by Dr. Gabi Avital
The winds of war are
indeed blowing in the north. For two years, these winds have rained dead
and wounded deep inside Syria; other winds are blowing far from
Israel's border. The media is focusing the spotlight on one possible
scenario, a complex one, that could, God forbid, lead to actual
hostilities. Winston Churchill would have called these winds "the
gathering storm."
Is this really the
case? Forty years ago, the Syrian and Egyptian armies conducted
expansive joint exercises. The Israeli defense establishment was
concerned that when the exercises concluded, those armies would turn to
war with Israel. Reserve forces were called up, units were deployed, and
in doing so a war was averted that no one was sure would ever have
started in the first place. A similar drill was conducted for the second
time, six months before the Yom Kippur War, and that time, too, reserve
forces were drafted and units were deployed. The third time, after the
Israel Defense Forces had become sick and tired of the "run-around," the
war began.
Similar situations have
frequently occurred since then. The last time was during Operation
Pillar of Defense, Israel's week-long military offensive in the Gaza
Strip last November. Reserve units were called up; the standing army
prepared its weapons. Despite the disappointment felt by some of the
fighting soldiers, an unnecessary (for the conditions at the time)
ground incursion was avoided. After the blow Hamas received in Gaza, the
subsequent period of quiet in the south has been the longest in the
last two decades.
All the commentary
until now has been in praise of the deterrence Israel achieved. The
wisdom of statesmen is to navigate the warship at full strength but with
a finger on the safety switch. The wisdom behind waging warfare is
knowing how to avoid it. Deterrence doesn't exist in thin air; it has
cost us much blood. The State of Israel has military capabilities which
are able to neutralize, within a matter of hours, the entire military
and civilian infrastructure in Syria and Lebanon (as well as
Hezbollah's). This is a proven capability.
One of the important
objectives, if not the most important, is to paint a clear picture of
the price that states or organizations will pay if they seize weapons of
mass destruction. The army must be prepared so it can act quickly and
decisively, if this theoretical deterrence proves ineffective.
The situation in the
north isn't Israel's fault; much of it is due to an almost forgotten
history: The Golan Heights, which comprises 0.6 percent of Syrian
territory, is a geographical and psychological obstacle standing before
those who wish to set the region ablaze. The crooked land-for-peace
formula sounds so ridiculous now; today this land is the very thing
preventing war. The concern over war with Syria is exaggerated. Those
who think that salvation and betterment will come to Syria by waving the
Golan issue need to think again.
A war machine, which at
any given time is supposed to emerge victorious by inflicting maximum
enemy casualties against minimum casualties for its own side, is a
necessity. From Cain's killing of his brother, up to the weapons of mass
destruction in our times, the establishment of the war machine and its
continual development on a daily basis is to ensure one of two goals:
Increasing the size of the "empire" through the necessary employment of
warfare, or creating a deterrence force strong enough to prevent war.
Now is the time to restrain the war machine.
Dr. Gabi Avital is chairman of Professors for a Strong Israel.
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=3336
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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