by Hugh Fitzgerald
At the end of the day, every Palestinian understands that Hamas is headed nowhere
Many terror groups, with Hamas in the lead, have been inciting terror, and have praised the latest attacks on Israeli civilians, but none of them, including Hamas, has claimed credit for themselves. “Hamas is scared out of its wits,” by Eyal Zisser, JNS.org, May 8, 2022:
Some in Israel have described the events of the past month of Ramadan as “relatively quiet,” and expressed the hope that the upcoming “Nakba day,” when Palestinians commemorate the “catastrophe” of the establishment of the State of Israel, and “Naksa day,” when they mourn the Arab defeat in the 1967 Six-Day War, will be similarly “quiet.”
The description is unfortunate not only because 19 Israelis were killed in a series of terrorist attacks across the country in the past month, but because it reflects the Eastern European shtetl mentality, in which Jews lived in fear that their gentile neighbors might “mark” their holidays by inciting pogroms….
At the end of the day, every Palestinian understands that Hamas is headed nowhere — one look at Gaza is sufficient to understand this. The terrorist organization is in charge of the Gaza Strip, and the situation of the local population has never been worse, with very little hope of it improving in the foreseeable future.
In Gaza, economic conditions are terrible. Mismanagement and, especially, colossal corruption in Hamas have brought the economy to collapse. Just two Hamas leaders, Khaled Meshaal and Moussa bin Marzouk, have each managed to steal at least $2.5 billion. Six hundred Hamas millionaires, thieves on a lesser scale, live in villas in Gaza. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate in Gaza is 50%; the poor are understandably in a state of permanent rage against their Hamas rulers.
The PA does not transfer any money to its arch-enemy Hamas. Some foreign donors in the past gave money to Hamas, but most have ended aid not just to Hamas, but also the Palestinian Authority. The EU has this year withheld all aid until the Palestinians remove the antisemitism from their schoolbooks, which the PA has yet to do. The rich Sunni Arabs have also halted almost all of their aid to the Palestinians. The UAE designated Hamas as a terrorist organization in 2021, and will have nothing more to do with it. The Saudis since 2020 have been arresting and sentencing to long prison terms Palestinian and Jordanian members of Hamas in the Kingdom, including such well-known figures as Dr. Muhammad al-Khudari, who received a 15-year sentence purely for his work with Hamas.
Hamas is trying to cause a flare-up in Judea and Samaria and among the Arab Israeli public because it fears a direct confrontation with the Israeli military on the Gaza border, for the State of Hamas will be the one to pay the price for any fighting in the strip. Hamas’s policy projects no sophistication or boldness, only weakness.
Even Yahya Sinwar’s attack on Islamist Ra’am party leader Mansour Abbas is proof that the Hamas chief and his associates fear that Abbas’s policy of integration into Israeli society is gaining popularity among Arab Israelis, and that many Palestinians would prefer Israeli citizenship if given the choice.
Mansour Abbas is the leading Arab Israeli politician, a Member of the Knesset and the head of the Arab Ra’am Party, who is dedicated to bringing tangible benefits to his Israeli Arab constituents. He’s long on accomplishments, short on angry rhetoric. He has won from the Israeli government more aid to combat the explosion of Arab-on-Arab crime, more money for schools, hospitals, and other infrastructure in Arab cities and neighborhoods. The results have been appreciated by his constituents, and Hamas is right to worry that more Arab Israelis are beginning to realize that they have far more to gain through Mansour Abbas’ old-fashioned politicking, of the bring-home-the-bacon kind that Tip O’Neill and Lyndon Johnson practiced, than through the endless warfare, corruption, misery, and defeat that is all Hamas has provided.
Now throughout Israel there have been calls for the targeted assassination of Yahya Sinwar, of the kind Israel undertook during the Second Intifada, as a way to further weaken Hamas. Sinwar is recognized as being an effective leader and inciter of terror. In response to Israeli MKs talking of the need to take him out, Hamas has threatened Israel. A report on Hamas’ threats is here: “Hamas vows suicide bombings, ‘unprecedented response’ if Israel targets its leaders,” Times of Israel, May 7, 2022:
…While Hamas has not taken responsibility for most of the attacks since March 22 that have left 19 people in Israel and the West Bank dead, Sinwar has repeatedly called for Palestinians to assault Israelis and the group has publicly praised the perpetrators, encouraging more attacks.
