Or Else Hand Them Over To The Army
Other
March 14 officials used less diplomatic language. Former Lebanese
president Michel Suleiman warned that accepting Iranian arms could mean
giving up the American aid, amounting to $100 million annually, and
stressed that this offer could not be accepted without international
approval. The only Iranian weapons Lebanon might like to receive are
those already held by Hizbullah, he added.[26] He called on Hizbullah to return its weapons to Iran.[27]
Samir
Geagea, head of the Lebanese Forces party, said that the Iranian
weapons were unsuitable for the Lebanese Army, since most of its
equipment is Western.[28]
On another occasion he said: "If these air defense systems exist... why
didn't [the Iranians] use them against the repeated Israeli attacks on
them, especially in Syria? That is why [I believe] this offer is a lie.
As for medicines, the Lebanese market is open to medicines from all over
the world, but they must meet certain standards and be approved by the
Ministry of Health. Of all the medicines manufactured in Iran, only two
are approved, and they are [already] on the Lebanese market... They want
us to violate the law and [our own] standards and flood our markets
with medicines of uncertain effectiveness... If Iran wants to help
Lebanon in this area it should open its market to Lebanese medicines,
which meet international standards and whose effectiveness is proven."[29]
Former
deputy parliament speaker Farid Makari said that Zarif could take back
the weapons "he [had already] sent to Lebanon without the Lebanese
people's consent instead of urging them to accept his weapons
willingly."[30]
Former
minister Ashraf Rifi, also a member of the March 14 camp and a firm
opponent of Hizbullah, issued a scathing statement in which he accused
Iran of pursuing a "destructive" policy in Lebanon and the region that
has "transformed the reality [of the region's countries] into hell and
their future into a mirage under the guise of the so-called resistance
plan." He wondered why, in the 2006 war between Hizbullah and Israel,
Iran had stood by and had not fired missiles into Israel, but only
"verbal missiles." He called Zarif's visit in Beirut "a provocation that
we reject."[31]
Elie
Mahfoud, head of the Change Movement, said he was confident that the
Lebanese government would not succumb to Hizbullah's pressure to accept
the Iranian proposal. He tweeted: "No matter how powerful Hizbullah is
and how much control it has, and how effectively it manages to unite
parliamentary blocs in order to lend legitimacy to its weapons, it will
not manage to persuade the Lebanese government to import Iranian weapons
and medicines. There are many reasons for this, mainly Lebanon's stance
vis-à-vis its historic allies, as well as its identity and its regional
role."[32]
Lebanese Columnists: This Is An Empty Offer That Must Not Be Accepted
The
Lebanese media identified with the March 14 camp published articles
opposing the offer and calling to refuse it. 'Ali Al-'Amin, a Shi'ite
journalist who opposes Hizbullah, wrote on the Janoubia.com website, of
which he is the editor: "There is no doubt that Lebanon is ill, but the
treatment prescribed by Zarif will not cure it... This Iranian minister
and his government know that Lebanon's illness... is [the conduct of]
the Lebanese state itself. That is why Zarif and the Iranian politicians
who came before him... act to weaken the Lebanese state [still further]
and invest in supporting and funding everything that weakens it...
Minister [Zarif], Lebanon's illness obliges you first of all to refrain
from offering to equip the Lebanese Army." Al-Amin added that Lebanon
did not need Iranian weapons, especially since they have not proved
their effectiveness against Israel in Syria. The cure Lebanon needs, he
said, "is simpler than the arms deals and the medicines offered by Iran,
namely support for the homeland's decisions. As for the weapons that
you [Zarif] think will defend Lebanon against any aggression – you need
only to instruct the Hizbullah leadership, which declares day and night
its religious and political loyalty to your leader [Khamenei], to hand
over all the weapons and all the precise and imprecise missiles it
possesses to the Lebanese Army, and thereby declare, loud and clear,
that Hizbullah must be as loyal to the Lebanese state as you and your
leader are to Iran. Neither more nor less."[33]
Lebanese journalist Randa Taqi Al-Din, a columnist for the Dubai-based daily Al-Hayat,
wrote: "If we look at the details, we will find that Iran is unable [to
provide] the aid, and that Lebanon cannot receive military aid from a
country that is under strict American sanctions. This is especially
[true] considering that, since 2007, the U.S. has granted Lebanon $4.8
billion in aid: $1.7 billion in military aid and $3.1 billion
humanitarian and civilian aid. Last year alone, the U.S. gave Lebanon
$750 million... Zarif's visit was intended to show the world and the
Iranian [public] that the regime of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards
Corps still has a long arm and can intervene and sow destruction in the
Middle East, despite the American sanctions..." Al-Din warned the
Lebanese leadership "to beware any Iranian attempt to exploit Lebanon's
relative stability in order to evade the American sanctions, either by
manufacturing Iranian products in Lebanon and elsewhere, or by other
means that will worsen Lebanon's economic situation."[34]
Rozana Bu Munsif, a columnist for the daily Al-Nahar,
wrote that the Iranian offer may yield a positive outcome in prompting
the Arabs to support Lebanon so as to prevent it from turning to Iran.
