by Yonah Jeremy Bob
While Israel may also get some improved terms in negotiations with Hamas, the most important elements here are: IDF Chief Eyal Zamir, Trump, and the 12-day Iran war.
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With senior sources telling The Jerusalem Post the defense establishment wants the war to end within two to three weeks, and US President Donald Trump pushing for a potential end even sooner, might the current dizzying Middle East conflict of 20 months finally come to an end?
Or will continued opposition from Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir once again extend the war?
Alternatively, might Israel and Hamas reach a third temporary ceasefire, which only freezes hostilities for two months or longer, but with the sides eventually resuming the conflict later in 2025 or early 2026?
In addressing the issue, the first question is: Why might the war finally end this time, when earlier negotiations – November 2023 (first ceasefire), May 2024 (close to a deal), August 2024 (close to a deal), and this March (second ceasefire) – did not end it?
While Israel may also get some improved terms in negotiations with Hamas, the most important elements here are: IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir, Trump, and the 12-day Iran war.
Halevi wanted to end the war in late 2024 and in early 2025 as part of a grand deal to get back all of the hostages, and he butted heads privately and publicly with the prime minister over it.
Ultimately, Netanyahu believed he could ignore Halevi as well as former Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) director Ronen Bar – not only on ideological grounds of different visions of Gaza postwar, but also because he could use the October 7 massacre to frame Halevi as being weak.
In contrast, Zamir has conquered 75% of the Gaza Strip in a matter of months, as he said he would do, and he just took a sledgehammer to Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic-missile program, and military high command.
If Netanyahu could frame Halevi’s push to end the war as premature, and if he also felt like his image as “Mr. Security” was still too shaky to fight off opposition by Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, the context is very different now.
Zamir can say that he pulled out all of the stops that Halevi would not, and that the Biden administration would likely have blocked: taking over 75% of Gaza, as opposed to penetrating temporarily into Gaza and then withdrawing; cutting off new humanitarian aid to Gaza for about two months; and cutting off Hamas’s control of food aid in central and southern Gaza by using the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation to distribute it.
And he was willing to do all of this despite concerns by some that these moves would endanger the remaining living 20 Israeli hostages.
THIS MEANS that Zamir can uniquely argue to Netanyahu that any further taking over of the remaining 25% of Gaza areas would inherently endanger the hostages, since these are the areas where they would be being held. It would be hard to ignore him.
Moreover, Zamir just took down Israel’s toughest foe in the Middle East, so any attempts to attack him as weak or afraid of going far enough would likely be quickly dismissed by the public.
Therefore, Zamir can press to receive back the remaining hostages even at the cost of ending the war – which media leaks have attributed to him, and the Post can independently confirm his position – without suffering the same character assassination that greeted Halevi.
A change for Netanyahu's image
The Gaza takeovers and the Iran victories are also a big deal for Netanyahu’s image.He and his lieutenants have been messaging that by defeating Iran’s nuclear program and harming its ballistic-missile program and leadership – the “head of the snake” – he has been fully redeemed from his role as prime minister during the October 7 massacre.
And then there is Trump.
He green-lighted Israel’s attack against Iran and then went a major step beyond, dropping several mega-bunker-buster bombs on the Fordow nuclear facility and other bombs on two other nuclear facilities.
Trump also allowed Israel, Netanyahu, and Zamir to carry out its most aggressive moves against Hamas over the past few months, which former US president Joe Biden would never have allowed.
So, when he turns around to Netanyahu and says, “Time is up,” it will be much harder to say no.
This is without even mentioning that the world knows how quickly Trump can turn on a former ally who disappoints him.
In the face of these new circumstances, Smotrich and Ben-Gvir’s opposition to ending the war is unchanged.
Nevertheless, Netanyahu’s readiness to confront them – possibly even cutting a deal with the opposition to gain outside support in exchange for setting early elections in 2026 (the latest elections can go is October 2026) – may have changed radically.
There might even be scenarios in which National Unity chairman Benny Gantz, who is now in the opposition, could rejoin Netanyahu given his political problems, especially if it was part of taking credit for new Sunni normalization deals and a freeze to the judicial overhaul push.
Then again, if Netanyahu’s sole priority is trying to ride out his term to the end, he may still order Zamir to take over the rest of Gaza and continue the war – either with no stopping point, or after a multi-month ceasefire like the one at the start of this year.
If he does that, and hostages die, he would likely find pressure from Zamir on the issue much more politically challenging or damaging than his public confrontations with Halevi.
Yonah Jeremy Bob
Source: https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-859949
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