by Barry Rubin
Something both positive and revealing has just happened and while
it undermines one prediction of mine it reinforces another. I’m
delighted to see it.
I predicted that since Egypt’s ruling Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt
is a radical, Islamist group that wants to wipe Israel off the map and
the ruling Hamas group in the Gaza Strip is part of the Muslim
Brotherhood as well as also being a radical Islamist group and wants to
wipe Israel off the map that the Egyptian regime would cooperate with
Hamas in fomenting terrorism against Israel by facilitating the flow of
arms, money and terrorists to the Gaza Strip. for that purpose.
In fact, though, it has now become clear that the Brotherhood
regime is stopping weapons and other things from entering the Gaza
Strip. (As did its predecessor, the Mubarak regime.)
But why, given that my above-explained chain of reasoning is true, is this happening?
The answer lies in another point I’ve made: That many revolutionary
Islamists are over-confident (partly in the face of a weak United
States; partly due to their ideology that puts the deity, literally, on
their side, and partly because of the big gains they are making
throughout the region and even the world.
These groups also bicker and even fight among themselves, most
notably but not exclusively due to Sunni-Shia conflicts. So radical
Islamist groups overreach and thus suffer self-inflicted defeats.This is
what’s happening with Hamas. The Muslim Brotherhood’s reasons are is
not benign. It seeks to consolidate control over a highly populated
country and fundamentally transform it into a Sharia state under the
Brotherhood’s perpetual rule. Hamas, however, by its nature, cannot
accept Islamism in one country (to paraphrase Stalin). [Note below]
Hamas isn’t interested in building up a Sharia state in the Gaza Strip
as its main goal because it seeks to conquer Israel and the West Bank.
The reason, then, why the Brotherhood is stopping more aid or
encouragement to Hamas is that the Egyptian regime doesn’t want a war or
even a high level of conflict now. A second reason is simply that Hamas
has become entangled with smaller radical Islamist groups that are
waging armed struggle against Egypt, seek to overthrow the Egyptian
government, and stage (without Egyptian permission) attacks against
Israel across the Egypt-Israel border.
Here’s the key statement from
Issam al-Haddad, a senior Brotherhood official and a presidential
advisor on foreign policy, that the flow of weapons to Hamas (and then
back into the Sinai terrorists) will undermine stability in the Sinai
Peninsula.Another factor cited is the need to fulfill Egypt’s obligation
under the ceasefire agreement it helped broker between Israel and
Hamas. U.S. pressure to keep this pledge was an incentive. This is to
the credit of the Obama Administration.
Yet one wonders how cooperative the regime would be if Hamas had
not antagonized it by doing more to stabilize Egypt than it did Israel.
I’m not saying Hamas did this on purpose but merely that the small, even
more radical groups it uses as fronts to strike against Israel also do
other things. And one further wonders what would happen if Hamas clamped
down on its junior partners and protected Egypt from Gaza-based
destabilization.
Whatever the balance of reasons, this greatly reduces the threat to
Israel from Hamas for the coming months or even years. At the same
time, the Syrian civil war and the growing hatred by the rebels against
Hizballah, which supports the dictatorship, is also undermining Israel’s
main enemy to the north. With Iran still not having nuclear weapons
that means Israel’s security situation is in excellent shape.
Another factor cited is U.S. pressure. Presumably this is in
connection with the ceasefire agreement in which Egypt promised to shut
down the arms’ flow. This is to the credit of the Obama Administration.
(Of course, the Brotherhood is compliant because that helps it gobble up
Egypt faster and easier, not to mention with Westerns financial
subsidies.
But one must also note that things could change in future,
especially with the Brotherhood confident once it has Egypt, the Gaza
Strip, and Syria. Remember that the nationalist regime went through a
parallel cycle. Gamal Abdel Nasser’s movement seized control over Egypt
in 1952 and took 15 years to get around to seeking confrontation with
Israel, though within four years such a confrontation seemed possible.
For the time being, however, the situation looks better.
Barry Rubin
Source: http://www.gloria-center.org/2013/03/good-news-war-postponed-egyptian-muslim-brotherhood-angry-at-hamas-cuts-off-weapons/
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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