The terror group also claimed responsibility for an attack that killed a security officer guarding the West Bank settlement of Ariel on April 29.
According to Channel 12 news, diplomatic and security officials relayed a message to Sinwar that the Ariel attack, coupled with his messages championing terror, gave Israel freedom to respond militarily in Gaza.
The message also included a personal threat against Sinwar, whom Israel has termed a “terror supporter” who may be dealt with in kind.
The network reported that the message was sent to Sinwar before two Palestinian terrorists armed with a knife and axe attacked people in the central city of Elad Thursday night, killing three men and injuring seven others.
Hamas has now threatened to start up a campaign of suicide bombings beyond anything the Israelis can imagine if Sinwar is harmed. But these are the usual threats intended to terrify, but long ago lost their ability to frighten Israelis.
In the Jerusalem Post, meanwhile, Herb Keinon asserts that “there are no magic solutions, and that perspective is important these days amid calls to assassinate Hamas head Yahya Sinwar – as if that will be the determining blow that will finally put an end to Arab terror. It won’t.” Keinon adds:
Play the scenario through for a minute.
Let’s say Israel does kill Sinwar – by no means a simple task since all the chatter about resuming targeted assassinations has definitely driven him underground – then what happens?
The Palestinian terrorist organizations have threatened to respond to such a move by going on murderous sprees inside Israeli cities and launching rockets on Tel Aviv, and they should be taken at their word.
Israel will not be deterred by that terror, and would – in retaliation – pound Gaza. And if Palestinians in the West Bank joined the fray, or if Israeli Arabs did so as well, Israel would forcefully put that down as well. There would be Israeli casualties, but the Palestinians would suffer many more.
And at the end of the day, some new Hamas leader would replace Sinwar and again fulminate against Israel, issue various threats, thereby confusing the centuries, and believing that his threats of attacks would frighten the Jews into submission or lessen the resolve of those who live in the Jewish state. But it would not. As Shavit wrote, at the end of the day this only stiffens the people’s resolve….
Herb Keinon has set up a straw man: no one calling for the assassination of Sinwar thinks such a killing will “end terror.” What many Israelis, from the left-wing Meretz to the right-wing Kahanists, is that his constant incitement for Palestinians to engage in murder has been effective – there are 19 dead Israelis to prove it – and that he must be removed from the scene. There must be consequences to such incitement. Targeted assassinations can also discourage others from putting themselves in the same danger. After the killing of four nuclear scientists in Iran by the Mossad, quite a few Iranian nuclear scientists decided to take up teaching, or other careers that would not put a target on their backs. Sinwar’s successor will likely not be quite so enthusiastic about inciting terror. But should he be, then there is no reason why Israel cannot engage in rinse-repeat, as it takes out now this Hamas leader, and now that.
But what about those threats to set all of Israel ablaze with suicide bombings if Sinwar is assassinated? This is the usual bravado, equivalent to the frog that puffs himself up to scare away predators.
Elder of Ziyon has a funny riff on the scariest threat the Muslim Arabs have come up with, which is to “open the gates of hell” if the Israelis, or their friends, do something the Arabs don’t like:
Khaled Al-Batsh, member of Islamic Jihad’s “political bureau,” said, “The assassination of any of the leaders of the resistance, led by Commander Al-Sinwar, will open the gates of hell to the enemy.”
Yawn.
2017 was the last time I listed some of the threats of Palestinians to open the gates of hell if Israel (or the US, or UNRWA) does something they don’t like. All of them have one thing in common: nothing happened.
And they have issued the same threat many times since then. Yet when those “gates of hell” were opened, did anything particularly worrisome happen? No. I don’t think the IDF, or the Shin Bet, or Mossad, are particularly worried about those gates of hell being opened.
Of course Israel should take action against Sinwar. He is directly inciting murders of Israelis, and is taking responsibility for inciting them. He needs to be punished. His successor needs to be scared.
Hugh Fitzgerald
Source: https://robertspencer.org/2022/05/hamas-on-the-skids-sinwar-puts-on-a-brave-face
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