She added that the U.S. has already urged several Arab states to support
Lebanon politically and economically.[35]
* N. Mozes is a research fellow at MEMRI.
[1]
It should be noted that in addition to Iran, Russia too has, in the
past year, worked hard to establish its influence in Lebanon, seeking,
inter alia, to advance a Russia-Lebanon military cooperation agreement
that has yet to be signed because of U.S. objections. Likewise, in
January 2019, Lebanon signed a contract with the Russian government
company Roseneft for operating the petroleum port at Tripoli, Lebanon,
and last year seven Russian cultural centers were built in the country. Al-Mudun (Lebanon), January 28, 2019.
[2] Almanar.com.lb, February 6, 2019.
[3] Fars news agency (Iran), February 10, 2019.
[4] Almayadeen.net, February 11, 2019.
[5]
A reference to the financial instruments aimed at allowing Iran and the
countries that trade with it to circumvent the U.S. sanctions, such as
oil for goods deals, or oil for food and medicines, for example the
European INSTEX transactions channel, or transactions in local currency
for oil, as with China and India.
[6] Al-Akhbar (Lebanon), February 12, 2019.
[7] Facebook.com/USEmbassyBeirut/videos/2512137188858537/ , February 13, 2019.
[8] Albawabhnews.com, February 20, 2019.
[9] Al-Nahar (Lebanon), February 13, 2013.
[10] Al-Hayat (Dubai), February 13, 2019.
[11] Al-Mustaqbal (Lebanon), February 13, 2019.
[12] Almanar.com.lb, February 6, 2019.
[13] Almanar.com.lb, February 9, 2019.
[14] Alnashra.com, February 10, 2019.
[15] Alnashra.com, February 11, 2019.
[16] Al-Mustaqbal (Lebanon), February 4, 2019.
[17] Sputniknews.com, February 16, 2019.
[18] Alnashra.com, February 15, 2019.
[19] Al-Diyar (Lebanon), February 9, 2019.
[20] Alnashra.com, February 13, 2019.
[21] Janoubia.com, February 8, 2019.
[22] Almayadeen.net, February 11, 2019.
[23]
In August 2011, as the Syrian crisis came up for debate in the UN
Security Council, Lebanon, which was a Security Council member at the
time and whose government, headed by Najib Mikati, was dominated by
supporters of the Syrian regime, had to take an official position on the
crisis. The Security Council ultimately issued a Presidential Statement
condemning Syria, approved by 14 of its 15 members; Lebanon was the
only member-state that did not support the statement, choosing instead
to "dissociate itself" from the consensus. In this manner, Lebanon
avoided criticizing Syria while refraining from thwarting the
condemnation. Since then, the Lebanese governments have consistently
defined their policy as one of "dissociation" from the Syrian crisis and
from other conflicts in the region, including the one between Saudi
Arabia and Iran. This policy allows Lebanon to avoid taking a definite
stance on these conflicts and to bridge the very significant gap between
the pro-Saudi camp in Lebanon, headed by Sa'd Al-Hariri, and the
pro-Iranian camp, headed by Hizbullah. See MEMRI Inquiry & Analysis
No. 842, Syria's Role In Lebanon's Conflagration, May 31, 2012.
[24] Lebanonfiles.com, February 14, 2019.
[25] Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), February 11, 2019.
[26] Youtube.com/watch?v=wiZJr9LHxxA, February 14, 2019.
[27] Alnashra.com, February 10, 2019.
[28] Al-Jadid TV (Lebanon), February 10, 2019.
[29] Alnashra.com, February 18, 2019.
[30] Twitter.com/makarifarid, February 10, 2019.
[31] Alnashra.com, February 10, 2019.
[32] Twitter.com/MahfoudElie, February 10, 2019.
[33] Janoubia.com, February 11, 2019.
[34] Al-Hayat (Dubai), February 12, 2019.
[35] Al-Nahar (Lebanon), February 13, 2019.
N. Mozes is a research fellow at MEMRI.
Source: https://www.memri.org/reports/dispute-lebanon-over-irans-offer-equip-lebanese-army
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